Seeing a lot of terrible takes on the deGrom signing
Putting this info out there to try and improve the takes in the future
It’s probably in vain, I know.
But, I’m an optimist
>[The Rangers] surely don’t expect to get 32 starts a year – if you could expect that of deGrom, his contract would have been meaningfully larger. For a team that is short on starting pitching and on the fringes of playoff contention, though, every extra start counts.
>Before signing deGrom, the Rangers looked like a .500 team. That’s not good enough to make the playoffs, even in the expanded postseason era, but it’s not far off. Adding deGrom puts them in a position to compete for a postseason berth immediately. Are they challenging the Astros for first in the AL West? Certainly not. But that’s not the minimum bar anymore. Eighty-six wins was good enough for a playoff spot in the AL last year, and 87 was good enough in the NL. The Rangers might not be a slam dunk playoff team, but they’re already in the running, and I expect that they’ll make some outfield improvements before next year to round out the offseason.
>Before this signing, I’d convinced myself that playoff locks were deGrom’s natural suitors. If you’re very likely to play in October, missed innings in the regular season hurt less. Assuming he’s healthy come playoff time, no player in the game offers a bigger advantage in a short series.
>When you put it that way, though, teams that are gunning for a Wild Card berth and a best-of-three series should want deGrom even more. If you think having the best pitcher in a five-game series is a big deal, imagine applying that to a three-game series. Sure, maybe he could throw twice in the five-game version, but if I were the team signing deGrom, I’d be giving him as much rest as possible, and one out of three beats one out of five.
Reasonable people can disagree on whether this was a good deal for the Rangers or not.
So, try to make reasonable arguments.
6 comments
I don’t care as I‘m neither a Mets fan nor a Rangers fan. What does it mean to look like a .500 team? We do keep track of wins and losses, this is what determines a .500 team. So they lost 94 games, do any of the teams that lost between 81-93 games look like .500 teams? I bet they do. Or does that not matter?
Later, they say assume he‘s healthy playoff time. I‘m now making 2 assumptions: he’s healthy come playoff time and the Rangers make the playoffs. Big assumption.
Last, I’m told that regular season starts matter less if you make the playoffs. Since the Rangers (accordingly the author) look like a .500 team, they’ll need every start they can, since .500 isn’t getting to the playoffs.
I’m glad deGrom got his money, since I always like to see players get paid. That doesn’t mean this was an amazing move. It sounds like PR spin.
I think it’s ridiculous that so many people claim to have a clue as to whether or not this is a good deal.
Signing a player like DeGrom (or Harper, Machado, Judge, Correa, Trout, Cabrera, Pujols, Stanton, etc) is about more than on field performance. Do we all think the owners of these franchises are just winging it when committing to these huge contracts? Absolutely not. They have done plenty of analysis and forecasting and determined this is how they add the most value to their business. They do not give a shit what any analyst or talking head thinks.
The Harper contract has already paid for itself and then some. Judge will pay for his contract within 3 years. If DeGrom can get the Rangers into a few post season series, the $185m will have been well worth it. As far as I’m concerned it’s worth the risk.
Degrom is a consummate professional and on a per inning basis*, is the best thing out there. Lots of known unknowns like his medicals, the quality of the med staff evaluating the records, the Rangers internal projections for him (in terms of what they expect from him realistically)
The Rangers are being run like a clown show right now, though. It will get more butts in seats, however, counting on being just over 500 and sneaking in to playoffs is a poor strategy IMO.
Soooo, Ben Clemens thinks that de Grom would have gotten Scherzer money or more if the Rangers DID expect 32 starts a year from him?
Second, it’s delusional to think that a starter who may only pitch 2/3 of the time is going to close the gap anywhere near that much by himself.
Lemme see.
Rangers won 68 games last year. (And, that was NINE games below Pythag, per B-Ref, not a good sign.) Won 60 in 2021. 22-38 in COVID 2020.
IMO, they could have spent this month better.
no way signing degrom makes them a playoff team, rangers are looking like a .500 team
I can see them winning as much as 86 games, but I don’t know if that will be good enough for a wild card spot in the AL. The Mariners, Orioles, Yankees, and Blue Jays all have shots at 90 wins.