How will the new Buffalo Bills offense without Stefon Diggs impact the performance of Josh Allen?

How will the new Buffalo Bills offense without Stefon Diggs impact the performance of Josh Allen?

it’s time for herd mentality the weekly episode where you control the discussion today on lock on [Music] bills you are locked on bills your daily Buffalo Bills podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday what’s up bills Mafia it’s Joe Marino author of go bills and Buffalo’s run also the co-host of the locked on NFL scouting podcast and I’m your host of lock on bills want to thank you for making locked on bills your first listen every day and a big welcome and shout out to our every dayers you know who you are those of you who never miss a single episode I appreciate y’all being here very very much I’d also like to invite you to subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast we’re part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel make every moment more right now new customers can get $200 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet that’s $200 in bonus Bets with any winning five bet just visit fanduel.com lockon to get started well folks welcome in have a great slate of herd mentality items to get to some stuff about Josh Allen and how he’s going to function in this new look offense the most improved position group on the team the safety pairing T Higgins versus Keon Coleman that’ll be fun some roster building stuff uh Tyler bass we’ll talk about that a little bit and even my projected week one in active so so many things coming your way today let’s get into it the first one is from Tommy and I think Tommy has a question that um highlights what I think a lot of Bill’s fans are thinking right now and so I’m gonna read this from Tommy and then of course add my commentary to it here’s what Tommy said so I keep getting into the same argument with my buddies round and round in circles like good Bills fans do I’m of the opinion that although there’s a drop off on Talent on paper Josh Allen is in better position to exceed with his current wide receiver room as opposed to last year I find this new group of diverse and hungry mouths to feed as an exciting new opportunity in perhaps just what the doctor ordered my friends think I’m being a blind Optimist or company man as the saying goes they’re down on the fact that we got rid of our only Bonafide number one wide receiver and replac him with a group of number twos and Bargain Bin unknowns I know from listening to this podcast that you tend to lean towards my point of view my question is do you think if we were on the outside looking in as non- Bills fans we would be laughing at the current situation 30 mil in dead C uh dead cap for Diggs no one to replace him tons of Playmakers and vets lost to free agency Etc and writing them off as Prime to surely regress this season is it only because of ours our bill buffalo Rose tinted glasses that we’re seeing the the best in this situation my prediction is that by week six or seven the Buffalo Bills are going to be full of positive energy and having one of their best seasons of the Josh Allen era and all the jaded Debbie downers will be frowning in the stands like Randy Quaid in Major League 2 maybe I’m going a bit overboard here what are your thoughts this is I think this is exactly where a lot of people are and I’ll tell you what I am excited to see Josh Allen function in the new offense I think the unknowns make it interesting the unknowns make it appealing we know what the last iteration of the Buffalo Bills could do they can win the division they could win a playoff game maybe two and then lose when they got to a game against the Chiefs or the Bengals that’s what we learned for four years in a row and so yeah I’m excited to try something different and while you look at different and maybe on paper as you outlined it’s not quite as good but maybe despite not having the same level of talent there’s plenty of reasons to be excited about what this team can do and maybe even go further than they have over the last four or five seasons and I think what’s kind of lost in this overall conversation about the Exodus of talent that the bills have had is that they were aging and expiring players like we all love Mitch Morris and Jordan puyer and Micah Hyde but those guys weren’t what they’ve been travius white hasn’t played in two years Stefan digs stunk out loud down the stretch I mean this is part of transition in the NFL this is what happens guys get older salary cap dictates new Dynamics and new decisions and at different points in your life cycle as a team you have to make different decisions and so it’s not like they walked away from vintage employer right or vintage Stefan Diggs it wasn’t those that caliber performance over the last couple of years or the most recent stretch of time and again I think that the unknowns are appealing and I’ll be honest with you in kind of seeing the reaction to the bills and the decisions that they’ve made this off season I’ve I’ve realized that there are two types of analysts and I’ll be completely candid with you I don’t consume a lot of football analysis right I just don’t maybe occasionally something that comes across my timeline I might watch it or maybe there’s a YouTube video or something that pequs my interest and I might watch that but for the most part I don’t really spend a lot of time consuming football uh analysis I spend a lot of time studying film and I spend a lot of time studying statistics and teams and developing my own opinion so I don’t have a great pulse on what’s going on in terms of what’s being set out there but from what I have been able to gather I I find there to be two different types of an analysts those who look at things at a surface level and then just react right and just kind of ride the wave and uh lean into whatever the trendy whatever the trendy talking points are and then there’s those who actually take a deep deeper look at a situation and ask themselves why right why are teams making the decisions that they do why did the Bills make the choice to move on from Stefan Diggs and Jordan puer and Micah Hyde etc etc they didn’t do that because they just wanted to become a worse football team there’s reasons for it and some of them are just bigger than football and I think you can listen to Josh Allon other players the coaching staff and realize that the makeup of this football team is a little bit different uh based on that commentary and talking about how important it is to be unselfish and uh be a team and play together and and do the little things right you can definitely sense that as a theme in listening to the players and coaches speak to this point in the offseason now going back to your question here Tommy and the the head space that you find yourself in I think it is the optimistic there’s no doubt about it but it’s it doesn’t mean it’s wrong it’s interesting it’s appealing you still got Josh Allen and leaning in on the Stefan digs talking point because I think that’s where most people get hung up while Josh Allen doesn’t have a number one wide receiver well the bills didn’t move on from 2020 Stefan digs they moved on from 2023 Stefan dicks and for as good as he started 2023 from week seven on he was not very good from week seven on as I’ve said repeatedly on 60 less targets khil Shakir outproduced Stefan dicks from week seven on let’s look at Stefan Diggs numbers over that stretch 111 targets from week seven on that’s fifth most in the NFL so plenty of opportuni still going to Stefan digs came away with 68 catches a reception percentage of 61.3% 636 yards three receiving touchdowns 1.4 yards per route run that’s terrible 10.2 average depth of Target so you didn’t get a much down the field from him a 99.3% drop rate and Josh Allen had a passer rating of 78.5 when throwing the ball to Stefan Diggs from week seven on that’s not good and if you look at that through this lens so some of those metrics I want to highlight where they fall among the overall landscape of wide receivers so there was 32 receivers in the NFL that from week seven on had 70 or more targets here’s where ston Diggs ranked with those 111 targets that’s the fifth most the 61.3 reception percentage that’s 24th the 1.4 yards per route run that’s 31st the 10.2 average depth of Target that’s 24th the 99.3% drop rate that’s 27th out of 30 32 the passer rating of 78.5 that’s 30th so I’m okay moving on from that I don’t want to funnel that volume of targets to that level of production so yeah I’m excited about the unknowns and I’m excited that the Catalyst the actual Catalyst for the offense khil Shakir D King Kade James cook those guys are all back and that there’s been more depth added to this mix so yeah is it The Rosy perspective sure that absolutely is but it doesn’t mean it’s the wrong perspective and I think it’s completely reasonable to say yeah there’s some unknowns unknown elements about this football team but I’m intrigued by what it can do I’m intrigued by the newness and the unknown variables and that should make for a really exciting 2024 season what’s the worst thing that’s going to happen the bills aren’t going to win the Super Bowl is that the worst thing that’s going to happen well they never have folks so put on the board for another year where the bills don’t win the Super Bowl but at least there’s a new Direction a necessary New Direction based on some of the age of this roster and how the salary cap has aligned in working towards that next era of Josh Allen football with the Buffalo Bills that’s what this is all about no idea how it’s going to work out but that’s what makes it very interesting and exciting for me all right we got a lot more to get to and just like last C mentality I spent more time than I ever thought on the first question so uh we got a bunch more to get to so be sure to stick with me summertime means baseball the NBA finals and more and you can bet on all of it over at FanDuel right now new customers can get $200 in bonus Bets with any winning $ five bet that’s 200 bucks that you can use to bet on everything from who’s going to be the MVP to who’s going to hit a home run all over at FanDuel they’ve also got some fun Bill stuff that you can check out they have the bills at plus60 to win the AFC East they had the Bills win total the over under set at 10 and a half you can check that out also Josh Allen to be the NFL MVP the odds for that is plus 800 so check it out visit fanduel.com lockon and at a big win to your summer bucket list FanDuel America’s number one Sportsbook all right folks the next one here comes from Chris I like this question a lot Chris said now that you’ve gone over all sides of the ball and told us how you feel the bills have gotten better or worse what position group as a whole do you think has had the greatest improvement from last season heading into this coming season and to remind you guys last week Monday and Tuesday I went through every position and I asked myself are the Bills better right now or were they better in 2023 and to answer this question from Chris I think the position group that had the greatest improvement from last season coming into this season is Def defensive tackle and I know Ed Oliver and dayquon Jones are the same but the depth in my opinion is way better I didn’t think much of Tim settle or Jordan Phillips I don’t think those are very good football players I think they’re replacement level depth players and those guys have played a lot of football over the last couple of Seasons I think you have significantly upgraded those guys with Austin Johnson did sea Williams and Dwayne Carter I mean Tim settle Jordan Phillips and lynval Joseph SL Puna forward swapping them out for Austin Johnson DeShawn Williams and Dwayne Carter I like that so much better I think you have a legit player in Austin Johnson in terms of an agap Defender that can play in relief of dayquan Jones that I think for some teams could probably start I think he’s a quality de player I really like what I saw on tape from deshun Williams and I think he can be even better as a three technique and a penetration style role and then of course you have a good-looking young rookie and Dwayne Carter give me that over Tim settle and Jordan Phillips I got so tired of watching those guys and they played a ton so here’s the deal maybe you’re thinking well Joe this is really what you’re talking about the depth that defensive tackle yeah I’m talking about it in 20203 non Ed Oliver and dayquon Jones snaps that equaled 1,145 in 2022 nonan Ed Oliver and dayon Jones snaps as 849 and I know that last year was probably inflated a bit because dayquon Jones missed a big stretch of time so you’re still but you’re still looking at 800 900 snaps at defensive tackle they’re going to be taken by other players than dayquon Jones and Ed Oliver and I think you have significantly put better players in position to take those snaps this year so that’s that’s a big part of of what gets me excited for this year and where I feel like the team has made the greatest level of improvement the next one here comes from Nate a good question here from Nate he says my question uh concerns the safeties one of the things that appeared to make he high and puyer so good was not only that they were such great individual players but they also complemented each other’s skill sets so well for our current set of potential starting safeties rap Edwards Bishop what are their strengths and assuming for sake of the discussion that each reaches a reasonable level of play which two safeties most naturally complement each other as a pair of starters good question here and I think you’re you’re exactly right Jordan puyer Micah Hyde individually great players but also they complimented each other well and I think where their complimentary nature really shined excuse me is that they are both interchangeable I think that you could look at both puyer and Hy and say you want to play him in the high post as a single high center fielder they can do it they can play as a low safety in the Box they can play split zones in coverage they could play in the slot and I think vintage HDE employer could do any of those roles and so that the complimentary nature of them was because of how interchangeable and versatile that they are now I still think you go get M mikah Hy and say yeah that guy was at his best as a high post center fielder and you can look at Jordan puer and say he was at his best as a low safety playing in the box and so while they were still interchangeable they still had their own individual ual areas where they Shine the most when I look at this group I think the most complimentary safety pairing is Mike Edwards and Taylor R but I do think that there’s a missing skill skill set across the board here and it is in that center field one high you know the high post ability Mike Edwards is the guy that I feel the best about doing that I like him most in those deeper alignments so any complimentary pairing includes Mike Edwards as one of the safeties because I think he’s the best deep Zone Defender and then I think Taylor rap is the guy that’s best positioned right now to come in and be the more low safety that complements that I think they’re less interchangeable because I don’t necessarily love Taylor r as that deep Zone Defender I think Mike Edwards is the guy that I trust the versatility a little bit more now we know the future here is Taylor rap and Cole Bishop Cole Bishop second round pick Taylor rap threeyear EXT ention so between that group what I’m very curious to find out is who becomes the guy that you trust in those deeper zones because both of those guys project best to me as lower safeties that you want to play Closer to the line of scrimmage ask them to play downhill maybe do some man-to-man coverage against tight ends but are they really high post safeties I think that’s where my question comes so Mike Edwards and Taylor R Mike Edwards and Cole Bishop is where I land on that Tom has a good question here the questions are really good this week I I think the offseason allows us to get a little bit less focused on singular things and you get kind of big brained a little bit and I think the questions are so good this one’s a good one from Tom Tom says could you compare your scouting reports for Keon Coleman and ton Higgin uh ton Higgins I really combined them right there Keon Coleman and T Higgins I vaguely remember you not being high on Higgins coming out of Clemson and was curious how they compare on your grade scale and how similar they are as Pro ects so Tom’s correct I didn’t love T Higgins coming out of Clemson and it wasn’t because I didn’t think he was a good Prospect I had him as a late one early too I I I liked him a lot as a prospect I didn’t like him for the bills that was that was my whole thing about t Higgins I didn’t think he was the right receiver for the Buffalo Bills and again this these conversations happened before the bills traded for Stefan digs and let me compare them and I’ll kind of get to them my main point here t t Higgins is 64 216 Keon Coleman is 63 and three quarters 213 pounds so very similar statures Higgins has got a little bit more uh arm length two inches actually 34 and an eighth on the arms for T Higgins and Keon Coleman has 32 and an eigh inch arms but still profile is similar players what it comes down to with both of them is that they’re just stylistically not my preference of wide receiver in particular with Josh Allen because the those aren’t the type of receivers that we’ve seen Josh Allen have a lot of success with where I thought Josh Allen really found success throwing the football to was guys that really accelerated as route Runners and separators Stefan Diggs Cole Beasley John Brown Emanuel Sanders those are the guys the profile of receiver route Runner separation guys guys that can get in and out of breaks I thought that presented the most attractive options for Josh Allen because I think Josh Allen is is more of a visual player than an anticipatory player and so I think that ability to establish yourself as open and present an avalable Target is what Josh Allen thrives throwing the football to and I don’t look at either T Higgins or Keon Coleman as good separators and T Hig T Higgins has been very very good in the NFL but it’s not because he’s a great separator last year T Higgins had 2.3 yards of separation per Target that’s 103d in the NFL in 2022 he was even lower I think T Higgins has a production that he does because he plays with Joe burrow what’s Joe burrow an anticipatory quarterback as mentally good as any quarterback that you’ll see and that combination of hey high level anticipation plus accuracy that leads to him being a great pair right burrow and Higgins a great pair and I’m not saying that Higgins couldn’t be productive for the bills not saying that Kean Coleman can’t be productive for the bills but when you look at the types of receivers that Josh Allen had success throwing the football to it hasn’t been stylistically those types of guys think about Gabe Davis I think Gabe Davis is more of an extreme example of T Higgins or Keon Coleman but there there was production but there was inefficiency as well and I think that’s that’s the world I don’t want to sign up for I want to sign up for the efficiency the consistency that you got when the Josh Allen throwing the ball to Diggs and Beasley and Sanders and brown and so that’s where it was really rooted it’s not that I don’t like Keon Coleman it’s not that I don’t like T Higgins it’s that I I think that separators is not only what works best with Josh Allen but it’s also my personal preference in terms of wide receivers so that’s where where that’s where that all aligns for me and I hope that that answer made sense for everyone listening all right we got more fun stuff to get to here on the other side of it including a fun roster building experiment that Papa T’s put me through Tyler bass and Ina got an early question about inactives so be sure to sck with me all right folks the next one here comes from Papa papa says this I took the top five player salaries of six NFL teams the bills Chiefs Bengals Ravens Eagles and ners and the average salary of those top five players per team is right at 100 million this is just under 40% of the salary cap in this scenario you are a fictitious general manager and you can select any five players from the NFL who are no longer on the rookie deals for one year using the aav of their current contract not their 2024 cap hit and the total cap hit has to come in around 40% of the cap which five players would you select I always enjoyed the team building conversations and I’m very curious to see which positions you prioritize and which players contracts stand out to you fun question Papa T and I I have an answer for you but the one thing that I will say is that I feel like this answer is somewhat reflective of my team building preferences but probably more reflective of the combination of my team building preferences and and contracts that really stand out to me because it’s it’s pretty tricky to to do this right it’s got to come in around 40% so I’m going to come in at 42% so I’m going to go a little bit higher but I’m close you set around I think within 2% is pretty reasonable so here’s my choices the first two were very easy like I these were guys I had to have quarterback Patrick Mahomes $45 million I’m taking that that’s that’s a Sprint to the podium I like Josh Allen I think Josh Allen’s the second best player in the league I think he’s the second best quarterback in the league but I’m pick picking Mahomes all right sorry you can yell at me all you want so Patrick Mahomes 45 million that’s my first choice my next choice was an easy one defensive end miles Garrett 25 million is his a a AV and um what is Nick boses like pushing mid-30 now I think this is one of the best value contracts in the league I think Miles Garrett is unbelievable he’s a game wrecker uh he changes the way you can play offense I think he’s unbelievable so him at 25 million was an easy Choice then I want to get self a wide receiver I think the the best value deal out there for a wide receiver is DJ Moore from the Bears at 20.6 million aavv I think he’s a true number one receiver I’m unbelievably impressed with his ability to be productive despite quarterback play whether that’s at Maryland right he was his last season at Maryland he was the only big 10 wide receiver to have a thousand yards and they had I think they played three or four quarterbacks I think their first two quarterbacks got injured like in the first couple games of the Season still had a thousand yards the only only big 10 receiver to do it then he goes to Carolina the quarterback stink there goes to the Bears the quarterback stink there and he’s just produces over and over every level of the field threat wins after the catch he’s a dude so DJ Moore at 20.6 million then I need to get myself a left tackle but I’m I don’t have much money left right because it’s got to come in a little over a 100 million and I’ve already got 45 to Mahomes 25 to Garrett and 20 to DJ Moore so I need to find some value here with a left tackle I went with Patrick marcari from the uh Ravens his aav is 7.1 million with how injured Ronnie Stanley has been for them in Baltimore this guy’s played a lot of left tackle for them and I think he was a Bargain Bin deal that gives me an answer at left tackle I wanted to have something there uh I thought that was a good value play and then I had to get me myself another dude for the defensive line uh and I didn’t have much to play with so I went with h Zack s Zack sealer from the Miami Dolphins interior defensive lineman his contract is 10.25 million AA and um I couldn’t find another defensive lineman that offers the same level of disruption for a dollar amount that would allow me to fit him in I I thought about Hassan reic at 15 million um but I felt like that was kind of pushing it a little bit too too much you said around 40% I’m at 42% if I put Assan reic in there I think that would get a little bit higher and so I thought you know it was the most attractive option to keep it within the parameters that were given to me but I think to to just kind of get it back to team building I got to have a quarterback I got to have dudes on the defensive line I got to have a stud left tackle and I need a playmaker I need a playmaker on offense uh probably a wide receiver so that’s how it comes in that’s a fun experiment you guys should do that as well uh work through it and uh leave me a comment on YouTube and let me know who you would pick uh under those parameters fun question Papa T and papa you let me who you picked you told me you did the project so shoot me a text and let me know Nigel Nigel says hi this is going to be in in tandem question from Nigel and buff Nigel says how tight are the Bills to Tyler bass I know that the bills made him one of the top paid kickers but if training camp shows more and more multiple 35 yard misses in practice come on brother and we need we needed to get a different kicker for for the season how big of a pain would it be in terms of financial ramifications and the buff says I have a question for the week should we be worried about Tyler bass given how last season went and the reports out of camp that he’s missing easy field goals so if the bills were to release Tyler bass keeping in mind this is year one of his fouryear $20 million extension if he’s released the bills would have zero salary cap relief this year or next and you’d have 4.3 million in dead cap this year 3.1 million in dead cap next year not good not good there’s no relief and you lose lose cap space the win here folks is that Tyler bass is the kicker that Brandon Bean is paying him to be that’s what has to happen here we know he’s capable of better right he’s been a better Kicker than he was down the stretch last year and of course what we’ve heard so far from camp but I mean even the first six games of the season I think he was perfect on extra points and field goals so we know he’s capable of being a lot better there’s a reason the bills gave him the contract that they did and we didn’t really question it at the time and here’s the big thing that you have to ask yourself with Tyler bass if you move on again you’re signing up for 4.3 million in dead cap this year 3.1 million in dead cap next year if you move on and you make that choice to eat that dead cap you have to be confident that you can actually upgrade the spot because you’re going to have a lot invested here you have to be able to actually upgrade the spot the one thing you don’t want to do is take a go go from a mediocre to bad kicker to a mediocre to bad kicker but oh by the way you’re just going to lose a bunch of cap space that’s silly so your win your best path here is for Tyler bass to be the player he’s supposed to be and I think you got to let it play out a little bit here you’ve kind of signed up for this we’ll see what happens but that’s what to me that’s what needs to happen Tyler bass needs to be a good kicker and I think you know 88 to to 92% is kind of the range I want him to be be clutch you know make the field goals in big moments that’s what you need him to be but last year for him to be around 82% two of five in the postseason misses that were not from distance you know it’s Gotta it’s got to get turned around there’s no question last one here comes from Chris and this builds off of the podcast I did yesterday which was my 53 man roster projection Chris says based on the 53 man roster projection you just made assuming that’s the final roster excuse me and everyone is 100% healthy for week one against Arizona who do you think the 48 active players will be for week one so who are my inactives that’s what he’s asking who are my week one inactives if if the Bills roster everyone that I said and everyone’s healthy I have five of them Cedric van pran Granger I’d still have eight active offensive linemen he’s a rookie um and I have Alec Anderson who can snap and so that would be my backup center Dwayne Carter another rookie I still have four defensive tackles so I feel comfortable with him being inactive Cole Bishop I don’t know how ready he’s going to be and uh I would still have Edwards W Hamlin and cam Lewis to play safety Adan Osio he’s a rookie I’d still have five linebackers dressed and then my last choice would be between dayquon hardy and Chase Claypool dayon Hardy if he was GNA be my punt returner then uh I would definitely have him active but if he’s just going to be a backup in the slot I would make him inactive um because because in that scenario I could just have Cam Lewis get me out of the game at slot Corner if Taran Johnson were to get injured um if he was not going to be my punt returner then I’d have Chase Claypool inactive and keep five receivers active on game day so there you go that’s that’s how I stack it up as of right now but obviously there’s never going to be that perfect scenario of hey you perfectly projected the 53 man roster and oh by the way everyone’s healthy but still a fun thought exercise all right folks that’s do for us here today on the podcast tomorrow got a guest lined up for you it’s going to be a fun conversation a different angle to look at the bills through so don’t miss it make sure that you’re subscribed would love it if you took a second to rate review and share the podcast have a great rest of your day go bills and I look forward to catching up with you again real soon

In case you haven’t heard, the Buffalo Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs and are taking a new approach at the wide receiver position. How will that decision impact the performance of Josh Allen? On today’s episode, Host Joe Marino offers insight on those dynamics in addition to a host of Herd Mentality items. The show is focused on the Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, Joe Brady, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Keon Coleman, Tee Higgins, Curtis Samuel, Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, Deshawn Williams, Dewayne Carter, Austin Johnson, Cole Bishop, Mike Edwards, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tyler Bass, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Chase Claypool, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid and more!

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