@@Toronto Blue Jays

Rosenthal: The last-place Blue Jays are an underperforming mess. Now what do they do?

  • June 27, 2024


I know, I know…Ken Rosenthal! He isn't wrong though. 'Buying time' isn't where we want this FO to be come trade deadline. He makes a more salient point later on that if they keep Shapiro and Atkins, 2026 will be a complete wash

Shapiro is signed through 2025, Atkins through ’26. The Rogers Communications ownership is notably detached from the team’s operations. But if this season ends badly, it will be difficult for Shapiro to keep claiming Atkins’ body of work is “undeniable.” And if the Jays are likely to dismiss Atkins in October, why would they let him oversee their deadline maneuverings in July?

Maybe because Shapiro and Atkins are so closely connected, and because Shapiro remains heavily involved in decision-making. But considering the disenchantment of the fanbase and the insufficient returns on investments, Shapiro, too, could be in jeopardy. Payroll is part of it. The fading George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal through 2026 looks increasingly problematic. But the Jays also raised ticket prices to help finance a $300 million renovation of Rogers Centre, and spent $100 million on a new player development complex in Dunedin, Fla.

Ah, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The first question for the Jays, if they indeed sell, will be whether they simply part with their potential free agents, most notably left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, reliever Yimi García and catcher Danny Jansen, and then try to win with the bulk of the current group in 2025.

The current group, mind you, does not warrant such an endorsement. A good number of Jays fans have seen enough. But Shapiro and Atkins could argue that they want to take their best shot in their final season with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette under club control.

A significant push during the offseason would be necessary. Guerrero and Bichette likely would leave after 2025 for nothing more than draft picks. But by not selling, the Jays could avoid attendance cratering — the average home crowd is down more than 4,000 this season, from 37,307 to 33,203. And Shapiro and Atkins could perhaps buy themselves more time.

21 comments

  2. I cannot take seriously anyone who thinks they’d deal Danny then try to compete in 25. Even if his bat stayed cold, he’s too valuable on the dish. I do wonder if Shapiro is willing to cut Atkins to save himself, though

  3. No one is saying what Ken or any other writer is saying is “wrong”. It’s just the same repetitive thing that everyone knows by now. Reading the entire article there is not a single piece of new information or differing opinion anywhere.

    However, it feels like like everyone wants Atkins or the Jays to just announce publicly they will be sellers but that won’t happen. You’ll know once trades start being made. The reason why they aren’t selling right now is not cause they are “buying for time” or “squeezing high attendance” numbers which is what Ken seems to be implying.

    It’s just not the ideal time to sell right now. It takes one look at the standings to see there is still a blending of which teams will be buyers or which teams will be sellers.

    Ideally most of the teams around .500 stay around .500 and then become buyers which increases the sellers market which is really small right now in CWS, LAA, OAK, COL & MIA and there aren’t too many attractive pieces on those teams.

  4. > Shapiro also said, “We need to get better. Ross needs to get better, but he’s done a good job and put us in a good position next year to be a very good team.”

    That comment aged like milk.

    >And if the Jays are likely to dismiss Atkins in October, why would they let him oversee their deadline maneuverings in July?

    This is the question, in my mind. His track record *isn’t* undeniable, and you can’t bring him back next year, so if he’s likely gone, I don’t want him making any important personnel decisions.

  5. Unless ownership is committed to offering Soto more money than any other franchise (which still doesn’t guarantee he signs) they should blow this team up and start over. The core of this team has shown to be good enough to sneak into the playoffs and get swept out which isn’t enough for the AL east.

  6. Remind me later if I end up being wrong but I’m convinced Atkins is going to survive all this somehow. They are looking for any narrative to hold on to keep him. First it was not admitting the team isn’t contending in May, then it was let’s just call everyone up and hope they mash so they can say “forget 2024, we have a bright future”. Soon it will we traded for x y z at the deadline and x y z are primed for big improvements in 2025.

    If somehow Atkins and Schneider survived that Twins series and the press conference disasters after, anything is possible.

  7. You can’t expect me to take Rosenthal seriously when he’s using Twitter talking points about the Moreno trade and the Springer deal as part of his in-depth analysis. He’s not making ANY point about the current state that hasn’t already been made 6500 times.

  8. Rosenthal mentioning Shapiro being heavily involved in decision making was interesting.

    (Rogers being not in baseball ops isn’t a surprise, they give them the budget and then don’t do much otherwise)

  10. Extend Vlad, Jansen, and Kikuchi. Sign Soto and Tyler O’Neill, trade Springer with Tiedemann and another prospect. Look for bullpen arms and 4A starters.

  11. I disagree. I think Atkins’ body of work is “undeniable” and it becomes more so with every passing day.

  17. Here’s what bothers me:

    Atkins is Shapiro’s guy. They’re friends, which we all know is a massive “no-no” in business, because you never want to fire your friends. He’s also Shapiro’s protege, and firing your protege is basically saying that you have failed as a mentor.

    Because of that, I have a growing suspicion that the only way Atkins goes is if Shapiro goes with him. And I’m prone to believing that Rogers is happy with Shapiro, because of the renos in Dunedin and the SkyDome (ridiculous outfield corners aside).

    I think there’s a good chance that nothing changes here, because I’m beginning to believe that Rogers put Shapiro (a veteran executive with a ton of experience and a good reputation in the MLB) in charge and just stepped away to count their money, only coming back into the picture when they’re needed (like with Ohtani) because they believe that their franchise is in good hands, and maybe they’re a bit hesitant to meddle after the Anthopoulos debacle.

    And I don’t think the bottom line has been affected yet, at least not enough to be a concern. So even though the team is struggling, Rogers will listen to Shapiro when he says that they have a plan.

    Buckle up folks: I hope I’m very, very wrong, but things could very much stay “status quo” for the foreseeable future.

  18. >But by not selling, the Jays could avoid attendance cratering — the average home crowd is down more than 4,000 this season, from 37,307 to 33,203. And Shapiro and Atkins could perhaps buy themselves more time.

    All you need to know. Rogers isn’t going to allow any type of rebuild that will lower attendance. They don’t care what the on field product is as long as there are buts in seats.

  19. This Jays season has been one long Christmas for Ken huh

    Can’t say I’m surprised he wanted to do his best Reese McGuire impression all over the pages of the New York Times

  20. Ah yes the Leafs model. If it doesn’t work wash rinse repeat and hope for the best in 2025.

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