Motivated by Brandon Thorn recently ranking the Pats' offensive line 31st heading into the season, I was curious how rookie QBs who were put into similar situations have fared in their careers.
I recorded PFF's preseason offensive line rankings for the teams of first-round rookie QBs from 2016-2023 (in the QB's rookie season). I then compared these offensive line ranks to the player's highest PFF grade in a season. I exclude QBs who started less than 6 games as a rookie (Richardson, Lance, Love, Mahomes, Lynch).
I plot the results below. The sample is obviously small, but it doesn't show evidence of a strong negative correlation.
There is evidence of a stronger negative correlation between QB PFF grade and rookie-year preseason PFF receiving corps ranking (p = .08).
