Projecting Buffalo Bills 2024 target distribution: Where will Josh Allen’s 308 vacated targets go?

Projecting Buffalo Bills 2024 target distribution: Where will Josh Allen’s 308 vacated targets go?

the Buffalo Bills let over 300 targets from last year’s passing game go in the off season who picks up the slack I’m projecting the bills 2024 Target distribution today on lock on [Music] bills you are locked on bills your daily Buffalo Bills podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day what’s up bills Mafia it’s Joe Marino author of go bills and Buffalo’s run also the co-host of the lockon NFL scouting podcast and I’m your host of locked on bills want to thank you for making lockon bills your first listen every day and a big welcome and shout out to our every dayers you know who you are those of you who never miss a single episode I appreciate you’all being here very very much I’d also like to invite you to subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts we’re part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase terms apply well folks welcome in you’ve heard me say time and time again this offseason that at some point I was going to put together a podcast where I project the Buffalo Bills taret Target distribution in 2024 well today is the day we’re going to do this and I’m going to do the best that I can with it so this should be fun so 308 of Josh Allen’s 545 targets from 2023 are no longer in the mix that’s 57% 57% of targets from last season are vacated and I’m very excited to try to figure out where those throws go in 2024 now that five 145 Targets number is not the amount of passing attempts Josh Allen had he had 579 passing attempts last year but the targets don’t include spikes batted throws throwaways they’re passes that were directly targeted for a specific player so what’s gone what what has left the door 160 targets for Stefan Diggs 81 to Gabe Davis 22 to Trent sherfield 22 to latavius Murray 21 to Deontay Hardy and two to Damen Harris that’s 300 and eight so I’m going to give you my best guess as of right now for where I think these passes are headed now some housekeeping here these projections do assume full health for all the players for 17 games there’s no other way to do it I can’t predict injuries so I’m not going to keep in mind that this is a thought exercise I’m not going to nail it all right but I am going to show my work and my goal whenever I try to project something is to make sure that my process is defendable and so am I going to get all of this right no but I hope that you will listen to this podcast and realize by the end of it you know what Joe’s got a good process maybe he’s right maybe he’s wrong but it’s a thought exercise that helps get our mind properly calibrated for the upcoming season and then this is my right now projection sometime during or late in Camp or maybe even after Camp I’ll do my full 2024 statistical projections for the Buffalo Bills offense and we’ll update things you know then as we kind of get more of a feel for the pecking order at wide receiver and I’ll get a chance to take in I think five training camp practices and that’ll give me a lot of insight as to what I think this offense is going to be so let’s do it let’s get all the housekeeping put it behind us let’s talk about these projections and the first thing you have to figure out is how many times Josh Allen is going to throw the football how many targets are going going to be available well if you go to 2023 and you saw nine games with Joe Brady as the offensive coronator in those nine games Josh Allen threw the ball 298 times that’s 3311 throws per game that pace over 17 games equals 563 passing attempts and so I’m going to use that as my projection keeping in mind that it could be a lot more than that I think when you look at the sample size that I’m considering the nine games with Joe Brady in 2023 the Dallas game skews that heavily I think you can look at the overall efficiency of the offense being better in 2024 and if that’s the case you have more passing attempts who knows how good the bills defense is going to be so could the bills be playing in more high-scoring games that are competitive that go down to the wire and all of a sudden Josh Allen’s throwing the ball a lot more are they playing from behind which leads to more throws there’s a lot of variables in place but I don’t think 563 is a bad starting point and and go look at Josh Allen’s passing attempts throughout the years you’ll see it’s it’s kind of in that range in 2023 Josh passed the ball 579 times 2022 567 2021 64 6 2020 572 so if you think 563 is low it’s not really it’s kind of in line with basically where he’s been again there’s a path for this to be higher so there’s my starting point 563 targets available for the bills weapons the first position group that I want to project is tight ends then we’re going to do wide receivers in segment two segment three will be running backs other and put a final tally on everything but I do want to start with tight ends for a couple of reasons number one I think the number one target getter in this offense is going to be Dalton concade so I want to establish him right away but then I think one of the big dominoes in sorting this whole thing out is Dawson Knox and what a realistic projection is for him as tight end two so let’s start with Dalton concade I am projecting 120 targets for Dalton concade and 2024 if you go to the last nine games of the season with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator Donan Kade received 5.6 targets per game I’m gonna bump that up by about one and a half per game assuming that he absorbs a fair amount of What’s Left Behind from Diggs and Davis keeping in mind you know dton conc got 90 targets last year as a rookie I don’t think it’s crazy to think he can hit 120 if you go back to 2023 across the NFL you had six tight ends receive over a 100 targets Evan Ingram came in at 140 T.J hackinson came in at4 David and joku came in at 120 Sam leaport 118 Travis Kelce 117 and Trey McBride with the Cardinals at 105 I think 120 is a really it’s a number that I feel pretty comfortable with so D King K leading the way 120 targets taking what he did last year bumping it up a little bit and then seeing what the norm is for highly targeted tight ends that gets us to 120 now for the Dawson Knox part of this conversation and I think the question you have to ask yourself is what is high volume for a tight endend two what’s normal here and so I went through last year’s Target distribution across the league and I I looked at the tight end twos that received the most targets and here’s what I found for Arizona Trey McBride 104 Zack hers 42 targets for the Falcons Kyle Pitts had 86 jnu Smith had 69 for the bills dcan Cade 90 Dawson Knox 35 and remember 35 where he missed several games with a broken wrist and tried to play through the broken wrist still got 35 targets Travis Kelce and Kansas City got 117 Noah gray 39 and then uh we’ll go to the Chargers Gerald Everett 70 targets Donald Parham 40 so I think you can look and say hey 40 to 50 targets feels right for a high volume tight end too so I’m coming in at 45 targets or Dawson Knox so this is a lot of volume going to tight ends 120 for concade 45 going to Dawson Kno so we have the passing attempts at 563 and we have the targets for the tight ends coming up next we’re talking wide receivers and how in the world that distribution is going to fall I have plenty of thoughts I’m getting to those next so be sure to stick with me folks the NFL schedule is here plenty of big games plenty of big games for the Buffalo Bills maybe you want to get to some of these games well if so you got to check out game time game time is the fast and easy way to purchase tickets for all the sports music comedy and Theater events near you I love the app the app is super easy to navigate they give you Flash Deals they give you a seat view so you know exactly what to expect when you get to the 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Primary Weapons in this pack passing game and so khil Shakir and again his production ramped up right he was really quiet the first five six weeks of the season and then he really cranked it up with Joe Brady K Shakir average just under four targets per game and that pace I think it was like 3.88 that pace is going to put him in the mid 60s in terms of total targets for 17 games I’m projecting more than that I’m projecting 90 targets for khil Shakir that’s 5.29 per game and what this comes down to is familiarity and Trust Josh Allen throws the football to players he trusts Kil Shakir is the only wide receiver on this team that’s ever caught a pass from Josh Allen in a game he’s the longest 10-yard wide receiver on the team I think he’s going to go to the ball he’s gonna go to Shakir with the ball and think about even in the playoffs as a rookie Josh Allen threw the ball to khil Shakir you saw him targeting Shakir against Pittsburgh and Kansas City those big moments in the playoffs like that’s a for sure thing the Chargers think about some of those late throws against the Chargers to help win that game the big throw it on the sideline against Miami to help win that game Josh Allen trusts khil Shakir and I think Shakir is gonna be a big part of this offense put me down for 90 targets next up is Curtis Samuel Curtis Samuel’s interesting here he’s new so everything about projecting him to this offense is challenging because there’s no proof of concept of what this should look like we know that the bills didn’t have a ton of cap space but they prioritize signing Curtis Samuel who of course has familiarity with Joe Brady Curtis Samuel’s been a guy that’s received a fair amount of targets over the years over his last four healthy Seasons he’s R ranged from 95 91 to 105 targets so over his last four healthy Seasons 91 to 105 targets 2020 with Joe Brady and Carolina he received 97 targets I think he comes in at about 80 targets so I’m going to project 80 targets for Curtis Samuel with the bills in 2024 and I think when you couple that with the amount of carries he’s going to get I think Kurtis Samuel is gonna get well over a hundred chances to touch the ball from scrimmage for the bills in 2024 I think the big piece of this is going to be how effective the bills are in the quick passing game to Curtis Samuel to produce yards after catch I think that’ll dictate a lot of the volume but they didn’t sign him and give him the contract that they did for him to not be a piece of you know major piece of what they’re doing so put me down for 80 targets for Curtis Samuel next up is Keon Coleman if you look at my notes right now I have Keon Coleman and then the next words are who knows who knows I think I think the range of outcomes is very wide for Keon Coleman as a rookie again my expectations for Keon Coleman is to eventually become the starting X receiver and a high volume piece of this offense that’s not what I’m talking about today I’m talking about 2024 targets and I think the the Reps for the X receiver spot are going to be competitive with Marquez Val des scantling and Ma Hollins and Chase Claypool in addition to Keon Coleman and maybe you say well well slot reps right he can play in the slot well those are going to be competitive reps too with K Shakir and Curtis Samuel and dton King Kade and remember Keon Coleman is Young he’s really young so this is there’s not a whole lot I can point to that’s going to substantiate the number that I’m coming up with but I have Keon Coleman down for 55 targets at this point in 2024 now I could go to training camp practice and see how they’re using him and what the Reps are like and and I can feel really different about that but as of right now I’m saying 55 and maybe you think that’s low and if if you’re in that ballpark you should take great joy in knowing that I underestimated Dal concade last year I had dton concade at 26 or excuse me at 65 targets which was off by 26 you got a lot more volume than I anticipated and Pro Football Focus projects Keon Coleman to have 62 catches so obviously a lot more than 55 targets Mike Clay of ESPN projects 96 targets for Keon Coleman and fantasy pros who does a great job with projections has Keon Coleman down for 62 catches as well so I’m on the low end here but I see the competition at both X and slot and I wonder how much of that is gobbled up by Keon Coleman but that’s the one that I’m I’m going to have to solidify my thoughts on at camp and then really he probably a guy that ramps up as the season moves along so like does he start off like very low in terms of targets per game and that ramps up and if so how quickly like there’s a lot to unpack there two more receivers I want to project here Marquez valis scantling coming up next so mvs had a uh has had a career that you know spend time with the Packers and the Chiefs he played with Aaron Rogers and and Patrick Mahomes and his career targets have ranged from a career low in 2023 with 42 up to a career-high 81 in 2022 his average across six seasons has been 62 targets per year I do see specializ to mvs and how he fits into this mix as a guy that primarily wins as a down thefield receiver and I don’t think there’s a whole lot more to unlock mvs is very is not like a do everything player think Gabe Davis but more explosive but same types of Route running limitations right and again he played with Aaron roders Patrick Mahomes and with with great play callers in both spots so my projection given my belief that he’s more of a specialized player for the bills I think 40 targets feels about right which is in line with what he got last year with the Kansas City Chiefs so 40 targets for mvs in 2024 the last receiver that I’m gonna project is ma Hollins we’ll see on Chase cpool like if I go to camp and I see it from Claypool and he’s getting starter reps and you can see that he’s a priority for what this offense wants to I’ll sort him into the mix and we’ll update this but for now I’m going to lean into ma Hollands and another tricky one to project uh you look at his career outside of 2022 with the Raiders when he got 94 targets he’s ranged between 22 to 30 targets per season in his other five years I think that’s the appropriate range for him in Buffalo I have him down for 25 targets think glance routes think utilization down the field is a big body that could stack vertical get on top of guys and make DB’s play through him and then he’s gonna block and play special teams I don’t think there’s a lot of volume but I think he can make a few plays throughout the course of the Season that’ll be pretty meaningful so 25 targets is what I have down for Matt Collins all right folks we’re going to talk running backs and how those targets are distributed the other bucket and then we’ll tie a ribbon and give you the final tally from top to bottom so be sure to stick with me all right folks welcome back let’s look at the running backs the other bucket and the final tally so Brandon Bean has been very intentional about trying to find some pass catching backs for Josh Allen whether it was the failed signing of JD mckisic trading for nahem Hines drafting James Cook drafting Ray Davis there’s been a lot of intentionality I think that there’s going to be an emphasis on throwing the ball to running backs so here’s how I have it shaking out we’ll start with James Cook James Cook had 54 targets last year and he actually averaged one more Target per game when Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator compared to Ken dorsy I think he holds the Brady Pace in 2024 of 3.8 per game so put me down for 65 targets to James Cook so a slight bump about 10 more targets versus last year and I think he’ll you know catch 50 of those put me down for 50 catches for for James Cook assuming that the drops problems go away so 65 targets to James Cook then I want to lump together Ty Johnson and Ray Davis because candidly I don’t have a great feel for which one’s going to command more volume but I think as a pair I can look at them and Come Away with a reasonable spot so if you look at latavius Murray and Tai Johnson last year the rb2 the rb3 under Joe Brady in those nine games that pair averaged 2.44 targets per game over 17 games that’s 41 targets I’m going to come in a little bit lower than that I have them combining for 33 targets I think it skews more towards Ray Davis but I’m not exactly sure how it spit how it splits out so I guess the interesting thing to look at here is I have 65 targets to James Cook 33 to to Johnson and Davis so that winds up being what is that 98 targets 98 oh right right at about 100 targets going to running backs so a decent amount of market share if you will going to running backs then there’s the other bucket this is the Quinton Morris bucket the Reggie Gilliam the random other receiver that catches like a pass Chase Claypool all the random targets I have that at 10 which was right pretty close to where it was last year when you look at Q Morris and Gilliam and was like Andy Isabella got like one target those types of players so here’s how it shakes out and we’ll see if I’m right or not but as of right now this is the best guess that I have again 563 attempts for Josh Allen 120 to Dalton Kade khil Shakir 90 Curtis Samuel 80 James Cook 65 Keon Coleman 55 Dawson Knox 45 mvs 40 ma Hollins 25 the Ty Johnson Ray Davis Duo 33 and then the other bucket is 10 would love to hear from you this is there’s a lot of different outcomes that are possible here there’s plenty of good reasons to see it differently and so I’d love to hear from you if you’re watching on YouTube leave a comment let me know how you see this shaking out let me know who you think I have too low who I have too high I would love to kind of just kind of get a pulse check for how other people see this in addition to myself so if you’re on YouTube leave a comment if you’re part of our subtext Community shoot me a text would love to get some feedback on this and just kind of compare where I have it to other people so there you have it the Buffalo Bills 2024 Target distribution as of right now so late June again I’m gonna go to training camp I’m gonna be there for five practices and that’ll give me a pretty good feel for how I think things will shake out and then we’ll update everything including very specific you know Josh Allen every stat passing attempts yards touchdowns interceptions all everything I do that every year so that’s coming up but consider this a little appetizer a little primer a little tone Setter if you will all right folks that’s going to do it for us here today on the podcast as always I kindly ask that you rate review share and subscribe have a great rest of your day go bills and I look forward to catching up with you again real soon

The Buffalo Bills said goodbye to over 300 over Josh Allen’s targets from 2023. Where are thos throws headed? On today’s episode, Host Joe Marino delivers his projection for the Bills target distribution in 2024. The show is focused on the Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, Joe Brady, Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Quintin Morris, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Reggie Gilliam, Quintin Morris, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and more!

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