The title of this post comes from this link:
- The Braves have (by far) the widest xSLG – SLG gap on barrels of any team in the Statcast era – in either direction. The closest team to us are the 2024 Royals. You may notice that the top 3 negative gaps (and 6 of the top 11) are from this season, suggesting that we are in a historical dead ball season, but we destroy the competition even this season.
You can click to sort by other columns – you’ll find we have the widest gap ever in barrels for xBA – BA and xwOBA – wOBA as well. And most stats are not even close.
The Braves this season are 5th in MLB in barrels and in barrel %. They are 6th in xBA on barrels, 11th in xSLG, and 11th in xwOBA.
Despite this, they rank:
30th in actual BA (by .020 over the 29th team)
30th in actual SLG (by .106! over the 29th team)
30th in actual wOBA (by .027)
30th (by a mile) in xBA – BA, xSLG – SLG, and xwOBA – wOBA.
only 10th in barreled hits. We have the same number of hits as the Angels, who have 37 fewer barrels than we do.
only 15th in HRs off barrels. The Guardians have 1 fewer barreled HR than we do despite 56 fewer barrels than we have on the season. The Guardians xSLG is about .150 less than ours.
In other words, the Braves have been almost incomprehensibly, unfathomably, and historically unlucky.
6 comments
Forgot to mention that we are already [71st in the Statcast era in barreled outs](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=field%5C.%5C.out%7Cstrikeout%7Cstrikeout%5C.%5C.double%5C.%5C.play%7Cdouble%5C.%5C.play%7Cgrounded%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.double%5C.%5C.play%7Cfielders%5C.%5C.choice%7Cfielders%5C.%5C.choice%5C.%5C.out%7Cforce%5C.%5C.out%7Csac%5C.%5C.bunt%7Csac%5C.%5C.bunt%5C.%5C.double%5C.%5C.play%7Csac%5C.%5C.fly%7Csac%5C.%5C.fly%5C.%5C.double%5C.%5C.play%7Ctriple%5C.%5C.play%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C2019%7C2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C2014%7C2013%7C2012%7C2011%7C2010%7C2009%7C2008%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=6%7C&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=team-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_hrs=on&chk_stats_ba=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xbadiff=on&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_xslgdiff=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_wobadiff=on#results) and on pace to destroy the all-time record, set last year by… us (lol).
This is despite the 3rd highest xBA in MLB this year on barreled outs!
The bad luck streak will break at some point. I think bad luck probably got in their heads and hasn’t helped matters at all. It has to be discouraging to see your best hits just consistently fail.
Somebody decided to give us dead balls after we hit HRs too easily last year. Contact is the same (or better!) yet the results are wildly different. I mean, yeah, “historically unlucky”.
Tin foil hat is now on for all those fuckin wall scrapers caught on the warning track.
It felt like a bad dream watching Austin smash a ball to the gap at 106 MPH only for it to get held up in the wind and caught, and then the very next inning for Marcell to sting one out to right for an out. The xBA’s of those two hits were .830 and .740, respectively. Just a microcosm of what feels like has been happening all year long.
Doesn’t really matter anymore. Just get into the expanded playoffs where the illegitimate extra innings bullshit goes away and real game results can be had and we’ll see what’s up.