This Is The Atlanta Falcons’ Year: Film Breakdown

This Is The Atlanta Falcons’ Year: Film Breakdown

[Music] I think this is the year that the Falcons finally win the NFC South for the first time since 2016 I’ve spent the last week rewatching the 2023 Atlanta Falcons which is how you know I’m doing great and in this video we’re going to break down every part of the Falcons roster and how they compare to the rest of the league I have them ranked as the 16th best team in the NFL first in the NFC South and throughout the video we’re going to be looking at these roster rating Graphics what I’ve done is I’ve given every player in the NFL well a rating from 655 to 99 I’ve got the Falcons offense up on the screen right now these ratings are scaled so that 75 is an average starter 99 is prime Aaron Donald Prime Tom Brady and a 65 is a true udfa practice squad type of player or someone that just doesn’t have any tape so there’s nothing for me to evaluate and I’ll put up a breakdown for the rating scale of what each range means and what percentage of NFL players fall into that range and then all of those ratings are combined into positional ratings unit ratings and then overall team ratings and the positions are weighted by this table so for example wide receiver makes up 14% of the offense rating and that breaks down to 65% for wide receiver 1 20% for wide receiver 2 and 10 and 5% for wide receiver 3 and four so I have the Falcons ranked 16th in the NFL and after finishing with seven wins in five of the last six seasons I think this is the year they finally break through to become true play playoff contenders briefly looking at their stats from last year the Falcons were a League average offense by most metrics but as you can see with the PFF passing grade the quarterback play really held them back they were alternating between Desmond Ritter and Taylor hinei and sometimes Hani would be okay for like the first couple drives after they benched Desmond Ritter but overall it was the worst quarterback room in the NFL it wasn’t a stacked offensive roster but certainly good enough to be a playoff team with a League average quarterback and they just didn’t have that and then defensively they were about as good as you could be with a terrible pass rush they ranked eighth in yards per play fifth in success rate third and third down conversion rate fourth in red zone conversion rate obviously Raheem Morris has a proven track record as a defensive coordinator so it’s not necessarily a downgrade but I did think Ryan neelen did a great job to really stabilize this side of the ball and outside of the glaring weakness that is pass rushing it’s actually a pretty solid defensive roster they ranked 30th in pressure actually 19th in sack rate they did a pretty solid job of manufacturing sacks with stunts and twists and then the run defense was outstanding lowest EPA per play in the NFL second in stuff percentage that’s without Grady Jarrett for most of the season I expect that to continue for the Falcons this year they should be one of the better run defenses in the NFL so getting into the rosters starting with the offense I have them ranked as the 14th best offense in the NFL and I have them with a 78 for their offensive coordinator rating which which ranks tied for 20th in the NFL but I could easily see it ending up being a lot higher than that I think Zack Robinson was an outstanding higher and has a bright future it’s just really difficult to rate firsttime coaches and firsttime play callers we’ve seen so many of these hires that look great on paper just not work out and it’s obviously really tough to separate what’s Zach Robinson what’s Shawn McVey so there’s a lot of these rookie coaches that I have rated a little bit lower than I actually think they’re going to perform but with how much uncertainty is and just in general how tough it is to evaluate coaches I have to be a little bit conservative in that area if we give Zack Robinson an 84 which is what I have for Todd monin who’s a second-year offensive coordinator for Baltimore that shoots their offensive ranking up to ninth overall so I think if the Robinson higher hits this could absolutely be a top 10 offense I have this as the 13th best quarterback room in the NFL I think they upgraded with two players that would have been the best quarterback on their roster last year if you go back to any analysis of the Falcons offense from last summer it almost became annoying how often everybody had to couch every single statement with if Desmond Ritter ends up being good but the reason we all had to be so repetitive is because despite how good the rest of the offensive roster was a bottom three quarterback can absolutely tank that and it doesn’t matter how good the skill positions how good the offensive line is and Desmond Ritter showed up year two and the worst case scenario was immediately realized he was inaccurate turned the ball over took took a bunch of sacks fumbled a lot really struggled to push the ball down the field consistently it’s hard to think of a more impactful upgrade around the entire NFL than going from Desmond Ritter to Kirk Cousins Kirk is accurate he’s a great decision maker decent arm strength he has an outstanding feel for targeting Windows against Zone coverage over the middle of the field he can throw with velocity but he can also layer throws into those Tight Windows and throw the change of pace ball this play against San Francisco just sticks out of my mind the way he can layer this over Dre greenlaw’s hand before he got injured he was having one of the better seasons of his career out of nine Seasons as a full-time starter he was on Pace for his second highest completion rate third highest PFF grade lowest turnover worthy play rate highest adjusted completion rate third highest passer rating and he also led the NFL with an 8.5% drop rate so a lot of the box score stats are kind of underselling what he was doing last year the question with kurk cousins is the same one that it’s always been can he Elevate his surrounding core or can he win in the playoffs I’m not big into analyzing whether or not quarterbacks are clutch I think ESPN’s got you covered there A lot of times in my opinion most of that analysis is just reaching at really small sample sizes and in the playoffs you are facing better teams so it’s just more difficult to win there than it is in the regular season I think there is somewhat of a lack of creativity out of structure with Kurt Cousins he doesn’t give you very much with his legs and even though he is really tough to stand in the pocket and take hits he’s not great at avoid avoiding sacks and escaping pressure but as a Falcons fan I feel like if you’re coming out of the 2024 season and the main thing you’re upset about is you know Kirk couldn’t get you over the hump and you lost in the NFC championship game that alone is a win and then they also upgraded at quarterback two with Michael pennick Jr who they took eighth overall I still can’t endorse the pick I mean looking at this roster I can’t tell you how much a player like Roma dun would tie this offense together but if Kirk Cousins goes down with an injury I think Michael pennick is a better player than Desmond Ritter or Taylor hinek and they have one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL moving on to running back I have this as the third best running back room and that’s led by bejon Robinson who was pretty much as advertised as a rookie I think he already has arguably the best jump cut in the NFL his ability to make Defenders miss an open space is Elite for every player there’s one or two plays that like stick out of my mind whenever I think about them for beon it’s the swing pass against Carolina where he catches the ball makes the first Defender Miss and then splits the next two tacklers into the end zone and then that toss play against the Packers where he Stacks three jump Cuts back to back to back breaks three Defenders ankles but then there’s also the touchdown against Houston where he catches the shovel pass with one hand shakes the safety in the open field into the end zone you see on a couple of his longer receiving touchdowns from both of the Saints games his ability to outrun linebackers burn Pursuit angles at his size he just has special lateral change of Direction suddenness in the open field creativity to avoid tackles his vision I would say is a B+ for the most part he’s hitting the right Gap there were a couple Duo runs where I think he left some yards on the field but overall pretty solid in that area the main thing he just has to improve is the fumbles he had four fumbles in 2023 ball security is really the one area where I felt like you couldn’t say his rookie season was a resounding success and if there’s anything we got wrong about the 2023 running back class it’s that jir Gibbs was probably a little bit closer to Robinson at least than I thought but that has more to do with jir than it does to do with beon and then Tyler alir is a really solid rb2 doesn’t quite have the playmaking ability to create when the blocking isn’t as good but if you block up an outside Zone run for five yards he’ll get five yards I definitely want to see Robinson featured more as the lead Ball Carrier this year although I didn’t have as big of an issue with the carry split last year as some fantasy football people did I wouldn’t personally be in the business of drafting running backs in the top 10 but if I did I definitely wouldn’t just run them into the ground with 300 carries in their rookie season so I definitely understand the thought process there receiver is the biggest weakness on the Falcons roster I have them 22nd in the NFL I am a huge Drake London fan and despite underwhelming production in his first two years I feel very confident about him as a quality wide receiver one I think he’s established himself as one of the elite contested catch receivers in the NFL at 6’5 he can box out corners High Point the ball secure the catch through contact he has the dominant physical profile that helps him in that area but he also has really good ball tracking and focus at the catch point but this is not Hakeem Butler it’s not just a tall dude with good hands Drake London has rare change of Direction fluidity and Route running ability at his size he separates out of his breaks consistently especially in the short to intermediate range and I’ve said this before but I view the highend comp for Drake London is like a taller Michael Thomas you see this play against the bucks he’s running an in-breaking route but he’s got the corner Zion McCullum with his hips pointed to the sideline so all he has to do is just eat up this cushion stem his route to the outside hip for as long as possible and then at the top of the route he plants the outside Foot clean transition into his break and he crosses the defender’s face this play against Tennessee he’s selling this inside release seam route quick break out to the sideline he’s open out of his break but hinei can’t get him the ball he’s one of the rare players that has the foot quickness and the play strength to be really effective against press coverage good job here on this quick slant against Washington even though St juice is able to land the two-hand punch it just bounces right off of him and you see that combo of quickness and play strength play out with his downfield routes he’s completely unbothered by grabby man coverage down the field and he does a really good job with his hands to extend separation out of his break this play against Carlton Davis he separates on the Deep out using the push by technique he releases inside once he gets about four to five yards into the stem Carlson Davis throws up his hand to establish contact but then London swipes it down breaks outside in one continuous motion if he broke outside without using his hands Carlton Davis would have a point of contact to slow down Drake London’s release but also help him get his hips turned to the sideline by releasing contact Davis doesn’t have anything to grab on to he just has to try to mirror him at full speed down the field same thing here against JC horn it’s outside leverage so he’s basically forcing the inside release 5 to six yards into the stem horn has his hips turn in the opposite direction of Drake London’s break he uses the push by technique clean change of Direction and he’s wide open so you’ve got a historically big receiver with great hands excellent change of Direction skills and Route running technique his one limitation is that he just isn’t very fast so he’s not going to really outrun Corners down the field if you want to get him the ball deep down the sideline it’s most likely going to be a contest Target unless he’s able to separate with a stop and go or some other kind of double move but I think Drake London’s just going to eat on those 15 to 20 yard digs and outs from Kurt Cousins he finally has a good quarterback throwing him the football once he kind of firmly plants his flag as a wide receiver one then you can start to have the debate about is he a top 10 guy is he more top 15 to 20 I think the lack of a true vertical element could limit him from being a top five to seven receiver but you can absolutely win with Drake London is your wide receiver one but their other receivers are where I start to get more concerned even with Drake London I still think it’s a below average receiver room but if he gets injured I think this passing game could get pretty scary they traded Desmond Ritter to the Cardinals for Rond Del Moore addition by subtraction if you ask me and Rond Del Moore is like a deep threat Gadget type of receiver never really been able to find a consistent role in the NFL I went through most of his 2023 tape and he had a few really nice plays uh he got a touchdown on Derek Stingley here on this deep post he ran this wheel route against the Steelers outruns Patrick Peterson and then makes a really nice contested catch in the end zone and then this is an incredible comeback Stop Route against cam Taylor Brit you can see he’s got the speed he’s got the start stop ability change of Direction they gave him a good amount of screen targets he also had 178 rushing yards which was the second most of any receivers second to Debo Samuel so he can be effective in that Gadget role and then maybe give you a couple big plays down the field each year but even though he has some of the natural physical traits where you think he could develop into a good route Runner he doesn’t have the precise footwork to be a consistent separator he’s also lacking the play strength to deal with physical man coverage and press coverage is kind of a non-starter and then he had an 11% drop rate career 35% contested catch rate he hasn’t really been a player that you can trust to convert on The Limited opportunities that he gets and at 57 180 he’s not really going to win over the top of people on contested targets they also signed Darnell money from Chicago who’s steadily gotten less and less productive since his mini breakout year in 2021 where he did have over a, yards last year he had 31 receptions 414 yards one touchdown he did have a 14% drop rate and his previous career high was 4.7% so that could be an area that you see some positive regression for Darnell moneyy he was not reliable catching the football last year and that extended to contested catch situations as well where he was two of 11 and you know he’s an undersized player 173 lbs his career contested catch rate is 29.4% he has the speed to win vertically but he’s got to be wide open because he’s not really fighting through contact I think there were some things working against Darnell Mooney last year Justin Fields probably a step ahead of Desmond Ritter but not great quarterback play he had a lot of uncatchable targets there’s defitely some production that was left on the field there were a lot of catchable but inaccurate targets or plays where he was initially wide open but Justin Fields didn’t see him quickly enough and so the defender had time to get back into the picture but on those plays you also see his lack of physicality at the catch point doesn’t really box Defenders out and work back to the football with better quarterback play he’s probably more than a 414 yards and one touchdown caliber receiver but he’s not good enough against press coverage to be be a consistent deep threat he has some wiggle and change of Direction ability but not a refined consistent route Runner I really see Darnell money and Rond Del Moore as ideally A team’s wide receiver four but they’re going to be forced into a wide receiver 2 and three roll they added Ray Ray McLoud from the 49ers who’s been a career wide receiver four or five he is a good returner but not going to be more than a complimentary piece in the passing game similar story with cadero hjj never Eclipse to 150 yards in his career I think hodj McLoud and the rookie Casey Washington will probably be battling for the last two receiver spots and if they’re fully healthy this is a passable receiver room but like I said if Drake Lennon gets injured I think this passing game is in major trouble but they do get a boost from the tight end position I have them with the 12th best tight end room in the NFL most of that is led by Kyle pits he only had 667 yards three touchdowns last year and on tape he looked like kind of a shell of his former self and I feel like this was pretty evident based on the tape but it was confirmed after the season that he was not fully healthy he was coming off of an MCL and PCL surgery and just wasn’t as Dynamic of a route Runner certainly not as much of a vertical threat as he looked like early in his career and despite recovering from the injury he still had some incredible plays on his tape that not a lot of tight ends in the NFL can make right here he runs an out and up as he’s getting into this outbreak he’s got Scott Miller accelerating behind him on the Deep post which occupies Carlton Davis’s coverage and Davis isn’t able to change assignments quickly enough pits makes the catch and then outruns him to the end zone incredible contested catch here against the Panthers really difficult adjustment against double coverage this play against Washington he beats the Press coverage high points the ball in the back of the end zone and then an example here from the same game of how you just can’t really put a linebacker on him shakes jamond Davis at the top of the route gets some yards after the catch he also had his share of overthrown deep targets where he was wide open which he’s very much used to at this point in his career and a lot of his production last year was on Corner routes and deep outs as kind of the intermediate option on like a saale concept against Zone coverage he actually had the second most yards of any receiver or tight end on Corner routes last season compared to some other things there isn’t necessarily a ton of skill involved in running these routes although sometimes you know you do have to read the coverage read The Leverage of the defender but even at 60% or whatever you want to say he was at from a health perspective he was still one of the best route running tight ends he’s still a player that you have to treat as a receiver from a Personnel standpoint you can just never match him up with a tight end and even against slot Corners he was still a solid separator but because the Falcons didn’t really have other options last year they pretty much had to treat Kyle pittz as their second outside receiver and when he was lined up on the outside which was about 26% of his snaps he was nowhere near as effective this plot has has yards per route run lined up in the slot versus lined up on the outside and out of receivers and tight ends that had at least 100 routes in both Kyle Pitts had one of the biggest splits in Effectiveness the top left corner of the plot is players who were efficient in the slot but not efficient on the outside when he got matched up with an outside corner he just didn’t have the speed or the quickness out of breakes to separate with any kind of Route really thinking back to that play from his rookie season where he beat I think it was xaven Howard on like go route down the sideline it’s just a completely different caliber of athlete based on his injury situation last year so that was a very inefficient aspect of the Falcons offense last year and hopefully he can return to Prior form because the Falcons didn’t really upgrade at wide receiver 2 so he’s still going to be forced into that rle some they also brought in Charlie Warner from the 49ers actually a really good run blocker but 11 career receptions probably not going to give you a whole lot in the passing game and John Fitzpatrick was a sixth round pick in 2022 only had one reception in his rookie season so maybe he can carve out some kind of role and final offensive position group is the offensive line which I have ranked eighth in the NFL they’re definitely better in the Run game than they are in pass protection but still I think a clear top 10 unit and they don’t really have a true weak Link at any of the five spots going left to right Jake Matthews has been one of the most consistent reliable starters over the last decade PFF grades aren’t everything but he’s had nine consecutive Seasons with a PFF pass blocking grade above 77 you could actually make the argument that he’s the worst run blocker out of the starting five not that he’s bad he just doesn’t generate many positive plays but he’s a reliable pass blocker just a consistent B+ starter that you don’t have to worry about they took Matthew berson in the second round last year he had kind of a standard expected rookie season for an offensive lineman I thought he showed a ton of flashes in the Run game this reach block on the front side of wide Zone from the Packers game I think is one of the best run blocks from anyone last year the Colts game he had a couple really nice blocks on the second level connecting to linebackers and putting them on the ground he got a pancake on Derek Brown which does have an asterisk because he tripped on another player but still a really nice block and then he had a few great reach blocks in the first Saints matchup from week 12 you definitely want to see some improvement in pass Pro I thought the main area he struggled as a rookie was dealing with power which is pretty standard for rookie offensive lineman there were a lot of plays where he was just late with his punch let a bull rush get into his frame and then he doesn’t have that natural play strength yet to set a firm anchor when he doesn’t have his hands positioned Aiden Hutchinson beats him here with the bull rush gets into his frame walks him back disengages and gets the strip sack on Desmond Ritter this play Nathan Shepard uses a fake cross chop into a bull rush gets some displacement into the pocket for the sack right here he’s just late to react to Kenny Clark’s bull rush he walks him back into the pocket hits Desmond Ritter and he ends up throwing an interception the Jets game was also a pretty tough outing he had a few losses to Quinn and Williams and there were some times he had problems with crossface moves and sliding his feet in pass Pro but overall I think the biggest issue was dealing with power there were some good flashes I like some of the stuff he did with his hand usage this is a great rep against Aiden Hutchinson initially setting outside to the three Tech when Hutchinson tries to cross his face through the a gap great job of cutting off that inside counter with his right hand this play you see DeForest Buckner getting into his cross chop as he’s swinging his arms he exposes his frame so berson comes in with a quick two-hand punch and stalls all of his momentum so he’s got to get stronger and time up his hands better but I do expect him to be at least a League average guard at Center they’ve got Drew Dalman who was a fourth round pick in 2021 I didn’t do individual run blocking and pass blocking ratings but if I did Drew Dalman would probably have one of the biggest splits of any NFL offensive lineman he’s developed into a borderline Elite run blocker one of the best reach blocking Zone blocking centers in the NFL he’s undersized which gives him some issues in pass Pro but his ability to get his hips turned around seal off Defenders to the backside is as good as it gets in the NFL I think he’s definitely the weak link from a pass protection standpoint but in the Run game he’s a true weapon for the Falcons offense and the pass Pro I think is more below average than terrible he’s not like a liability out there I have Chris lindström is the best guard in the NFL one of only three guards with above a 90 rating along with Joe tuny and Quinton Nelson in 2022 he was a historically good run blocker I think it’s up there with Trent Williams 2021 season as one of the two best run blocking Seasons that I’ve ever watched for an offensive lineman last year he took a slight step back to being just a great to Elite run Blocker still put out dominant tape every week moving people off the line of scrimmage eliminating linebackers at the second level he’s probably the most explosive guard out of his stance in the NFL he can get from the line of scrimmage to 5 yards down the field in the blink of an eye he’s the best cut Blocker in the NFL I think by a clear margin he’s a great reach blocker perfect scheme fit if they continue to run a lot of outside Zone but he can also get movement off the line of scrimmage on Duo and GAP scheme runs but there were a few more missed assignments in the Run game last year some whiffs and blown blocks I think it’s hard to watch the Falcons offense and come away thinking that Chris lindström is a problem for them in the Run game but holding him to the standard of what we know he’s capable of it was a slight down year he’s another player that’s a better run blocker than he is a pass blocker but still one of the best pass blocking guards in the NFL because he doesn’t have Elite size and power he makes up for that by taking the fight to the pass rusher he’s got a really quick aggressive two-hand punch he has good slide quickness and Recovery skills but he does get overwhelmed by some of the better power rushers his weak week one matchup with Derek Brown was I think the single one-on-one matchup that he definitively lost last year he also had a couple bad reps against Jeffrey Simmons in week eight but overall I think he’s the best guard in the NFL two consecutive second Team all Pros I think it should have been two consecutive First Team all pros and I actually have him rated as the best player on the Falcons roster and Caleb McGary at right tackle another player that’s really good in the Run game but he’s steadily improved his pass blocking I think every season of his career like Chris lindström he’s at his best blocking outside Zone but he can also generate power in the Gap scheme Run game you look at Zack Robinson coming over from La back in 2016 2017 they were a very heavy outside Zone scheme but over the years they’ve transitioned into one of the heaviest Duo teams in the NFL I definitely think it would be a mistake to abandon outside Zone based on the Personnel that they have but if they do transition into more of a gap heavy scheme I think they’ve got the players to execute that and when you look at the starting five the Falcons are one of five NFL teams that don’t have a player with below a 75 rating as for the depth they’ve got storm Norton as a backup right tackle he’s pretty good for a sixth offensive lineman um you know I’m going through all the tape and I’m saving Clips adding them to folders there were a handful of storm Norton pancakes that I accidentally added to the Caleb McGary folder because they were pretty indistinguishable watching them play but like you watch this rep against the Jets he just gets melted by Bryce Huff speed to power he’s not really a starting caliber pass protector but he can fill in for a couple games and won’t be a major problem Ryan nule was a udfa in 2021 he filled in for Drew Dalman a couple games and I thought was pretty solid for a backup he had a really nice reach block on this cracked toss play against Chicago Tyler Vel another udfa had one start against Tampa Bay in week 14 didn’t allow a pressure he was one of my lowest graded players in the 2022 class out of like 320 players that I evaluated but he could potentially be some solid depth and then guys like Kyle Hinton jovon Gwyn Andrew stuber will be competing for the last roster spots so 14th best offense like I said I’m kind of given the low-end for offensive coordinator this could easily be anywhere from you know 14th to eighth best offense in the NFL and then I’ve got them with the 20th best defense in the NFL I am giving Raheem Morris credit here for what he’s shown over the last few years and across the board it’s an extremely solid unit outside of edge rusher which I have is the worst Edge rusher room in the NFL something about the NFC South and an inability to build a good group of edge rushers four of the six lowest rated teams at Edge rusher are in the NFC South and it’s really the one aspect of this defensive roster that I think is going to hold this team back I have their best Edge rusher as Arnold eetti a player that I really liked coming out of Penn State he definitely showed flashes in year 2 but has not put it all together to become a consistent pass rusher at the NFL level his best rep of the season was probably this double swipe against New Orleans really good job selling the speed to power once he draws out the punch he defeats the outside hand bends around the corner gets the sack on Derek Carr but this did come against Landon Young Who was a sixth round pick in 2021 and a career backup a nice rep here against Andrew Wy Works him back into the pocket with speed to power disengages counters inside gets a Pursuit sack he had this sack against the Jets where outside of the soft chip from the tight end he was pretty much unblocked to the quarterback this play against Minnesota he’s dropping back into coverage quarterback spy once dos breaks the pocket he closes in forces the fumble Lorenzo Carter picks it up and brings it back to the one and then he had this sack against Tennessee where he’s unblocked off the edge will Levis just kind of surrenders on third down so he did technically step up his production last year from a sack standpoint going from three in his first year to seven in 2023 but I don’t really think the sack increase was indicative of him taking this huge step as a pass rusher when you look at the quality of the plays I still have a lot of Hope for Arnold eetti I think he has the highest upside of any of their Edge rushers but I still view him as an unproven player Lorenzo Carter is an extremely underwhelming pass rusher but a pretty solid run Defender I could just copy and paste that analysis for most of Atlanta’s front four Defenders he sets a firm Edge he’s a solid block shedder does his job in the Run game he’s very athletic so you can scheme him up some production on stunts and twists but doesn’t really have much of a move set six years in the NFL he just hasn’t developed a pass rushing skill set that you can win with consistently I like this ghost move against mikai beckon to win around the corner don’t think this was registered as a sack but a hit that forced an incompletion this play against Tristan werfs uh comes in late fighting through the chip help speed to power opens up the inside and sacks Baker Mayfield He’s athletic enough to where he could find his way to you know six or seven sacks if he gets some stunts and some unblocked Pursuit sacks but I’m not really expecting a whole lot from him as a pass rusher they took brillan Tri in the third round um unfortunately can’t show College film but I will put up the scouting reports for all of the drafted players he led college football in pressures last season he’s a high motor player decent bull rush and speed to power I just don’t think he has the athletic traits or the overall move set for that to translate cleanly to the NFL hopefully he exceeds my expectations and becomes a productive player even if that happens I still think it will be as a second or third Edge rusher when you look around the NFL there just aren’t very many number one pass rushers with his athletic profile and then the last two guys I want to talk about are more hybrid players that I could have easily included in the defensive line section Zack Harrison is a hybrid Edge defensive end sometimes they play him at three Tech they took him in the third round last year he has some of the longest arms in the NFL and Falcons fans can probably tell me in the comments but just based on the tape it looks like he added some weight last year he was immediately a really good run Defender his length allows him to establish separation from blocks so easily he’s got the play strength to Anchor at the point of attack and he can shed disengage quickly and make plays in the back field I don’t know if the plan is to transition him fully to an interior player but as a hybrid defensive end I think he has Elite potential in run support as a pass rusher he was very ineffective in his a year 13 pressures three sacks on 164 pass rushing snaps I watched all these games chronologically and like the first 13 or 14 weeks I mean there weren’t even Signs of Life from Zach Harrison as a pass rusher he doesn’t really have a go-to way of winning with his hands and he’s an 18-wheeler trying to turn the corner but in week 16 against the Colts he actually had some wins with his bull rush the problem is they came against Blake Freeland another rookie who was one of the weakest offensive linemen in the NFL last steer this play he’s able to get into his frame launch him back into the pocket trips up Garner muu and closes in for the sack right here he does a good job of forklifting the hands lifting him up by the wrists so he can’t get a firm point of contact and walking him back into the pocket and then he did have a late win around the corner against Bernard Raymond who’s a really good left tackle he got a quarterback hit against another rookie tackle Carter Warren for the Jets good job beating the outside hand with the double swipe I kind of view this more as bad tackle play there is some potential as a power rusher but I think he’s a ways away from reaching it and even if he does reach his potential like I don’t think Zach Harrison’s going to solve the Falcons Edge rusher issue and Brandon Doris arguably closer to a defensive lineman than he is an edge rusher he was kind of a tough evaluation because he’s one of those players where you got to figure out if he’s versatile or if he just doesn’t have a positional fit at his playing size in college he’s not big or strong enough to play three technique and anchor against double teams but he doesn’t have the athleticism or explosiveness to really threaten offensive tackles around the edge he is a very skilled pass rusher he’s smooth changing directions quick with his hands if he can add weight and maintain that athleticism I think he does have a lot of upside as a pass rushing three Tech but anytime you’re talking about transforming someone’s body that kind of adds a lot of uncertainty that’s going to affect my draft grade for them at least so given the draft Capital that they spent I think they made Solid moves to upgrade this position but it still is the worst in the NFL to me the defensive line is a lot better but Grady Jarrett’s a bit of an uncertainty coming off the ACL Terror that he suffered in week eight over the last few years he’s taken kind of a step back from Prime Grady Jarrett still a solid productive starting caliber player but just not as consistently productive as a pass rusher especially I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that he’s going to come back to full strength off the ACL tear but that is a question mark for sure they signed David onata from New Orleans last year and I thought he had an outstanding season one of the best seasons from David onata that I’ve seen I think his block shedding ability in the Run game is Elite I mean this play against the Jets he just ragd dolls the rookie Center Joe titman he has such a firm two-hand punch on initial contact really raises the blocker’s pad level establishes early control of the interaction he has the lower body strength to hold the point of attack and the upper body strength to manipulate the block in whichever direction he needs to and watching him lock Peak shed it’s just teach tape after teach tape but heading into year n he still is an effective pass rusher not dominant but you know 35 to 40 pressures five to six sacks a year I think is what you can expect from David onata this play against Tampa Bay you see the bull rush into the arm over slams Baker Mayfield into the ground nice chop rip here against Jonah Jackson to attack the outside hand this play against the Jets he uses a double swipe to defeat the outside hand and bends around the corner hits the quarterback so I would say ideally he’s your third best pass rusher maybe second you could get away with depending on what Grady Jarrett looks like I think he might be the Falcon’s best pass rusher this year which is not ideal but very solid player going off of my rating scale you know the definition of a good starter they drafted ruk ororo with the 35th pick definitely too rich for me based on my grade but not a terrible reach especially considering how in demand defensive tackles were this year he has I think a lot of upside you see flashes of his ability as a pass rusher he’s a very technically sound and a assignment secure run Defender and he looks like a good athlete on tape he tested like one of the most athletic defensive line prospects ever I didn’t quite see the elite testing that he showed at the combine but definitely some athletic upside there and Clemson defensive linemen are tough to evaluate they don’t really let their pass rushers especially their interior pass rushers just tee off and try to pressure the quarterback you got to really dig through the tape to find examples of them actually getting to work pass rushing moves and see what it would look like if they’re playing a three technique role in the NFL so it would not Shock me if he was more productive as a rookie than he was in his last year at College he does need to add some play strength I think to hold up in the Run game but you know I’m optimistic about him developing down the line and then his depth they’ve got to Quan Graham and kavus Street Graham has Elite length but he’s kind of lacking in bulk and he’s not really a great athlete he had some potential coming out of Texas and he’s been a solid rotational defensive lineman but never really developed into an impact player kavus Street has bounced around several teams uh San Francisco I think he was with the Eagles before they picked him up they signed him in the middle of last year he started a few games for them but he’s very undersized kind of a liability in the Run game and as a small explosive defensive lineman he just doesn’t have the pass rushing juice or skill set to really make up for his weaknesses and it’s a very solid group of linebackers probably the biggest discrepancy in draft capital investment and quality of play I would also say of all the positional groups in the NFL it’s one of the biggest gaps between National recognition and how good they are Kaden Ellis is a criminally underrated player I never hear anyone talk about him but I have him as tied for the 11th best linebacker in the NFL a lot of linebackers are either thumping stack and shed guys or their smaller linebackers that have to just outrun and avoid blocks but Ellis has the ability to Anchor and shed blocks with his hands but at the same time zigzag and weave through traffic he almost looks like Russell Westbrook just slashing and slicing through help defense getting to the basket if you want to watch a full game of elite linebacker play check out Kaden Ellis versus the Colts in week 16 it was a dominant performance he reads the game so quickly he knows exactly the most efficient path to take to the ball he knows how the blocks are going to set up and what type of contact he has to avoid he has the size to play off of Blocks he’s a good tackler he adds some value as a pass rusher he isn’t an elite cover linebacker but definitely holds his own in that phase you see him right here running with K dton on this out and up gets his head turned around down the field plays the ball in the air and then a nice job on this play defending TJ Hawkinson on this option route subtle grab of the arm away from the ref’s field of vision sticks his hand into the passing Lane and shields the receiver from the ball and they were expecting Troy Anderson their second round pick in 2022 to be one of their long-term starting linebackers but he tore his Peck in week three and Nate lman a udfa from the same class stepped in and gave them really good linebacker play he started every game outside of weeks 1 and three and he had the second highest Run Stop rate of any linebacker in the NFL compared to Kaden Ellis he isn’t as good of a block shedder he isn’t as consistent of a tackler but like Ellis he diagnoses things extremely quickly in the Run game always in the right spot he still has the size to play off of Blocks he’s not someone that gets pushed around at the second level so they ended up weathering the storm of losing Troy Anderson and actually finding a quality starter from a udfa he also had three forced fumbles last year that’s the kind of thing where it’s hard to project if that’s going to continue from year to year but still a lot of high value plays that he’s adding and as a run defending second linebacker I feel great about Nate lman now in coverage I thought he really struggled and it’s not like Troy Anderson was great there as a rookie but if he can get back healthy and at least take somewhat of a step forward I actually think there’s a chance that you want to have Anderson in there as your second linebacker he ran something in the 48s so there are speed and athleticism limitations with Nate lman you see this play he’s out leveraged on the slip screen loses the corner to Alvin chimra and misses the tackle right here he’s trying to run with a tight end on this dig route but just can’t keep up with him step for step and then right here he can’t keep up with DeAndre Hopkins on this drag route and ends up giving up a touchdown but he also really needs to improve his awareness in coverage after Richie Grant I think Nate lman probably led this team in coverage bus this play he loses track of his assignment Brian Robinson he leaks out of the backfield uncovered on this screen and takes it for a touchdown right here hard bite on the play action can’t connect to the tight end leaking out and he doesn’t have the athletic traits to recover when he gets himself out of position and he’s just oblivious stuff developing behind him in zone coverage this play he just drops to his spot covers grass doesn’t recognize the drag route developing behind him and gives up a big play and then right here again he’s just dropping to a spot covering one two by two area of the field this deep out from the number three goes completely uncovered and the Saints convert third down so even though Nate lman was very good in the Run game and I think he should be considered the day one starter if Troy Anderson can give you a bit of an upgrade in coverage I think that might be an Avenue you want to explore and JD bertron is their fourth linebacker I thought was a solid pick in the fifth round he’s undersized but a heat seeking missile type of player has no fear of contact there were a lot of plays on his Notre Dame tape where he would just kind of spear himself into the offensive line and not even make the tackle but he would make the play just by disrupting the timing and spacing and at the Senior Bowl he was by far the most communicative linebacker on the field it’s hard to evaluate linebackers in Mobile but you could hear him from the stands calling things out making checks I think he’ll be a good special teams player and could potentially carve out a role as a starter sometime down the line the quarterback room is kind of similar to receiver where they have a great number one and then a lot of questions outside of that although I do think they have more options at corner than they do receiver after his breakout second year in 2021 AJ Terrell had kind of a Down year in 2022 and then last year he bounced back to form and I think reestablished himself as one of the best corners in the NFL I have him rated as the sixth best corner in the NFL tied with jayen Ramsey and lerus Sneed he’s an outstanding press Corner good ball skills Smart in zone coverage he’s one of those players that has the most difficult matchup on the field usually in press usually covering the team’s best receiver so he will give up some plays but hard to do a whole lot better than AJ Terrell as your quarterback one CB2 is where there’s some more questions I have them going with Clark Phillips right now but it could easily end up being Antonio Hamilton Phillips was a fourth round pick in 2023 he got his first start in week 14 against Tampa Bay I don’t know if Auda got injured or if they benched him uh Falcons fans can let me know in the comments but that first start against the Bucks was outstanding he was targeted six times gave up zero receptions he was covering Mike Evans Chris Godwin for most of the game and pretty much playing blanket coverage so after watching that start I was thinking man the Falcons might have found a steal here in the fourth round the rest of his tape was was a lot more up and down still had some good plays this is a really nice break on this speed out against DJ Moore I think um it’s hard to tell with some of these weak 17 plays in the snowstorm the all 22s pretty much ruined and he had a nice pass break up here in the endzone against the Saints from week 18 but looking at his tape overall it’s hard to be too confident in him being a consistently tight man coverage player he’s very grabby and had a difficult time mirroring horizontal breaks he got some holding penalties some legal contact sometimes where he was just completely off balance ended up on the ground allowing a lot of Separation he also lost track of his assignment a lot when they would attack his blind spot this play chuba hubber gets high and outside disconnects from the route ends up about 10 yards away from him by the time he makes the catch right here Adam Thelen shakes him on this Stop Route sends him drifting backwards and then he gave up some insane contested catches in the week 18 matchup with New Orleans right here he just can’t reach into the catching window at Perry makes a really nice grab on this jump ball and then this play against Chris o la it’s hard to fault Clark Phillips too much for anything he did or didn’t do it’s just an insane grab by Ave I think the ball actually ends up bouncing off of Clark Phillips helmet and olve comes down with it so Phillips play was kind of up and down it’s a small sample size with just five or six starts he showed enough flashes that I’m comfortable projecting him as the cornerback too but I definitely think it’ll be an open competition at slot I’m assuming they go with d Alford who’s a second-year udfa he’s a playmaker someone that definitely pops off the tape whenever you watch the Falcons defense but at this point he just isn’t a consistently sticky man coverage player so if you had a potential upgrade I think you definitely want to explore that this rev against Chris o la is just textbook as far as anticipating the comeback route when the receiver attacks your blind spot he had some great plays in the Houston game and the first Tampa Bay game this play he sticks with Robert Woods as he extends his route for the scramble drill ends up getting the pass break up and then right here he sticks tight to this deep over gets into the passing Lane and forces the incompletion this play he squares up with Mike Evans undercuts the post route in the red zone and then good job in zone coverage here to break up this pass to Chris Godwin but I felt like he was a lot better in coverage earlier in the season his level of play kind of declined as the year went on and looking at this plot which has pff’s separation prevented for Corners which I think is the best cornerback metric that’s available I think it lines up with the film most often he was one of the worst in the league in terms of Separation prevented or separation allowed and he tries to play off a guys and not make too much unnecessary contact but he just doesn’t have the elite fluidity and mirror skills to get away with doing that he consistently lets receivers separate out of their breaks and ends up allowing a lot of big plays Antonio Hamilton could be some competition for that cornerback two spot he’s a really interesting player a udfa in 2016 that didn’t really see meaningful playing time until 2022 or 2021 he didn’t have more than 140 snaps in a season until 2021 when he went to Arizona and by the second half of 2023 he had established a role as a full-time starter and actually showed that he was a pretty good corner he is very aggressive especially from off coverage he’ll make a lot of plays breaking on a deep out but then he’ll also get beat biting on a double move and he doesn’t have Elite explosiveness so there sometimes he’ll try to make a play on a deep out but he just can’t get there in time I think he’s a good backup option if Clark Phillips doesn’t take that next step you have at least a replacement level starter that you feel okay about but ideally Phillips can develop and win that second starter job and then Kevin King and Mike Hughes are former first round picks career Journeymen backup types Hughes is more of a slot that can play outside I’ve never really been impressed with what I’ve seen from him and Kevin King I haven’t seen play in what seems like forever he actually hasn’t registered a snap since 2021 but what I remember from him he’s a player that you probably don’t want seeing the field and the best group on this defense is safety which ranks fourth in the NFL Jesse Bates as good as he was all those years in Cincinnati I think had a career season in 2023 he made so many plays as the center Fielding free safety baptized Bryce young a couple times in week one he got a pick six on Derek Carr in week 12 saw that slant for mashid Shahed from the snap so he was making making plays all over the field in coverage but then he was also an elite run Defender and he had three forced fumbles as it stands now I would say Kyle Hamilton is probably the most versatile safety in the NFL but Jesse Bates and Antoine Winfield Jr are the most complete safeties and then we were expecting or hoping that Richie Grant would take the next step and be a really good running mate to Jesse Bates he ended up being a liability for the Falcons defense at times just so many coverage busts constantly out of position position I thought he had a really promising second year in 2022 but in 2023 he gave up five touchdowns and ended up getting benched for a seventh round pick DeMarco Helms and I was pleasantly surprised by Helm’s tape he’s like the polar opposite of Richie Grant he doesn’t really make a lot of plays didn’t have an interception or a pass breakup but he doesn’t give up any plays on 249 coverage snaps he allowed a total of 36 yards one reception over 10 yards was a 12 yard catch in week 16 he’s a great run Defender he can shed blocks physical tackler perfect fit as a box safety next to Jesse Bates I think speed and athleticism is definitely a question there were a couple times that he got beat down the field but he wasn’t targeted but he’s looking like a really good fine in the seventh round and definitely someone I’m comfortable with starting so that’s going to do it for today’s video I plan on doing some other team previews like this don’t have time to get to every single team but I’d like to cover some of the more interesting team teams in the NFL ideally outside of the top 10 and let me know in the comments any teams that you’d be interested in seeing a deep dive on [Music] [Music]

*This Is The Atlanta Falcons’ Year: Film Breakdown*

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00:00 – Intro
01:30 – 2023 Stats
02:50 – Offense
03:49 – Quarterback
06:34 – Running Back
08:40 – Wide Receiver
19:03 – Offensive Line
26:17 – Defense
26:27 – Edge Rusher
32:29 – Defensive Line
35:57 – Linebacker
40:33 – Cornerback
46:01 – Safety

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*All film used is courtesy of NFL+ and the All-22 broadcasts associated with that service and subscription. No copyright is intended.*