The New Orleans Saints – Schrödinger’s football team

The New Orleans Saints – Schrödinger’s football team

it’s going to be a weird episode today uh cuz we’re talking about a very weird team I really don’t know if they’re good or not I don’t even think Saints fans know if they’re good or not if you watch this team last year it was I wouldn’t even say it’s a roller coaster because they were just so confusing like I wouldn’t even call it inconsistent they were so confusing because they were so good and so bad at the same time they were incredibly frustrating they were an analytics darling that just couldn’t win games they were supposed to win there was a lot to praise about them but so much to criticize you know there was a lot of turnover in the offseason in terms of the coaching staff which probably explains some of that but yeah I I I would say this is going to be one of the hardest episodes to do because I truly don’t know what I’m looking at with the Saints like you could sell me on 11 games in winning the division you could sell me on their cleaning house at the end of year like I I got nothing it’s a funny team to watch and by funny Saints fans I don’t mean funny haha I mean odd because we’ll talk about a bunch of numbers that point to them being outstanding or should have been we’ll point to a bunch of numbers which do not quarterback play was the same way had some moments of oh wow yeah they can absolutely beat anybody and some moments of I don’t think they could beat the local high school team today it’s an up and down team they’re going to have to find some consistency I think our best hope for the episode is just to present the facts and let everybody make their own conclusions because if we make conclusions right now we’re probably just going to be wrong I’ll tell you right now this episode’s going to be very hopeful uh for Saints fans and also uh very critical at the same time I don’t know if we’re going to help them parse out what their favorite team is again we’re just going to present the data we’re going to present the facts uh we’re going to talk about some of the changes that made in the coaching staff that may or may not improve things in 2024 all I’ll say is this is one of the only actual Wild Card teams in the league and I don’t mean wild card in terms of like wild card playoff Wild Card playoffs I’m talking wild card in the sense that I really don’t know what we’re going to get in a good and a bad way so uh again Saints fans hunker down big episode today it’s your day today of course uh Jay Autumn Anthony roll the [Music] intro yeah welcome back once again to the boot Lake football podcast I’m Brett that’s EJ talking Saints today uh from up here in the Pacific Northwest out here on the water in the Puget Sound from Anderson Island it’s a beautiful day obviously we thought about going outside to shoot this episode but uh unfortunately there is a breakfast buffet for a lot of Seagulls going on right now and they are being very loud about it so we’re shooting inside audio is a little bit easier in here but yeah it’s showing off glad it gets to while you’re up here you don’t think it’s all gray Doom and Gloom of course we can tell everybody it’s all gray Doom and Gloom don’t move here it’s always awful yes if there’s one thing Pacific northwesterners love the most is gatekeeping where they live uh so that the rest of us Californians don’t come up here and when you say the rest because so many of you are already here I mean have you seen the home prizes in California I have I have where else are we going to live EJ other than the rest of the country driving up everybody else’s property values it’s what we do best uh all right talking Saints today before I go down a real estate Gloom rabbit hole before we uh before we get into all the existential crisis and everything like that uh all right actually no today it probably is an existential crisis if I think about it because uh Saints fans went through a lot of [ __ ] last year uh I know they won nine games they were knocking on the door of the playoffs they finished the year strong but even Saints fans would say when they were watching this team that it just didn’t feel right it didn’t feel that way it didn’t feel like a lot of the strength metrics that were we’re going to talk about translated to their every Sunday experience on the field it was a very different feel it was more tenuous it was more up and down it was more I’m not sure what we’re going to get today and that’s not a great feeling to have as a football fan uh I don’t know that we’re going to quell any of those fears and say that it’s not going to happen again in 2024 today we’ll start by talking about what happened in 2023 that sets the stage we won’t spend too long on because you all watched it and then we’ll go into the changes they made to try and check the boxes off to fix those things so that it doesn’t happen again or at least they all don’t happen again so you don’t just get a carbon copy of last season which would not be super fun uh I want to give a little caveat by the way for all the stats you’re about to hear the Saints did have tied with the Falcons of course uh the easiest strength of schedule in the league so you’re going to hear a lot of positive numbers today uh but keep in mind they played a lot of really really bad teams I want to say their strength of schedule was like around 425 430 somewhere in that ballp pork I know it was under 450 um so very few times last year did they actually face uh a quote unquote good team and they put up some really nice numbers as a result of that but at the same time those numbers were what’s the word not deceiving Juiced they come with context they come with context they come with Nuance so 2023 Saints overall record nine and8 against that easy schedule second in the division 5- three at home four- five on the road very balanced last five games and this is usually a cause for Hope 4- one teams that finish strong down the stretch tend to have a better season the next year than teams that don’t we’ll see if that holds true for the Saints so we’ve got an Effectiveness summary for you this year and it’s really two numbers last year we introduced you to power score this year we’re going to introduce you to a metric called QBs or quarterback support I came up with it a couple of months ago with arjent Menan from PF it’s five statistics that really set the table for how well should a team have done power score is how well they actually did QBs says given all the things that you had on offense there’s three offensive ranks a defensive rank and a special teams rank how good was this team around the quarterback how well did you set the table for them to win games so it’s a 0 to 100 scale 100 the best zero the worst the saints were a 64.5 that placed them 12th out of 32 teams it’s pretty darn good for a team that didn’t win its division that’s a lot of support as we transition to power score we introduced it to it last year six statistics rushing offense passing offense rushing defense passing defense points scored and points allowed we simply assign the team their league rank were they 10th were they 15th everybody wants to be be first in all those but of course they can’t be saints were 19th in rushing offense 15th in passing offense great Rush defense they were third pass defense they were ninth again top 10 team points scored ninth we’ll talk about how that’s a little bit deceiving and points allowed eighth so a lot of single digit numbers in there a lot of top 10 numbers for a team that again didn’t feel like a top 10 team for most of the year the asteris on points scored uh they were right at the middle of the league until they played the Falcons and hung 45 on them at the end of the year not even 45 48 48 it 487 they dumped on them in the last week right they were deadass average in terms of points scored at 16th that bumped them all the way up to 10th in terms of points per game so yeah again I don’t want to say it’s deceiving because you don’t get to those types of numbers by accident but at the same time they did beat the hell out of some pretty bad teams last year like 34 nothing against the Patriots that happened you know they played against the Titans they played against the Falcons who were not good last year we talked about them yesterday about how how much they underperformed relative to the quality of their roster and I I would guess the mark of a good team is beating the crap out of bad teams but again you would expect against the worst strength of schedule for them to have done that more and I think overall that’s what frustrated Saint fans last year uh and especially frustrated them with the offensive staff is like Saints fans knew they were playing against Bad teams like they pay attention to the rest of the league sure like Saints fans are actually one of the fan bases that I think pays the most attention to what’s going on outside of New Orleans they knew they were playing against Bad teams and I think the whole time they were thinking why aren’t we murdering everybody like it just felt like this team vastly underperformed for what they should have been interestingly enough and here’s where the contradiction comes in so when you take those six ranks from power score and you average amount their power score was 10.5 lower is better in power score everybody wants to be number one that was the sixth overall best power score in the league and it just didn’t feel like it like when you’re watching their games that’s why this team is so weird exactly but they set the table at 12th for QBs they were 12th in terms of how they should have done and they were sixth in terms of how they did do so they actually overperformed which is again backward nine win team it doesn’t feel like that at all so here’s where the Saints get really weird and contradictory right most teams that we say oh they were up and down and they were inconsistent and you know you’d say oh well they should have done this well and they actually did this well the Saints it’s reversed they set the table at the 12th best level in the league and they performed at the sixth best level in the league this is a team that breaks every statistical model yes the New Orleans Saints which honestly if you watch a lot of NFC South football shouldn’t shock you because the NFC South never makes sense this team really does not make sense yeah typically any team that has a top 10 defense we’re among the top 10 in points scored any of those teams that’s a top 10 team not languishing near 500 and the Saints were the latter now hearing all of that I’m sure Saints fans are then wondering okay how what the hell man like what what can we point to to give us some sort of context of what the hell was even going on last year uh again the offensive staff was mostly replaced and we’ll get into some of the names who did that but um I want to talk about what they did last year specifically or rather what caused them the most problems last year specifically from from a a schematic perspective and a data perspective on offense right so cuak and Benton are coming in probably to import you know a kubc Shanahan style Clint is Gary’s son Kyle used to coach under Gary uh Gary used to coach under Kyle’s dad so you know family business going multiple Generations right so we expect a lot of the wide Zone stuff a lot of the play action stuff lots of deep crosses do a all that you know John Benton he coached with Kyle in San Francisco for a while he was the offensive line coach there so they’re going to install that type of offense right pretty wildly different I would say to what they did last year under Carmichael and his staff which was mostly cleaned out um I would say the Hallmark of the Saints offensively last year was getting to the Red Zone and then completely stalling out they were eighth in terms of Red Zone trips per game at 3.5 that’s really good by the way if you’re getting into the red zone three to four times per game you expect to score a lot of points but at the same time they only scored touchdowns on 53% of those Red Zone trips which was well below average in the league so they would give themselves opportunities and then completely flame out so they were you know trading threes for sevens so to speak it also kind of explains why their EPA was so high because it’s expected points added it doesn’t measure actual points scored so that’s how you end up with like top 10 apas but you’re hanging you know dead average in terms of point scor until the last game of the year when you put up 48 um they were 12th in most passing and receiving categories that matter last year except for yards after the catch so it felt like everything they got was because of you know Derek Carr pushing the ball down the field they were not a team uh you know that was just going to make something happen in space and kind of you just kind of get cheap easy yards it just felt like everything was hard they were second to last in terms of yards after after the catch per reception at at only 3.5 which is not good at all they were absolutely dead last in terms of play action usage when I say that things are going to change under kubak that’s one of the big numbers like they are going to be a heavy playay action team because that’s the world he comes from they were also the second lowest in terms of motion percentage at only 37% again that is going to increase a lot just because of the world that kubak and Benton come from uh tackle I would say was their obvious weak spot last year they did address that in the draft and we’ll get to fuaga and all that but uh when you combine I would say a static not Innovative offense whatsoever that puts everything on Derek Carr’s plate because again we are not using any sort of play action to open up the middle of the field we have bad tackle play we struggle to convert in the Red Zone like I now kind of understand a little bit more how they’re PA was so good but their actual Effectiveness was so bad they were the team that almost got there over and over and over again which must have been just a [ __ ] nightmare for Saints fans to watch last year because again every week you’re like how are we losing how is this even remotely possible execution was such a thing for them last year in terms of yes they’d complete the pass and no they’d get no more yards after that and so you’d see like it’s almost like the first 2third of what you need to do on any given play and then you’re like and break a tackle or and spin out get six more yards down the sideline nope they would get exactly the chunk sort of as expected when you talk about EPA yes we completed the pass went down it was almost like they were just stacking you know Legos or bricks right but they never got that big explosion where somebody comes just wipes the table off and gives you seven points so they would work and work and work and work they would get to the Red Zone and then it wouldn’t work wouldn’t break the tackle they’d have to settle for three right they’d be like well we got there which is two-thirds of the expectation but we didn’t score right we completed the pass but we didn’t get you know the extra 20 yards on the long Crosser that we hoped to have it was just like we get this it’s expected we get this it’s expected that’s a tough way to play football there was like a comical amount of consecutive Red Zone trip they had in the middle of the Year where they didn’t score a touchdown I can’t remember the exact number Saints fans you’ll have to chime in in the comments but like I guarantee you some of them have it like on the top of their head because it was everything that or it was the only thing I would say that people were talking about in like New Orleans Sports Talk Radio for like a solid three to four week stretch of like how are they constantly stalling out I remember seeing that statistic at that time and going no it’s like you didn’t accidentally score a touchdown one time I watched a lot of the Saints games not every single one you know not in full not every down of every game and I was like I don’t remember seeing one but you know I didn’t watch all the play really is that true it was like three or four weeks in a row yeah where they didn’t get any it’s like 17 trips or something it was ridiculous all of that is probably the best transition we’re going to get to uh talking about all of the new faces on this coaching staff by the way not just kubak and Benton but uh really the remaking of the whole offensive staff which you know unfortunately was very necessary Carmichael was there forever but it was very clear last year that change was was coming and change was needed and a lot of changes happened things come at you fast in the NFL uh again Carmichael one of the longest tenure coaches in the NFL with one organization but didn’t keep up and the results it’s a results based business if you don’t don’t do what you need to do it’s a meritocracy you’re eventually going to get moved out Saints made that choice um terms of long tenured Folks at the top Micky Lumis also has been with one Organization for seemingly forever as the GM and the Saints um Dennis Allen’s been there longer than you’d think um comes up with some very solid results I wouldn’t say spectacular but solid you talked about Clint kubak coming in as the offensive coordinator first year as the Saints OC was with San Francisco last year as the passing game specialist 11th year coaching in the NFL he was at safety at Colorado State yeah I think at that time his dad was was uh was still coaching the Broncos back in the day which I mean I back in the day for me was Gary kubak Texans coach and then he went to the Broncos and now it’s been long enough that that is back in the day where his son’s been in the NFL for 11 years since then so I am ancient I guess just withering away over here yeah I’m sure you’re farting dust as we speak defensive coordinator Joe Woods we won’t talk about him a lot it’s his second year last year was his first and was incredibly successful special teams coach Darren Rizzy on offense some of the notable assistants Rick Dennison senior offensive assistant 28 years of NFL coaching experience over three decades of football coaching experience 28 years in the NFL you want to lean on somebody to change an offense having a guy like that around we see more and more NFL staffs that grab the you know grizzled old wizard who knows everything about offense and has done it for three decades and just have them as a sounding board or someone that you can assign special projects to and say hey really need to know formation stuff I really because there’s nothing they haven’t seen so Rick Dennison serves that role for the Saints John Benton the offensive line coach replaces Doug Marrone formerly with the Jets and the 49ers as an offensive line coach so again comes from that Shanahan system um extremely experienced with coaching wide Zone Z so that’s why we expect that the Saints are going to run more of that and install that this year he’s the guy that gets to fix Trevor Penning because gets to fix Trevor Penning not not has to fix Trevor Penning you know you get to clean the board in everybody’s careers depend on fixing Trevor Penning at this point certainly an all eyes on situation uh it was one of the weak points in the offensive line last year it caused a lot of their problems offensively and if they’re going to rebound from that they’ve got to figure out a solution so that’s solidly on Benton’s plate Keith Williams is a wide receiver coach replacing Cody Burns receivers had a lot of issues last year if we mentioned some of them statistically but also just watching them on the field two of them ending up in the same place happened a lot of the time just things you don’t want to see at a pro level offense uh Williams super experience comes over from Baltimore he’s been there the last three years Super highly regarded receivers coach he’s also the personal receivers coach for Tyreek and Devonte and way back in the day kicking off his career he was the guy that got Devonte to Fresno State and Devonte credits uh Keith Williams with instilling in him a lot of the principles uh that allowed him to become a dominant route Runner and same thing for for Tyreek uh in fact I think the first look that people got at least public look that people got of Keith Williams was um he was in a destroying video back in the day when it was like three or four years ago we destroying back in the day being four years ago oh God I mean you know what I mean a while ago uh cuz it was uh it was while he was training Tyreek in the offseason destroying went down to do like one-on ones against Tyreek and of course like Tyreek smokes everybody but uh you kind of got a good look at at uh at Keith Williams and the drills he puts guys through in the offes and everything like that so uh he’s been doing it a long time a lot of very highlevel uh receivers uh both you know from the NFL all the way down to Youth Football go to him to learn the craft and I think they brought him in specifically to turn Chris olve from a very good receiver into a ridiculously good receiver yeah this is the Chris olve propaganda portion of the show was a massive olve fan couldn’t be happier about this particular Edition for the Saints Clancy Baron’s a tight end Coach 34 years of coaching experience I love this even split between college and the pros 17 and 17 um pretty rare to see an exactly balanced resume like that and then jar Evans is an offensive assistant with this team not offensive line assistant just offensive assistant again kind of a junior Rick Dennison we’re going to assign you to whatever we want given the week um saw jar at The Shrine Bowl he was helping the Saints with the scouting process a lot of the old linemen came out and they’re like yeah with the Saints it was jar Evans asking me questions which is the coolest thing to see uh from both sides just young players geeking out it’s great yeah the best defensive special teams uh Peter jenta senior defensive assistant again they have one on the offensive side side they should have one on the defensive side as well 44 years of coaching experience 32 in the NFL Brian Young is the pass rush specialist pass rush specialist say that three times fast one of the tags we see applied more often in the modern NFL where they’re not giving them necessarily a position title but just saying look we need you to help guys get to the quarterback and you did it for a long time in your own career um 15th season with the Saints as a coach now been there forever that makes you feel old played nine years in the NFL with the Rams and Saints on his own and now is one of the leading pass rush specialists in the league Marcus Robertson is the secondary coach 16th year of NFL coaching which doesn’t seem possible to me because I remember him as a player spent the last four with the Cardinals as their DB coach was on the Broncos staff with Joe woods and the Raiders with Dennis Allen so when you wonder sometimes why guys get jobs in the NFL it’s like well he coached with the head coach here and the DC here they probably got together and said hey we need somebody for the secondary and they both went well you worked with Marcus I’ve worked with Marcus let’s go get Marcus it’s a really intriguing staff uh especially on the offensive side uh I thought the Keith Williams and Benton hirers in particular were were the most impactful because those are the two guys brought into um I don’t want to say fix areas of need because receiver didn’t necessarily need to be fixed but it did need to be elevated because their top two with a la and Shahed as good as they were should have been more productive should have been even better and I think they’re trying to get them up to the level that they know they can play at um and then on the offensive line like obviously a change need to be made there so I think it’s a strong um hiring season for their like I don’t know the best way to phrase it I just think that their their assistants now are better than their assistants last year and maybe that will go a long way towards getting this team to play like they should be able to play or at least put up results that they should be able to put up and that in itself is a great transition to our Underdog top three because this entire segment is dedicated to values right we do this for all 32 teams one of the best three values for every single team when it comes to uh fantasy football I’m sure a lot of you guys are doing fantasy prep right now and you’re wondering okay well who do we target out of value for every single team this is kind of a unique situation because Crystal laes already going as wide receiver 12 so we don’t really associate him with value right but the reason why we do this section after the coaching section and after the scheme section is so that we can give you context why we both think Crystal La wide receiver 12 is a value right historically speaking this system you know all it does is feed targets to the number one you look at Andre Johnson you look at Pierre Garson back in the day um like history is litered with ex receivers in this offense that get just crazy amounts of targets crazy crazy amounts of yards because it’s built for that it it is purpose built to have that one guy that dominates everybody right and then when you also factor in the addition of Keith Williams who was brought into really ghetto La ready to be that kind of guy that kind of producer that kind of true number one where everything runs through him like the Saints are telling you what kind of Year Chris is about to have yep and it’s not wide receiver 12 it’s probably higher than that yeah the whole system’s built to funnel targets to that position we were already fans of the player fan of Chris La coming out in the draft from Ohio State really impressed with his first couple of years I think again he didn’t get as much attention from those years as he would have in some other places despite his performances which deserved him and now they’re basically just doubling down and saying we’re going to give you even more we’re going to give you more opportunities we’re going to give you more and we believe better coaching we are going to try and maximize you and we’ve talked about maximizers a bunch during this series again they didn’t play poorly last year but they think they can turn the dial up and they’re trying to and they’re telling you that they’re going to so 12 might seem high at the end of the year it’s probably not going to seem high I would also say rased Shahed at wide receiver 55 also a big value again we say everything’s running through a lot and it is like by a lot it will but there still are some more targets to be had especially like third down targets um you know typically it’s like the number one is getting a bunch of the early down work he’s getting the shot plays off playay action everything like that but on third down you still need the other guy who’s going to be the chain mover and I think rased Shahed is is well suited for that he’s a great separator reliable hands and all that um so I I would say he’s probably going to do the majority of the third down work where Al is going to get the majority of the Yards and catches overall but that third down work is still worth more to me than wide receiver 55 you know I could see him being high 30s low 40s which is still a value for sure and I think they’re going to try and get more out of the limited targets that he does get because he’s an explosive guy he’s got really good quickness again we talked about their lack of yards after the catch this system is I don’t want to say predicated on yards after the catch but it’s built to create them and Shah’s a guy that can pay that off so even if it’s a lower number of Targets in volume overall he’s probably going to be getting more out of each one or at least the system is designed to get him more out of each one so I’m with you 55 feels a little bit low to me and at the end of the season clearly going to be wide receiver number two on this offense or Target number two let’s put it that way in in the past more of those targets have gone to the running back position I think some still will but we’re going to see an emphas is placed on receivers shahid’s clearly number two he can get more out of him they hope they can get more out of him than they did last year that’s the whole point of bringing in Williams and really changing the offense I think he’ll do better than 55 well speaking of running back I I think there is a discussion that needs to be had about Alvin chimra he’s going to his running back 17 right now for me that’s not really a value in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if Camaro finishes below that this is probably G to be even more of a committee than than even past Saints backfields and the Saints have always been known for running a committee approach but Alvin Camaro used to be you know when he was in his prime I don’t think he’s in his prime anymore you know when he really had that Prime explosiveness he could work off a limited touches and still be extraordinarily productive you know he was a great Red Zone threat he was a great receiver you know he was Alvin chimra he was awesome I don’t necessarily think he has that same kind of juice so if he’s still getting the limited touches I think he’s going to do not more with less like he used to I think he’s going to do less with less and so that kind of brings up the discussion of like all right well if you are going to take a Saints running back who are you doing for me the only one that’s actually a true value is going to be Kendry Miller who’s going to his running back 44 right now do I think that any of them are going to finish in the top 24 no do I think Kendra Miller will exceed his current ADP the most out of all three yes I’m still not really prioritizing the Saints Run game here um just because I think it’s going to be so committee is and it’s going to be a nightmare if you’re playing in a traditional League to try to figure out which one to start that’s why we play baseball so we don’t have to deal with that you know if you take Kendra Miller and he only has five weeks where he pops off well in beste ball you get credit for that it’s what makes baseball great so again play that on Underdog fantasy but I would say Kendra Miller has a higher likelihood in the current mix in the Saints backfield to have five of those monster weeks than Alvin chimra or Jamal Williams at least that’s how I see it because he’s the youngest guy he’s the most explosive guy I think he suits this system really well in terms of the Run schemes that we think they’re going to prioritize again are any of them going to finish top 24 probably not does he have the best chance to finish as like rb28 I would probably say yes see you’re just trying to butter up our Underdog colleague Hayden Winks oh he loves kendre Miller he’s a he’s a big kendre Miller guy so he’s loving this um shout out to Hayden if you don’t follow his work you absolutely should uh but I’m with you I think this is a year where we see Alvin CRA move move from what has been for a long time a dominant sort of primary role where he was the first consideration in a lot of what the saints were doing um whether by Design or just hey we dumped it off to him and he made it happen so again that gives him familiarity with the quarterback and comfort that’s been happening less and less I think we see that pattern continue I don’t see a rebound occurring and generally by midseason the offensive staff’s going to say hey we got to split these Touches at least evenly and by the end of the season down the stretch when you want these guys to be contributing I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s been deprioritized and is the second or possibly even third option he struggled with injuries as well it’s a long season he is not uh short in the tooth as running backs go a lot of tread off the tires so I think this is the year we start to see that transition happen in full and I would say it happens as early as midseason it’s crazy too just like how how fast it happens for a running back right it’s only 28 yeah but it’s like a buddy of mine that used to work on electrical stuff and electrical stuff is not my forte it’s one of the things I’ll pay people to do because it’s just not what I’m really comfortable with and it always seemed weird to me how electrical stuff fails and they’re like nope it’s basically binary it’s either one or zero on or off it works until it doesn’t and then it’s just it doesn’t work anymore M like it literally just burns out and it’s done just happens one day and running backs to me feel that way a lot of the time there’s very very rarely do we see late career strong Resurgence right we see sort of releveling a little bit or plateauing on the way down even that’s rare what we see more often is 28 29 30 especially 31 they get to a point and they just cannot do it anymore it’s a young man’s game and and that’s why teams cycle through running backs the only ones that I can think that just that get to their late 20s like that right after being the guy for for a long time uh that still hold up and play really well are like Frank Gore you know who’s one of the greatest running backs ever Derrick Henry one of the greatest running backs ever yeah and you know just kind of defy that timetable yeah we’ve been saying it about Henry for three years now got to be the year got to be the year got to be like uhuh not happening but again that’s a handful of guys out of hundreds and hundreds of running backs that we’ve seen over the past say decade and it just it’s much more common that these guys get to 28 29 30 especially 31 and that’s it they just you don’t hear from them again they have a couple more stops is the veteran guy in the room it’s the third option but that that’s it they’re done even if you think Alvin has one one more good year left in him I think I I think the odds of that happening are in terms of him like putting up you know top 12 running back levels right not even monster just top 12 to 15 I think the odds of him still being somewhere in that range are low enough that I would rather just again look at the value we’re getting with Kendry Miller and say I think I want to invest in something safer that has higher odds of finishing in that range you know a different running back who’s younger you know maybe he’s just on a a better offense overall uh you know maybe somebody who’s going to get uh more uh goal line work like whatever reason you have right somebody who we just think has a higher percentage of hitting that top 12 to 15 like say Joe Mixon in Houston right he’s going to be an elite offense he’s going to get all the goal line work like there’s a path to him scoring a bunch of touchdowns getting a bunch of receptions everything like that I would probably look at Joe Mixon and say yeah I feel better about that let me grab kendre Miller super late in the draft rather than taking an older Alvin chimra And just hoping everything’s still the same like I wouldn’t sleep very well at night for that no please don’t change please don’t change please don’t turn into a pumpkin now all time and it feels like the pumpkin status is much more likely now hopefully he’s got another year in him for Saints fans that would be ideal it’s a much better and stronger way to go out but the likelihood you have to play probability and the likelihood of that happening is just lower I would encourage people to uh come back to kendre Miller’s ADP as we get uh deeper into camp and deeper into preseason because there’s been wild swings already like I’m talking 30 40 spots already in his ADP just from a couple months ago so if you’re watching this late in the summer rb44 might not even apply anymore so again take it with a grain of salt for now we’re recording this on June 6th uh by the time we get to Camp he could be RB 30 we’ll see so again go on Underdog fantasy keep up with his ADP do all your beste ball drafts uh I would say best ball drafts on Underdog are a good way to prepare for your home leagues as well because they’re uh I I would say best ball drafts on Underdog hold more value because people have incentive to stay in and draft all the way through uh because again you know you’re tossing two bucks into a league you’re not just going to leave after the first two picks and let Auto draft do the rest like you’re actually going to try and play right so uh I would say mock drafts or treating Underdog baseball drafts like your mock drafts is a good way to to spend your time because you’re going to get a real look at at how people actually draft and just pay attention while you’re doing those to where kendre Miller is going because I’d bet Miller Now versus Miller in mid August are going to be two very different conversations so uh with all that being said let’s get to March let’s get to free agency you know everything this team did to uh you know remake their roster at least slightly remake their roster try to improve on that nine- win total from last year uh EJ take it away got to start with Michael Thomas big name for the Saints for a long time officially it’s a void year that counts um 42% of the snaps last year again age 31 hasn’t really ever been the same since the late ER career injury he suffered uh he’s officially no longer a saint Marcus May um 40% of the snaps last year was a big free agent signing when he got to New Orleans uh he too is gone and then they just spent a lot of work on cleaning out sort of the bottom end of the offensive line um James Hurst TR Turner Cameron Irving Max Garcia all gone none of them played I mean Hurst played significant amount of snaps because he had to not necessarily because they wanted him to because they wanted him to yeah but uh again all those guys have moved on uh Eno Benjamin uh one of our favorites who’s bounced around and hasn’t found a home is also no longer Saint um Isaac yam the corner is with 49ers uh jamus Winston um I don’t know how to classify jamus Winston’s tenure with the Saints uh but he is now with the Browns Zack Bon a linebacker who I think moved to a better place I we really liked Zack Bon coming out in the draft never really happened for him he didn’t bomb in New Orleans but he never ascended the way we thought he would and now he goes to the Eagles and yeah I want to clarify he’s not dead when he say he’s in a better place he’s alive he’s just in Philly he has not ascended to Nirvana he’s gone to play for the Eagles and I actually think that might be a better landing spot for him we’ll see um and then Andre Pete I would also classify in that like movement on the offensive line where we’ve got a new offensive line coach we want a bunch of new Talent so literally Five Guys from the sort of lower half of the Saints offensive line or no longer Saints um that really was the sort of story of who they let go in the off season and honestly like they had Pete play in tackle last year he’s not a tackle he’s a guard but they were just kind of in that situation where they had to do it results weren’t good no they were looking for their best five uh and they won a different best five this year a significantly different best five um I would say the most intriguing one um is jamus Winston to me just because of how it ended you know with that Jamal Williams thing against the Falcons where the players made a call in the field and Dennis Allen didn’t agree with it and a lot of saints fans were really upset at Dennis Allen for like apologizing to the Falcons and I’m kind of torn on it because on on one end like it it’s the Falcons right like of course they’re going to try to rub their nose in it you’re supposed to hate them and you know the team loves Jamal and they were trying to do right by Jamal um but at the same time it’s like if your coaches tell you to do something and you completely ignore that I don’t know the Vibes were so weird at the end of the Saints season because of that incident I guess you want to call it and I still don’t really know how I feel about it like all the way one way or the other I would love to get Saints fans opinions on it because it’s just again it’s almost kind of emblematic of what the saints were last year which is just weird strange Vibes for sure it felt more like a a high school rivalry thing or or even a you know College rival game thing that typically I mean I know we’re talking about players that all came from those ranks but there’s a lineing cross when you get to being a professional football player and if your coach says do one thing and you do another pretty much as you admit just on your own dime consequences man like we do that at our jobs right we say oh we’re going to one thing and go Noah we’re not going to do that and we go off in our own Direction yeah you you bear responsibility for that now in terms of against the Falcons sure Saints and Falcons hate each other I get it but it is odd and you know did it contribute we’ll never know like they might have just been as a player we don’t want to spend that money anymore but it didn’t help I’ll tell you that it’s just odd the whole thing’s just odd fully agree in terms of retentions uh on their own team as well as third party editions uh Ryan ramek did kind of a incentive based restructure incentives based on you know all pro pro bowl but mostly playing time there’s like six or seven million incentives just for playing time which to me signals they’re not sure he’s going to have a lot of playing time trying to come back from that injury some people have floated maybe he might have to medically retire yep we’ll see either way they got some cap relief from that restructure uh Mario Davis is back Tyron Matthew is back Rasheed Shahed who we mentioned earlier is back on a dirt cheap deal by the way he’s making less than a million dollars this year which is crazy unreal in terms of uh third party editions they brought in Chase young speaking of injury red flags that we’ll just have to see uh Chase young at 13 million a year uh Willie Gay Jr they brought over from the Chiefs at 3 million a year and said Wilson to be wide receiver three for at least I assume wide receiver for three for them uh at about 2.9 Million which again for the current receiver Market that’s what 112th of what Justin Jefferson makes so yeah it seems all right for a guy as good as said Wilson to be your number three um so yeah overall not a whole lot of crazy money spent um which for the Saints is probably a good thing because they’re still trying to get everything under control uh cap wise for the long term not just kind of playing musical chairs every single year like they’re trying to get [ __ ] under control aren’t they always trying to get [ __ ] under control with the cap like but they’re being responsible about it I’ll give them that I think responsible is a sliding scale in New Orleans it just feels like for the first time in a long time they’re not Mickey is not writing checks that future Mickey is going to have to cash yeah that’s a tomorrow Mickey problem they just took a year off from that and they’re like all right ease up let’s get [ __ ] settled for a little bit and then we’ll go back to spending crazy money in 2025 but uh everything made sense everything was responsible again the James thing was intriguing but maybe I’m reading more into that than than what’s there I just felt like the saints were being fairly chill in free agency for once which is a nice change of pace it is interesting to see how they devoted those dollars to the wide receiver room and how few those dollars are for literally two of their top let’s just say four starters depending on whether or not they’re going to roll at Perry out there as wide receiver 3 or whether it’s saided Wilson like that they do not have a lot of dollars outside of a and even not for him because he’s on his rookie contract if you look at the overall money spent Saint wide receiver core has got to be one of the lowest dollar units in the league oh it has to be has to be has they don’t have anybody making more than actually let me look at what what Ave is making this year I’m fascinated by this actually so this year olve is making his base salary is 985 th000 his cap hit is 5.3 million and he’s the most expensive receiver by far that’s pretty crazy yeah it’s unreal that you’ve got four guys that we kind of like and you’re you’re paying like less than a million for a couple of them for both your starters are making less than a million in salary that is a rare circumstance in the NFL also you want to know how much the Saints are projected to be over the cap next year honestly this proba gives more uh context for why they didn’t spend anything this year they’re trying to be trying to be a little responsible uh just take a guess of what they are over it next year I don’t know 62 million [Music] 85 it’s hilarious yeah future Mickey’s problems coming home to roost I didn’t even look at that before we started the section I was like now that I think about it like why were they uncharacteristically responsible like what’s coming down the pipe oh [ __ ] 85 million balloon payment got to make or you’re going to lose the shop it’s like I wonder whose void years are slamming home all at once next year good God all right well March was relatively uneventful but good it was solid they didn’t go crazy uh that brings us to April where honestly pretty fun draft not a huge class only seven picks um I don’t even know how many yeah they didn’t have any third or fourth rounders they had a bunch of day three guys only only two picks in the first 50 and then didn’t have another one till 150 but the values they got with those day three picks they got several guys that could have gone in the third or fourth round and it would have made sense I really like this draft from a strategic standpoint I think one of the worst kep secrets in the league was that New Orleans was going to go tackle with their first pick uh they needed it it was the clear upgrade spot that they had to address they hadn’t done in free agency or couldn’t do it in free agency because they didn’t have the dollars to do it so it became very clear that saints were going to get a tackle uh they go out and get to lisy faga the offensive tackle out of Oregon state whose High School is right over there about 12 miles tumat uh no he didn’t go to tumat went to mount he’s actually a to tooma kid um but had a great career at Oregon State they get him at the 14th pick overall in the first round they come back again with their only other top pick in the top 50 which is second round 41 they get Koolaid mckinstry The Corner out of Alabama the other corner but it’s hard to call him the other Corner yes terion went first but goua extremely talented fits very well with what they like to do um pairing him with a guy like Marshon Latimore that’s a really nice tanm was a strong pick then they drop all the way to the fifth round next pick is 150 they get Spencer Rattler the very talented and well-traveled quarterback out of South Carolina who’s changed quite a bit over the last few years of his college career I actually like that I thought that like you said was a great grab where they got him um and is going to give them a viable option for qb2 or qb3 um from now on could he be a guy that ascends to starter status he has that potential physically we’ll see I don’t think anybody’s counting on that but at 150 I thought it was a really solid value it was later than I expected him to go just because of of how valuable not just quarterback is but also backup quarterback if you’re looking at the amount of uh quarterbacks that get starts in the NFL year-over-year the average is more than two per team yep get starts year-over year I want to say it was like 70 something last year that got starts so it’s not enough just to have a qb1 I mean even Derek Carr last year was dealing with injuries right played through some stuff but like you need to have a second guy you’re only as good as your backup quarterback and how many times do we see teams that don’t have backup quarterback buttoned up and their season goes completely in the tank because of that you look at the Jets last year they were completely over indu indexed on Aon Rogers that lasted four snaps they were [ __ ] after that so yeah you take swings at backup quarterback the Saints had a good one last year in jamus but you keep taking swings at it so that you are insulated from your entire season going to waste because one guy gets rolled up on like you have to take swings of backup that’s what this was it was a good one the probability says you’re going to and that’s going to happen even more often as the season gets longer and there’s more games more injuries will occur and you just can’t not have somebody in the number two role that can win you a couple of those three four you know hopefully no more than five or six games your starters down it’s just not a responsible take as an NFL team anymore to say oh we’re all in on number one and number two is whatever we’ll just we’ll get what we get thought it was a great move from that perspective bub means the wide receiver out of Pittsburgh 20 picks later again in the fifth round at 170 tall fast guy that I liked his potential I did not think even in this talented wide receiver class that he would be available late in the 5ifth he was um again they add to that cheapest receiving core in the league with another talented guy Jaylen Ford the linebacker out of Texas really like this pick fifth round 175 I think he’s a talented two-way Defender that was a bit underrated um Saints just picking up dollars that other people dropped late in the draft and then our guy Christian Boyd the interior defensive Lyman from Northern Iowa way down in the sixth at 199 did crack the top 200 I think he’s much more talented than that this is a boon for the saints Saints fans you’re going to love this guy we interviewed him with Shrine bow at absolute wrecker comes with a plan great physical profile plays hard every snap I think he fits a lot of what the Saints defense has done in the past Joe Woods is going to love this guy he absolutely makes the team 100% then there are last pick Josiah ezim the offensive tackle out of Eastern Kentucky seventh round 239 overall love the Christian Boyd pick again he absolutely is going to make the team I would I would bet significant chunk of money on that um he’s going to probably back up uh Colin Saunders uh to start um you know kind of being a defensive tackle they can do anything for playing a shade all the way out to a three similar player too similar player similar build yep you know just a a very powerful squatty body with some pass rush versatility um very different than the other interior defensive lineman they took last year and Brian B I can’t imagine two more different DT prospects than those two guys they just have very different skill sets but I think they’re going to complement each other very well going forward um the jayen Ford pick love love love that he’s a great great uh Zone coverage linebacker he’s a bigger dude he’s more of like a classic throwback um you know like 240 plus pound plugger but with great Zone instincts like he’s a guy who you know when he’s when he’s dropping into a hook Zone like he’s going to follow a quarterback eyes break on the ball like actually pick it off like really really good Zone coverage Defender as well as a good run Defender as well uh bub means I’m kind of with you just because of of how talented he is even in this receiver class I thought he could have gone you know starting in late four would have made sense to me um to get him in the fifth round just to add into the room like they they got a bunch of guys as it is he’ll he’ll push for wide receiver five on this team I don’t know if he’ll if he’ll beat out everybody um because you got ala at one you got Shahed at two and then it’ll be either said Wilson or at Perry at three and then you know he’s competing with probably idemia St Brown for wide receiver five in terms of who gets activated so maybe it’ll come down to special teams I don’t know but uh he’s got a shot to make it so again we’re just talking about three day three picks it all have a shot to make the final 53 that’s great uh actually four day three picks if you count sper Rattler Kool-Aid going to great for them because this this team played the second most man coverage in all of the NFL last year at like 32% only Cleveland was higher so uh he kind of fits their profile of somebody who we can leave on an island and just trust it uh and then of course fuaga if they took anything other than tackle at 14 uh they were going to be wrong so I think it would have been a bigger shocker than what Atlanta did with their first round pick 100% yeah if if they came out and they took like Brock Bowers and instead of a tackle I think Saints fans would have checked out for the rest of the draft like all right we’re done see you in 2025 that brings us to udfas uh by the way you know they did have a very large udfa class uh Kyle sheets freak of nature at a slippery rock he’s going to try to compete uh with bub for that wide receiver Five Spot unless they decide to carry six maybe they will who knows we see uh could see him also making the practice squad uh Jacob kabot the running back at Louisiana could potentially make the practice squad D Hulker might make the final 53 I bet he does for this te group like they don’t they don’t necessarily have somebody like d Hulker and by that I mean he could be getting sucked into a black hole and he’s still going to make the catch like that dude will catch anything he’s kind of Mr third down himself too so I could see him making the team just for that because if he’s on the field and you throw him the ball he’s coming down with it uh sincere Haynesworth the center out of Tain probably a practice squad guy Miller Bradford the safety out of TCU might make the final 53 for special teams versatility and Matthew hayball very highly regarded punter uh out of Vandy some thought he was the second best punter in this class for me I I probably would have had him punter three uh behind Raya and Tory Taylor uh but still very highly regarded punter picking him up undrafted uh he he has a shot to make it as well not only a large udfa class but an incredibly strong one a lot of talent here that I thought was going to be drafted um D Hulker especially was very surprised he wasn’t drafted one of the most talented tight ends in college football last year one of the most productive tight ends in all of college football last year again uh runs his routes very well is tremendous asset at the catch Point sincere Hayworth a lot of people before the season thought that he had a grade that could have had him drafted in say the fifth round um and Mard Bradford the guy out of TCU the safety already has two ints already in OTAs he’s starting to be one of those guys that makes early noise gets coach’s attention people like I don’t know that we can leave that guy unprotected maybe he slides onto the practice quad because he didn’t have a super high profile but he’s already playing well in that defense so again early returns are good kabot was really talented just didn’t kind of have the uction that some of the top backs in this class had I would not be surprised at all to see him next year as like the Saints rb3 um very very good hall for again a team that is uh pinching pennies watching for the balloon payment to come due next year needs a lot of cheap talent and just kind of Rak through the udfa process pulled out a lot of gems so with all that being said brings us to our final segment uh well two segments really uh so we ask and answer answer two different questions to end each episode first question is did this team get better you know you’re looking at how they finished last year are they better worse or are they roughly the same based on you know all the additions and subtractions combined like did they kind of come out the same in the wash um there’s debate about this right because you’re asking a team to get better when through a lot of metrics they should have been one of the six to 10 best teams in the league right but at the same time they didn’t produce results like that so really the question is if this team gets better does that just mean they’re going to play up to what their actual potential already was right which is a kind of a different question but also the same qu again Saints are weird I know we’ve been spending an hour plus on this team and and we still don’t really have a good answer for that and so some of you are thinking why the [ __ ] did I watch this there’s Nuance here and at the end of the day I don’t really know which is why I’m saying thumbs even I’m not ready to say yes this team got better because they were already theoretically supposed to be a top six to 10 team yep is this team more likely than last year’s team to be a top six to 10 team I don’t think I’m ready to say that so I’m going to do the copout move here and say thumbs even because quite frankly in true New Orleans Saints fashion I got no idea yeah I’m going to go thumbs even but I’m not going to call it a copout move because I don’t think it is so I’ll explain why I’m going to go thumbs even I like the draft but outside of fuaga none of them are likely to start mhm so that’s not a huge needle mover they needed a tackle they got a tackle that’s great Kool-Aid might start but pulson adbo he’s got to displace him and he’s plays played pretty well he’s a great third corner it’s not that it’s not an asset it’s like how much are they going to get needle moving out of the draft this draft right away and the answer is not much fuaga is going to move the needle on the offensive line but that’s it so it’s some but not a ton they’re going in the right direction but looking at this roster I can’t say as I’ve stack up last year’s roster and this year’s roster like this one’s clearly better I can’t say it’s clearly worse either which is why I’m going to go even they underachieved last year so they might positively regress which means get better get back towards what they should be but will it be enough it’s impossible to say again with the rest the division having some improvement as well and them just being the odd ducks that they are and you know they should be better they have talent they could have achieved they didn’t they were in the middle on points but then they had this huge burst at the end of the all in all when you just sort of rinse and stir and shake it all out it’s about the same the only thing I think I can definitively say is if this team doesn’t win double digit games and make the playoffs Dennis Allen’s getting fired maybe I think he is I you look at last year again I think everybody everybody in that building knows they should have been better than they were they should have won more games than they did if there’s two straight years of that yeah he’s getting fired it’s possible but again New Orleans is weird and they have a weird tolerance uh you know there was a lot of people that said hey the offense was pretty stag two years ago like what’s Pete carmichel still doing here they were like nope we’re running it back and again a lot of people were calling for his job last year so we might look at it and say look if you get these same results what are we doing here sometimes a team has a different lens so I’m not going to say that’s guaranteed I’m going to say it’s going to get looked at for sure if there’s not an extraordinary circumstance that leads to you know a very low win total so when looking at ceiling and floor and again this is ceiling and winds and floor and winds they have a pretty narrow cone my difference is like three you know there’s some teams where it’s four five games you know maybe sometimes six games of like it could go really well or really disastrously I think the Saints are a more narrow cone um and so I put their ceiling at 10 and I put their floor at seven like no matter what they’re going to be in the middle of the league for me and I think that’s also why they frustrate me so much just because I know no matter what they’re going to be in the middle of the league which is also why I think there could be significant changes after this year I wanted to look at some of these metrics and be like ah do I do 11 do I do 12 because that’s that’s statistically what they should have been but at the same time I’m like do you believe that’s G to happen I don’t believe it I don’t believe it no like Dennis Allen Derek Carr at some point at some point you have to be realistic about what this is Right solid team could make the playoffs could be a [ __ ] and a half to beat depending on how well they play on the offensive defensive line but at the same times like do I believe in it though like to really get to that upper echelon do I believe in it nah not really they are what they are and that sounds like a cop out but I too have a ceiling of 10 and a floor of seven I’ll start with a floor first with a defense this good with very few changes and not a ton of big losses some nice additions it’s hard for a team to be really truly bad with a defense that’s that good we’re talking about a top 10 defense in every metric against the run against the pass and scoring like that is a solid foundation to build a team on it’s not exciting uh fans don’t love it all the time but it is a very solid foundation for a team and it means you’re never going to be like bad bad you’re never going to be down in the two three- win category because your defense is just too good offense has to play better they have to protect better A lot of these young receivers have to Blossom under the coaching that they’ve brought in uh take to the new system and that’s the only way they’re going to get towards that ceiling of 10 but I’m with you when I start thinking about competition I started thinking about who they are who they have at quarterback especially and I start thinking 12 12 12 wins out of the Saints it seems Rich to me is it possible it’s possible but I think a much more likely ceiling it’s double digit wins 10 competing for the division title which again gets you into the playoffs and after that all bets are off especially if you have a strong defense you can have a good day and Advance you can have a poor day and be one and done um I think that’s a much more likely end point for the 2024 Saints they’re fine you know not every team in in this series you know are we going to look at him and be like Super Bowl Contender yeah and not every team are we going to look at in this series and be like oh God this year is going to be garbage Contender for the first pick exactly Contender for the first pick this is one of those teams where it’s dead in the middle and we’re like yeah they’re they’re fine they’re good they’re okay they’ve demonstrated the ability to do it before they’re going to do it again for Saints fans look I hope that it’s the 10 wins competing for the division title that the offense is exciting that the team is I’m not going to say watchable they’re always watchable but watchable with a little bit less anxiety every Sunday it’s more watchable with just less confusion that too right less confusion less anger in some saints fan circles they’ll say less embarrassment that too you know looking at looking at some of the shenanigans that happened with the team last year not that they’re an embarrassing team it’s just there’s a couple moments last year we’re like guys what are we doing what are we doing here yeah I don’t know God weird team very weird weird team solid team but weird team uh Saints fans if you disagree with this I don’t blame you whatsoever your job is to you know support your team and be a fan and be like no no no 12 wins like we we got this [ __ ] the Falcons we’re winning the South like I get it that is your job our job is to compare this team to the rest of the league and try to try to make our best guesses I mean really these are guesses about where they kind of fall in line with everything so uh hopefully we didn’t furiate you uh too much while watching this it’s not our goal our goal is just to you know talk about your team and just give a different uh perspective from from people that that look at every team this time of year uh if you do want to support the Saints by the way while also uh sort of supporting us at the same time not even sort of actively supporting us at the same time uh I am wearing a Saints hoodie right now from our clothing partner over at homage I know people watching this from Louisiana probably don’t wear hoodies too much in the year but hey hey if you’re a Saints fan who’s up in the the Midwest or or the Pacific Northwest and you know you get good usage out of hoodies you can check that out at the link in the description below or if you want to wear Saints T-shirts because you live in Louisiana and it’s 70 to 100 degrees all year long you can do that as well uh anything you get at that link in the description below we directly get a cut of it whether it’s Saints gear or any other NFL gear uh or college gear or bootleg gear anything you guys get at homage we get a cut of it so we uh we really appreciate that uh thank you once again to all of our patrons especially our executive producer tier on patreon for helping to make this show possible thank you to our friends over at Underdog um I got nothing else EJ we got plenty more teams coming but I think we’re done talking about this one for now we have one more NFC South team to go talking Tampa Bay tomorrow and we’re also going to pick our division winner the NFC South tomorrow so see you then talking bucks [Music] [Music]

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Time Stamps
0:00 It’s Saints day!
5:16 This team does not make any sense
10:59 What actually went wrong?
17:34 Front Office and Staff Breakdown
24:28 So who should you actually draft?
37:22 Free Agency Losses and Gains
46:04 The other Saints rookies
56:48 Summary and Season Predictions

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