Could the Green Bay Packers have a top-10 secondary in the NFL this season?
could the Green Bay Packers have one of the best secondaries in the League this year you are locked on Packers your daily Green Bay Packers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team [Music] everyday you are locked on Packers part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day I’m Peter Bowski and I cover the Packers for the leap a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to follow me on Twitter Peter Bowski follow the podcast on Twitter locked on Packers like us on Facebook subscribe to the podcast iTunes Spotify Google podcast wherever you find podcasts you will find locked on Packers the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened they want to know why and how today’s episode brought to you by our friends at game time download the game time app create an account use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first ticket purchase last minute tickets the lowest price guaranteed terms do apply the Packers have plenty of talent in their secondary can they be one of the best groups in the league well Pro Football Focus came out with one of their rankings recently and have the Packers in the top 10 and I have to be honest and because I have criticized some of these rankings in the past I can’t just act like well because Prof Focus says it it must be gospel I joked about that on Twitter but but clearly that’s not how I feel about this stuff we are in ranking season this is just how this is going to work but so I thought about it and I said look I I don’t think they’re a top 10 group right now today um this was not a good defense last year now there were extenuating circumstances and I started to think about it and I thought well there is certainly a case to be made that this could happen if Eric Stokes is the guy that we saw in 2021 that’s not a huge ask it’s a we’re asking him to be a player we’ve already seen him be if jier Alexander is the healthiest version that we’ve seen of him for 17 games I have no doubts that he’s going to be at the very least a pro bowl level if not all pro level Corner Xavier mckin was one of the best safeties in the league last year we saw him play at a high level in a defense by the way that’s a lot of cover three a lot of cover one and a lot of blitzes there are definitely overlaps and similarities between what wink marale wanted to do in New York and what Jeff Halley we assume Jeff Halley wants to do in Green Bay this season and and keesan Nixon while I don’t think he’s you know like Chris Harris Jr reincarnated in the slot I think that he can take a step forward I think in this defense he is someone who certainly has the the continuity with the other players he’s a smart veteran player got better as a tackler look I’ve advocated for him playing some safety I hope they get creative with him and I thought he got better last year as the year went on and then as someone who is very high on Javon Bullard the best version of Javon Bullard is a really really good football player so as an ideal five Eric Stokes just being what we’ve seen not even take a step forward from that J Alexander just being what we’ve seen those two guys being healthy Xavier mckin just being what he was last year kesan Nixon just being what he’s been and then Javon Bullard being what he could be that’s really the only one that requires significant projection in the NFL everyone else we’ve seen them do it in the NFL you had a second round pick with real pedigree from one of the best defensive programs in the country if not the best and you go okay that’s that’s a really nice five then you’ve got Carrington Valentine as depth Anthony Johnson Jr comes back and then you have Evan Williams bottled and bond Kon oladapo uh that you added on day three for safety depth There’s real depth here now and that’s not even including Corey Ballentine who is a is a honestly a mighty fine boundary cornerback four like for for a fourth boundary corner he is really good for a fourth boundary corner like for a starting NFL Corner not really good but in a pinch if if he needs to give you some reps he can do that so that part of it is understandable like I see the road map to the team being really good in the secondary Jeff Halley comes in they’re able to mix things in the back end you get coverage disguises in ways that you just never did under Joe Barry you’ve got that post Snap safety rotation to confuse quarterbacks who don’t process quickly you’re going to Blitz more that’s going to protect your Corners a little bit because the ball’s going to have to come out either quicker or they’re going to have to process faster and for some quarterbacks you’re going to speed up their internal clock they’re not going to like that and they’re going to force the ball into coverage or they’re going to make off Target throws and you’re insulating your defensive backs your coverage group against that the Packers were 18th in coverage grade last year according to Pro Football Focus this was a bottom eight bottom 10 defense by almost any metric you want to use and so you have to hope that health is a big reason why they can be better in 2024 just a healthy version of Eric Stokes a healthy version of Jer Alexander just just start there that’s a really nice starting point two boundary Corners that have played at a high level in the NFL and and I need to reiterate this for the millionth time Eric Stokes as a rookie was not good for a rookie he was but it wasn’t just like that’s not the qualifier he wasn’t just oh he was pretty good for a rookie like that’s not what it was he was pretty good and a rookie he was a good NFL player as a rookie and then was miscast in Joe Barry’s defense playing soft off Zone coverage it’s just not who he is it’s not who he was at Georgia it has never been where he’s been at his best and and it reminded me of a lot of the situations with Joe Barry or excuse me with Ted Thompson and Dom Capers where Dom Capers needed veteran guyss because that was a complex system there was a lot of Disguise and blitzing and guys needed to know the the nuances of the game that was antithetical to the approach that TB Thompson wanted to take where it’s turned the roster over it’s new guys every year it’s young players it is draft and developed well that that just didn’t work for Dom Capers and and to a certain extent that was not how Mike McCarthy wanted to be even though it worked in offensive line and and frankly in quarterbacks and receivers like it actually ended up working it’s just not what Mike McCarthy necessarily wanted to do in fact he articulated that to Ted Thompson and Ted was like this is what we do they they drafted a press man corner to play play in Joe Barry’s scheme that that that doesn’t make sense and Joe Barry was not adaptive enough to make that work I think the the key difference here is not just the scheme that Jeff Halley is bringing it’s that Jeff Halley strikes me as the kind of coach who is far more adaptive played one way at Ohio State that’s a little bit different than some of the ways that they played at in San Francisco which is a little bit different than some of the ways they played in Cleveland and then comes to Bron College a different Talent level a different um level of competition to his peers and you have to do something a little different he seems like the kind of guy who can say okay when when the stakes change when the circumstances change I can adapt to now we can’t ignore the the health part like Jer has been hurt serious injures the last couple years Eric Stokes had that really solid rookie season and then has the major injury comes back comes back seemingly too soon gets reinjured um plays terribly when he’s out there which is a mirror of what happened in 2022 he wasn’t hurt but he came out not a good fit in Joe Barry’s defense did not play well gets hurt and then the next version of him that we saw was was worse we can’t just eliminate the the injury part of this and then there’s the unknown the the who’s going to be the other safety DAV mckin is a really good player I think he’s going to be an ideal fit in this defense but who’s the other guy and if they’re going to play three safeties then really who are the other two guys we don’t we just don’t have good answers for that and when we’re talking about the best defenses in the league the top 10 defenses they just don’t have those kinds of questions the Packers have talent and I think the pass rush their ability to get after the quarterback to create disruption and penetration up front ran Gary Lucas vaness Preston Smith Kenny Clark Devonte Wyatt Carl Brooks all those guys Kingsley ncbar um Kobe wooden they’re going to be able to to make life easier the coverage disguise the blitzes with edrian Cooper and Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffy they there’s they’re going to be able to help this secondary in a way that Joe Barry just wasn’t but there’s still plenty of questions all right we’re going to flip to the other side of the ball when we come back here un locked on Packers today’s episode brought to you by our friends at game time it’s baseball season baby and one of the best things to do on like a Wednesday afternoon if you’ve got a little extra time on a Saturday afternoon if you’re not working let’s head to a baseball game and sometimes you can do it last minute you don’t really know how to get tickets without feeling like you’re getting ripped off well the answer is game time last minute tickets you can save up to 60% when you buy last minute for sports concerts comedy theater and more save even more when you choose a section and let game time choose the seats it’s called a Zone deal on game time plus your purchase is covered with the most flexible customer service policy in the ticketing industry take the guesswork out of buying baseball tickets with Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code locked on NFL for $20 off download game time today last minute tickets the lowest price guaranteed are you watching Fox Sports or ESPN on your TV all day have to turn down the volume with all that shouting make the switch to locked on sports today a free 247 sports streaming Channel programmed for you every day to bring you the biggest stories without all the SC streaming lockon sports today brings you C Miss analysis opinions and news streaming 24/7 on YouTube or the free Amazon Fire TV channels app part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day we had this big discussion yesterday about receivers and you know if if they’re all so mid then it must me Jordan Love and Matt lafl awesome after we stopped recording I thought of an even more precise way to look at this and I think it it provides a really clear perspective here for what’s going on now before we dig in let me let me be crystal clear and transparent I think this is a very good group of receivers I think they help Matt laflor I think they help Jordan love not that it undercuts how good those guys are it’s just that I think they’re good and I think having a bunch of good players is good I’m on the record on that this is not you know me changing any of my stances on those things so let’s be 100% honest about what’s happening here but I also think it is the case that at the moment if we’re talking about wide receiver ones and I you know you know at this point in the game I do not care about the Packers having a wide receiver one or even who it is I don’t care do I think someone like Christian Watson hitting his ceiling is really good for this offense yes but not because he can become the alpha number one but which he could but because it’s really good when you’re really good players play their best like it’s it’s as simple as that it’s not any more complicated than that as as as the youth would say it’s not that deep okay so whoever you think the wide receiver won is all right think about think about them in your mind let be hypnotist here for a second a mentalist think about who you think the Packers number one receiver is this year doesn’t matter who you think it is Romeo dobs Christian Watson Jaden Reed Davian Wicks Bo Melton Malik Keith Luke Musgrave Josh Jacobs doesn’t matter Tucker craft doesn’t matter doesn’t matter doesn’t matter think of that person okay do you have the person are you thinking of them what rank in the NFL are they as the number one pass catcher in an offense and I’m now accounting for if you think it’s a running back if you think it’s a re a tight end what rank are they in terms of number one pass catchers in the NFL the top option on an offense where do they rank 20th did they rank 30th lower than that I can think of multiple teams who have multiple receivers who right now today are better than any receiver on the Packers again this is not to slander those players it is perspective on what the Packers were able to do last year and projecting forward what they could potentially be able to do this year if if some of these guys just take incremental steps forward the Rams have multiple receivers better than any receiver on the Packers I think you could make the case the Seahawks have multiple receivers better than any receiver currently on the Packers the Bengals multiple receivers the Dolphins multiple receivers that’s I just named five teams off the Dome who have two receivers better than anything the Packers have at its peak now I think and I’ve said this every day will remember me saying this because I’ve said it multiple times now that I think this is by one through five the best group in the league the deepest group in the league best hard to say deepest yes their their depth wide receiver four wide receiver 5 wide receiver six no team has players that good at those levels and I do think that matters but think about that wide receiver one where they rank in the NFL Jordan love through 20 or 32 touchdowns I had a backwards in my brain there for a second 32 touchdowns top five in touchdowns throwing to that offense with that guy as the number one receiver on the team this was a top five offense in EPA per play with that player as wide receiver one I just I went through the guys okay top 10 by EPA per play last year the quarterback this is the list it’s Brock pie speaking of teams with two receivers better than anyone the Packers has it’s Dak Prescott he has CD lamb it’s Josh Allen he had Stefan Diggs it’s Tua they were on the list then it’s Jordan love fifth in EPA per play last year and and these were his receivers after him Kirt cousins he’s got the best receiver in the league Justin Jefferson Jaylen Herz two receivers I didn’t even mention the Eagles AJ Brown Devon Smith two receivers better than anyone on Green Bay Lamar Jackson okay Lamar Jackson he’s in the conversation he’s an MVP for the reason though he’s the he’s the freaking MVP of the league Patrick Mahomes they won the Super Bowl I think he’s the best quarterback to ever walk this planet of Earth and I think you can also make the case that ri rice last year was as good or better than any Packers receiver so he might not even qualify and then Baker Mayfield he’s throwing a Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you go further down the list it’s guys like Jared gof who have Aman Rasin Brown Lions fans are quick to point that out they have Sam leapa so Matthew Stafford is below that with Cooper cup and puka AA Jordan love was more productive more efficient than those guys with a wide receiver one who like what are we doing here where where would you rank the best Green Bay receiver I I looked it up Pro Football Focus among receivers who played who got 20% of 197 total targets so what are we talking about here we’re talking about roughly 40 targets did I do that math right I think so the highest graded Packer by Pro Football Focus by receiver grade was davien wicks he was 29th 29th and yes multiple teams have multiple players ahead of the Packers and yet this is how good the offense was again this is not to slander these receivers who I think are really good especially as a group I think they’re really good I think they’re complimentary and I think Doug Farrar just WR wrote a really good piece about this about how teams without clearcut number ones are running an offense that becomes really difficult to stop because you can’t the thing we’ve been talking about on the show for months is you can’t lock in to any one player and that there is so much value in being able to do that so when we look at this offense the I even the question of do they need an alpha wide receiver one they answered it last year no but what I think is and and it’s intuitive and I talked with our pal Marcus Moser from locked on Cowboys about this yesterday it’s intuitive to say when the playoffs come that’s what you need except the Chiefs didn’t and a couple years ago the eagles with Nick Foles they didn’t and if you look at the Super Bowl champions over the last decade or so how many of them drafted a true Alpha number one the Patriots didn’t have a true Alpha number one receiver ever ever now Rob gronowski but they won multiple Super Bowls with either grank hurt and I don’t want to hear about Martell Bennett he was not not anywhere not anywhere near as good as grank or old like I know he had a nice Super Bowl against a Chief’s team that was dead on a Ral that second Patriots Super Bowl it’s not like grank was like the thing it was Julian Edelman who’s a seventh round slot receiver not not your like Elite number one receiver like the 18th best receiver in the league they came back to beat Atlanta throwing to James freaking like their third running back they came back doing that to win that game don’t tell me you need all of this stuff you don’t you need players who know where know where to go and you need a coaching staff that knows how to use them that’s what the Packers have that’s what the Packers have now here’s the question that I want to ask that’s related to this where do the tight ends fit in in all of this Luke Musgrave Tucker craft they’re they’re really talented players we saw flashes of greatness from them last year where do they fit in in all this we’ll talk about them next on locked on Packers lockon has launched the first ever National Sports 247 streaming Channel on YouTube and it’s also now available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app lock on sports today is here for you 247 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local Experts of locked on plus our national shows covering every League find locked on sports today now available on the free Fire TV channels app as we were talking about you know the best versions of this team I said you know look I think 12 Personnel can be a real weapon for the Packers in in 2024 just like I I thought it was in 2023 it’s easy to forget now that it wasn’t Jaden Reed or davien Wicks that everyone was so excited about last year starting in Spring ball the player everyone from the coaching staff to the players to the media they watched practice and they said Luke Musgrave is different man Tom peliso called him the biggest fast guy he’s ever seen and we saw early in the season the value of that and Jordan love missed some throws he’s open on some some seam routes that could have been huge plays I think he has an incredible amount of upside but the question becomes what is the best formation for this team what is the best Personnel Group for this team now I continue to believe that it’s 11 personnel three receivers on the field but then where do you play Luke Musgrave is he in line is he split out do you go double slot and put Luke Musgrave on the outside I think it depends on if you’re getting if you’re getting zone or you’re getting man coverage I love the idea again heavy Zone teams of putting Musgrave on the outside locking him on the backside one-on-one with a corner who you’re just basically letting him eat up and then you’ve got trips to the other side that sounds fun that sounds really fun but I I don’t want to forget that Tucker craft is a really good player we saw it last year the ability to make plays after the catch the feel in zone coverage I remember the play late in the game to seal it love buying some time Tucker cra draft was if if my memory serves chip release and he finds a way to get open a key conversion the Packers seal the win they go to the playoffs the whole nine they have to find ways to get both of those guys on the field I don’t know that 11 personnel split in the slot Tucker craft is the way for him to be used I don’t know that 11 personnel backside X receiver is the way to use Tucker craft I think you could especially if he’s just going to be kind of a give up route occupy the occupy the corner kind of thing not Wall Street the corner occupy the corner so you could use him that way but I think the best way to use him would be to use him with Musgrave with Musgrave you could go 12 both guys in line you could go 12 with mus grave in the slot and and craft in line you could go 12 and it’s it’s spread it’s gun it’s you know it’s four wide both guys in the slot or both guys on the outside like there’s so much flexibility that these players allow you to have and I think lost in all of these receiver discussions and look it’s my show so I’m I’m coupable on this too but lost in all of this is how talented how big a part of this offense the receivers can be and and you we we just haven’t talked enough about the tight ends as Jordan love gets more comfortable in this offense we saw him in the first half of the season when Luke Musgrave was healthy sail routes seam routes finding ways to get Luke Musgrave The Ball not just on these like hypers schemed up leak routes which by the way call it once a game and dare teams to defend it I swear to God but then it was when it was Tucker craft there’s the schemed up low Red Zone stuff that they killed teams with because they ran the ball effectively because they were willing to play in heavy personnel and it wasn’t all just predictable stuff by formation they can get to so many more things so many more formations so many more matchup based calls and that this is one of the reasons why the sky is just the limit the sky is the limit for this team and the Titans have have not gotten the glory in this and I hope that they I hope they have one of those games like I hope Luke musk has a game where he’s got like six catches for a buck 30 or Tucker craft has a game where he’s got five catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns they’re capable of that and I said on Twitter the other day I think as a Duo they have the most upside in the NFL and and got some push back hey Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer okay let’s see Brock Bowers play one NFL game let’s just like not even one NFL game how about one NFL snap before we we do this I think he’s going to be really good it’s not even about that but like we’ve gotten excited about rookies before and I think part of this is we have this draft industrial complex it’s becom a cabin industry and now everyone thinks that they’re they’re draft experts and we spend so much time talking about the draft and we have so much information that we it’s so invested that our investment makes us feel like okay well these players are probably going to be good or useful or whatever and and what do I say what do I say put it on my gravestone most rookies are bad by the way that means a lot of the Packers players from last year are probably going to be a lot better this year but we’ll see we’ll see all right back next week um I hope everyone enjoys their fourth uh I hope everyone um is is responsible with their fireworks uh responsible with whatever else uh they’re doing on the 4th whether it’s boating um consuming mass quantities mass quantities of adult beverages whatever else you’re into let’s have some fun let’s celebrate America America enjoy your cheeseburgers enjoy your beers whatever it is you’re out there doing enjoy it celebrate it and we’ll be back next week follow me on Twitter Peter Bowski follow the podcast on Twitter locked on Packers like us on Facebook subscribe to the podcast wherever you get podcasts and on all the social medias Twitter Tik Tok Instagram YouTube so you can stay locked on Packers
There are some elite players in the Packers secondary but also plenty of questions. Is there a path to the unit being elite? Plus, where does Green Bay’s WR1 — whoever you think it is — rank in the NFL?
Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…
🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOPackers?sid=YouTube
📢 Follow Locked On Packers on Social!
• Instagram: https://bit.ly/3VsdxCa
• Facebook: https://bit.ly/4c0DeAK
• Twitter / X: https://bit.ly/45rZjWo
• TikTok: https://bit.ly/3VjvEKy
Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More
🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFL
Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!
And follow Peter Bukowski on Twitter, where he’ll be sharing the latest news about the Green Bay Packers and talking with fans.
On Twitter: @Peter_Bukowski & @LockedOnPackers
Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!
BetterHelp
This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Make your brain your friend, with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/LOCKEDON today to get 10% off your first month.
eBay Motors
For parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit at eBayMotors.com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.
Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms Apply.
FanDuel
FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. As playoffs wind down, the sports stop sporting like we want them to. But this summer, FanDuel is hooking up ALL CUSTOMERS with a boost or a bonus, DAILY! That’s right, there’s something for everyone, every day, all summer long! Visit FANDUEL.COM/LOCKEDON and add a big win to your summer bucket list!
FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)