Dolphins in Depth: The Dolphins may be better in 2024, but will they make the playoffs?

Dolphins in Depth: The Dolphins may be better in 2024, but will they make the playoffs?

welcome to the latest episode of Miami herold’s Dolphins in depth podcast I’m your host Miami Herold columnist Omar Kelly we are inching closer and closer to the start of training camp rookies report uh on the 16th and Reporting right now is Miami Dolphins Barry Jackson uh man of many expertise I I borrowed him a little bit from his heat coverage I know you’re a little disappointed that it hasn’t been more active from a heat standpoint Barry but I mean do you not trust Pat Riley enough to know that he’s eventually going to figure out a way to get it done I do trust him what’s been the incredible transformation in the market Omar is how we used to see Riley be the one to make all of these bold moves Alonzo Morning Tim Hardaway Shaquille O’Neal the big three and now Chris Greer is the one plus the Panthers GM Bill Zito but Greer is the one attracting all the neon names the Jaylen Ramsay Tyreek Hills it’s just incredible to see that shift from Riley to Greer now I know it hasn’t resulted in any playoff wins yet for Miami but at least it’s made them relevant and interesting yeah but you know what I think that the the the apron the salary cap apron the NFL has a very different business model than the MBA and I I continue to make this point to people you know when you have dead cap you’re not paying it to anybody it’s not like a luxury tax like the NBA or other sports that’s just money that the owner is keeping in his pocket because he’s already paid it it’s it’s you know subterfuge and so there’s no now you can’t go over the cap in the in the NFL but you can live off credit card which is what the Dolphins are doing but now the business model of the NBA has sort of changed the way that the heat does business is isn’t that correct no no question about it and also one difference from the NFL is you can restructure contracts of course in the NFL you can’t in the NBA so you can’t go to an overplayed player in the NBA and say we’re going to cut you or uh the other alternative would be changing your contract that’s just not permitted in the NBA all contracts are guaranteed for any player worth his salt unlike the NFL and I think what’s going on with the NBA is there’s such punitive penalties and consequences such as not being able to trade future first round picks if you go over a certain salary level so they’ve made it much more difficult for teams and also I think more imp Pleasant for fans that’s why I like the NFL’s cap better Omar because at least there you can manipulate it if you have smart people in your front office there are ways around it to as we would say kick money down the road so that’s why even if you’re in cap hell in the NFL you can still Escape it you can go from cap hell to cap heck right and survive it and still be able to add good players isn’t it funny that the Dolphins entered this off season uh a ton over the salary cap and my goodness look at all the players they’ve added right true they’ve added a ton of players and we’ll get into that on this episode and in fact I think that they’ve upgraded a lot of positions uh during your vacation I discussed a lot of that with Alan paard I definitely want to get your take on some of that as well but to to challenge you a little bit I don’t like the NFL s business model even though they’re the clearly the Juggernaut of all the professional sports they make the most money they shake down the most television networks their ratings are are are super power ratings compared to what the NBA or any other sport Le can offer the guaranteed contracts the fake money the consistent shaking down of of of veterans um I I I hate I hate the business model um which is why it’s so important when a player has the leverage and is in position to ensure that he gets his guaranteed money like a Tyreek Hill who this is the last year of his guaranteed money usually players do not play in without the next year’s contract being guaranteed because teams can shake them down or teams can can leverage them which is why I think it’s it’s it’s it’s I hate it for the players because the new CBA was supposed to take care of the middle class and while the minimum salaries have raised significantly that’s the minimum salaries that’s the cheap players and every team is built on the same system where there are eight players who are making all the money and then everybody else making minimum wage and I think that that’s very disappointing from the business model standpoint but you know we’ll just continue to give quarterbacks $50 million contracts Barry and everybody’s everybody will be happy I guess I I just can’t believe that no NFL Union Leader has ever been able to get any concessions with regard to guaranteeing money because if there’s any Pro Sport where players deserve guaranteed contracts where they put their body at risk every week it’s the NFL and it stuns me that we’re sitting here in 2024 and there’s still no consistent guaranteed contracts for NFL players if I were the new Union director I would say you want an 18 game how about you guarantee every player’s contract at 75% throughout the terms of the deal not just the first year but if you’re going to give them a three-year deal 75% of that money is guaranteed no way the owners would accept that but at some point doesn’t some Union director have to put his his foot in the sand and say this has to be done this is inherently unfair and it’s different from every other hold on no no no the only reason and I’ve done a substantial amount of research the only reason that’s different from every other sport it’s not in the NBA contract or major league baseball contract or NHL contracts that contracts are guaranteed it is just the culture of the sports the agents will not allow it it’s it’s no in no language it just became over time this is how we’re doing business whereas the NFL has not gotten to that point and and I this is I’ve been doing this for over a a decade now where even the highest paid elite players Kirt cousin was Kirk Cousins and deshun Watson were the two players who challenged the norm Kirk Cousins had to do it on on two franchise tags and then he got Minnesota to give him a fully guaranteed contract um and in in this situation you know yes he went back on the market again and ended up with the Falcons and he got his first two years of his deal guaranteed but the majority of Kirk Cousins contracts from the two franchise tags to the entire duration of Minnesota contract was fully guaranteed no no quarterback outside of DeShaun Watson followed his Norm followed followed his lead and that’s where it has to come from the agents to actually be insistent and they would rather take fake money and fluff contracts just to impress future clients then actually take a real contract that is fully 100% guaranteed and it you know it it it has to change with the agents it because the players they don’t have the lifespan to sort of endure this some quarterbacks do but you see what’s happening there was Russell Wilson who came next after Kurt Cousins and he’s done two deals neither one of them were fully guaranteed deshun Watson was the only quarterback who actually did it and you know the circumstances of that but um right it’s signing bonuses also I think have enabled agents and the league to get away with not guaranteeing contracts that’s different from the NBA we’re we’re in the NFL if you give a player a significant signing Boe bonus that sort of plates them and removes the impetus to uh demand guaranteed money actually great point because we don’t have we don’t have ridiculous signing bonuses in in the uh NBA but excellent point on your part but Barry we we we talked a little bit about this roster and and you asked me a question uh before we began the show um what was that question again Barry the question was if you had to bet a finite amount of money let’s say $10,000 that this Dolphins team would definitely be a playoff team would you do it I think we can both agree and reasonable people can agree this is a good team but how certain can you be and there’s always the injury risk obviously but let’s say they stay healthy how certain can you be that this is a playoff team knowing that there are good teams that did not make the playoffs last year Cincinnati at the top of the list because of a quarterback injury that is going to have to bump out one of the seven AFC teams that did made the playoffs that would give me pause for thought I would not take that that um you’re making you you you make me if if if I had to put money on the line that whether they would or wouldn’t make the playoffs I wouldn’t put that money on the line and it’s not because I do not believe that it’s a talented team um it’s not because I don’t believe that they’re one of the best AFC teams for me it’s an injury concern uh and you brought it up um Tua Tong ofal who’s had one healthy season in his in his four previous years in the NFL um if Tu is sidelined six games forget about it um that that that’s just an easy layup right there you then you’ve got the defensive line you know Zack sealer clus Campbell one of those injuries are gone your whole defense is shot um you know hell Jaylen Ramsey kend Kendall Fuller do what do we what do we know about cam Smith is he ready to to handle the mantle um now you brought up the point about the Cincinnati Bengals and I I’ll also include the the New York Jets uh that’s team that you continue to hear more and more about especially with with Aaron Rogers coming back and being healthy and we don’t know where he is but his team’s in a desperate spot I think um their head coach and their GM is probably playing for their Li coaching for their lives um banking on on Aaron being Aaron and carrying a franchise but let’s say that he is that quarterback I think that they could potentially be the number one team in the AFC East and and that’s not discounting Josh Josh Allen the Dolphins daddy um it’s it’s you know I do think the Buffalo Bills have come back to the pack a little bit um however they still got Josh Allen and and Josh Allen has lost the Miami Dolphins twice in what seven years uh it’s you know he’s he’s a ridiculously talented quarterback um and as assuming that they can figure out what they’re going to do at the receiver position whether it be Chase Claypool or or Mack Hollands or you know and I’m I’m I’m only mentioning the Dolphins I know they got Shakir and and they got some other more accomplished uh wide receivers but you know they they get rid of Stefan digs and they got to figure out what they have to do at that position but they’re still a talented roster I I would make the argument to you that the AFC East probably has the four best teams in the NFL um because outside of the Patriots right three of the four sure yeah three you know Patriots are going to be the bottom dwellers I I think they’re they’re a team that’s going to be um positioning themselves for you know a a top pick even though they drafted their quarterback I I don’t I don’t see that much talent on that roster rookie coach I think they’re they’re kind of in a rebuilding mode like Miami Dolphins where with Brian Flores but Jets Aaron roders is an MVP what two years ago uh you know if he can regain that status has a little bit of comfort and familiarity in the offense jails they they they established their running game that their running back is a seconde removed from the AC uh they’re a scary team and the one thing I don’t feel comfortable about the Dolphins and we talked about this ad nauseum and yes they did a miraculous job of rebuilding the roster despite being in Capal or as I called it the apocalypse but if you look at this roster they are patched up with aged 12 players over 30 on this roster they’re one of the oldest NFL teams heading into training camp then you got a number of players who’ve got injury history and injury concerns which you know every NFL team it’s it’s 100% injury risk in in the NFL but let’s just say that we have to extract five starters from this team by the time we get to December five starters you pick whichever five starters are and and yes the bills will probably do the same thing this year even though they didn’t really have that many injuries last season the Jets will do the same thing are you comfortable extracting five starters from the team like last year when you lost the two pass rushers chub and and Phillips and and xaven Howard and then you had Javon Holland out then you had um um uh Raheem moster and and T um uh jayen W there you go we got so many Jaylen it’s hard to keep track of my jayen um are you comfort if I took five starters you picked the five starters are you comfortable at saying that this is still the same caliber of team that they were last year no and I want to preface this by saying I think Greer has done a good job this offseason I think they’ve built a good roster that is a playoff Contender but I also would say this I think there’s a greater risk of them missing the playoffs and a greater chance of them advancing to the Super Bowl which is something that I think Baltimore and Kansas City could not say so I look at it this way last year’s playoff teams Baltimore Kansas City the Dolphins Houston Cleveland Pittsburgh seven guys so the question is which of those seven teams is going to be bounced if Cincinnati or the Jets or even the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs that’s one to three teams that likely would not if those teams do I include Jacksonville just because of a division that’s winnable and obviously Lawrence still has a ceiling he hasn’t reached I’m not even mentioning the Chargers yet who will eventually be good under Harbaugh but probably won’t be this season so of those teams that made the playoffs last year Omar could make the case that the Texans are better after getting Diggs and some of their other moves the Steelers are likely better going from better quarterback Russell Wilson or Fields I I I would say it’s a slight uh slight improvement over picket whether it is Russell Wilson or fields at quarterback Cleveland getting Deshawn Watson back of Watson instead of Flaco who was very good for them but still obviously threw a lot of picks so what’s the team that you remove from the seven that made the playoffs last year to make room for Cincinnati if burrow is healthy all year to make room for the Jets if Rogers is healthy all year and if they can keep their very strong Supporting Cast Garrett Wilson Bree Hall Mike Williams healthy to me that puts the Dolphins at risk so even though I think they’re a good team they did a good job constructing this roster if they lose five players and other teams stay healthy I would say of the seven that made the playoffs last year I would say the Dolphins and Steelers would be the most at risk of falling out now some might say buffalo obviously because of losing their Center their two safeties their top two receivers or two of their top three with Diggs and Gabe Davis you can make the case that Shakur had surpassed Gabe Davis last year so some might say buffalo I would say Miami and Pittsburgh the teams most at risk of being supplanted by Cincinnati or the Jets or possibly Jacksonville that doesn’t mean I’m down on the roster it just means that they’ve got to acknowledge their teams that missed the playoffs last year that are every bit as good as them probably or perhaps even a little bit better and and of course obviously one big difference with the dolphin making it last year was two available for 17 games burrow available for only half so that’s why I I would not bet anything that they’re a sure fighter playoff team even while acknowledging that they’ve done a good job putting this team together and they’re a good team disagree with what let me play Devil’s Advocate with you here heading into that Buffalo game not Buffalo heading into that Baltimore game we were talking about number one seed AF AFC East Division being locked up Tua being MVP and then we had a rash of injuries they were the hottest team in the NFL for three quarters of the Season were they not and now all of a sudden we’re here we’re looking at an improved roster from the standpoint okay you got a better number three receiver and Odell Beckham Jr let’s hope he stays healthy you got a better tight end unit with Janu Smith um let’s hope he can be impactful and obviously stay healthy um I would say you’ve downgraded a little bit from the offensive line standpoint losing Robert hunt and Conor Williams no matter who their Replacements were they are upper echelon they were uppon players hell Robert Hun’s $100 million offensive guard there are very few offensive guards in the NFL history that can say they got a $100 million contract um and then Conor Williams even though he’s still out there as a free agent coming off that ACL injury his season when healthy was Mah Chef kiss um we don’t know exactly what we’re get we’re going to get from um the replacement Center is I forget his name uh with Aaron Brewer exactly who’s very gooder but obviously didn’t grade out particularly well as a pass as a pass protector and we’ll see if Butch Barry can help him technique wise with that now what I will say is I think you’ve upgraded a little bit at the safety Marcus May and Jordan puer are probably better I and then you’ve got a healthy Javon Holland let’s hope he stays healthy he’s playing in a contract year you know what happens when guys are playing in a contract year Barry um it’s time to show out so we can get the money a a and then I I will argue that you’ve upgraded at inside linebacker and then you you it’s a wash I’m not going to allow people to just sit here and pretend like xaven Howard was trash um second second most interceptions in the NFL since he’s been in league in 2016 um only behind uh Simmons Justin Simmons and then Kendall Fuller who struggled last year for whatever valid reasons you want to claim you know they traded away all of Washington’s pass rushers so no quarterback is going to really really good when they’ve got no pass rushing but Washington also said thanks but no thanks on a $7 million contract for for a veteran starter I I don’t want to disrespect uh Kendall Fuller but we don’t know he’s still an upper Escalon starter in this League neither do we know if xaven Howard is an upper Ron starter or if he can stay healthy he’s coming off that Liz Frank injury hasn’t found work it is what it is but can we really sit here and say maybe Fuller is more scheme diverse because he’s a better Zone quarterback than xaven Howard but is that clearly an upgrade and from a depth standpoint if if there was one unit that I’m a little bit concerned from a talent standpoint depthwise it would be cornerback oh no question about quarterback is my big concern on the roster Kendall Fuller is a very polarizing player there’s some who say he gave up uh too many completions which he has over the years but there are others who would say well those completions haven’t consistently gone for long yardage I found it interesting Pro Football Focus ranks Kendall Fuller the eighth best quarterback in the NFL they have Ramsey six they have Fuller eth so Jordan Brooks also very polarizing player you could make the case that he’s a high volume tackler he’s very active he’s in a lot of plays he’s going to put up numbers is going to fill the box score but you could also make the case that he was subpar very much so in past coverage until last year last year was his first good year and four years in coverage from a metric standpoint cornerback though to get back to that that’s by far my biggest concern because even if you assume that Ramsey and Fuller will be healthy and effective all year and you can make the effectiveness assumption with jayen Ramsey obviously your number three concerns me going into Camp will ker coo be the guy who Aver who allowed an 82 passer rating in his coverage area as a rookie or will he be the guy who allowed 133 pass rating in his coverage area last year second worst in the league will cam Smith be the player that Chris agreer viewed as a ball Hawk when he drafted him in the second round or will he be the guy that Vic pangio could not trust and played Ethan boner ahead of uh then would Bonner take a step to even be consideration for the number three quarterback job will need him be moved back to corner and camp where obviously he hasn’t played much in a couple of years because of the Achilles injury so will one of those four emerge as a number three will two of them emerge as a number three and a number four I don’t know how you can have any conviction about that even though we’re fond of all four players personally we see obviously the upside especially with Cam Smith I don’t see how you can sit here today and say the Dolphins have enough at number three and number four quarterback might they yes can you say they definitely do absolutely not and that’s why I think if there’s any position that could be addressed in mid August that would be it there are no players on the roster who need a better first three weeks of camp in my view than cam Smith and ker coo uh now I I can you I can beat you on that one Liam mikenberg okay well hey Jack Driscoll is walking through that door so Driscoll is there if Liam is not very good so yeah I do acknowledge guard would be a concern especially if Isaiah wi doesn’t stay healthy I’d throw one concern at you since we’ve started talking about these and that would be uh outside linebacker if chub and Phillips are not back to full speed by the beginning of the Season it would be quite a reach to think that both of them would be then can you trust that Jack Barrett into his 30s is going to be close to the player he was two or three years ago that’s why the van GLE move bothered me I would have gone the extra 3.5 million guaranteed which was the difference between the Barrett guarantee and the van GLE guarantee a younger player a younger player to count but does van and I love van I love gink but does van GLE fit this scheme the way that he probably would have fit Brian flores’s scheme or Vic fangio’s scheme it’s a little bit different um van gigle isn’t that great of an edge player but he was such a tremendous rusher last year and I think he sort of created a lot of his pressure from the inside linebacker spot um it’s it’s I a agree with you from a concern standpoint there are three players that I think automatically and really for that I would begin training camp on the pup from the standpoint of you get to stash him you get an extra roster spot you don’t have to rush them onto the field you know it’s Bradley chub Jaylen Phillips at Cameron good and and even uh savan oet because savan meds didn’t practice all offseason they’ve got six running backs stashed the guy let him let him progressively work his way back and and then maybe by the time you you get to the buy one of your running backs is injured you know the nature of the NFL but that’s that let’s put that over there you’re right Shaq Barrett chop Robinson muhammd Kamar and I’m I’m sure they’re going to find some some undrafted veteran and pretend like he undrafted player and pretend like he’s doing a stellar job um that that’s just the nature of the NFL those four are going to have to hold it down until we get to the by week and then you know hopefully we’ll progressively be working chub and and and Jaylen jayen back into the equation the the one concern that I have with those guys is is when Cameron Wake came back from his injury the same Achilles injury same as um Jaylen Phillips he wasn’t very good he had a great season but they limited his snap count limited his workload Lo until the midseason point and I think that that was a smart approach this was before the era of sports science too Barry so why would you not take that exact same approach with both of these guys especially when you know Bradley chub this is his second ACL injury um and you know Jaylen Phillips even though he’s he looks like a Greek god he’s got a injury history he he was selected in the first round even though he’s got a history of injuries you and you know who Mike McDaniel is you take the cautious approach now if they decide to not put them on the pup hey you know you you you have more knowledge and more of a conviction than than I do but it just is the smarter approach to take to if you because people don’t understand if you do not begin training camp with them on the pup they can’t go on it and and so why not begin them on the pup if you’re two weeks into the training camp and and they’re they’re ready to go then you can take them off it but you can carry them on the pup up until up until you you assemble your 53 man roster and then they don’t count against your 53 man roster they just count against your training camp roster so you know hopefully the Dolphins take the smart approach I I think Chris Greer is smart enough to to to know how to play the how to play the roster games um but then again do you do you listen to these players when they always arrogantly tell you I’m ready to go right I think it’s smart to place all four on pup to begin camping s sok mods as much as anyone on the roster is the break glass in case of emergency player because you don’t really need him on your 53 if you presume that Chris Brooks is going to continue building on what we showed last year there’s no place for him probably on this team unless one of the running backs gets injured or unless CH Chris Brooks regresses from a year ago the only thing that would give me even a little bit of Peace of Mind with regard to chub and Phillips being sidelined or limited early in the season is the fact that most of the great quarterbacks on your schedule are in the second half of the year the Bills game in week two is obviously the clear exception so you need a pass rush in that game against Josh Allen but you see what else they’re facing obviously Trevor Lawrence he might be a$ 255 million do quarterback but his career stats aren’t that much better than Blake Bortles so that’s what you get in week one obviously with Gino Smith uh potentially in week three uh you’re getting a guy who’s pretty good but no one who’s probably going to keep you up at nights you get will Lev oh Gino you you’re disrespecting Gino as his homecoming Barry you’re disrespecting Gino his homecoming totally unacceptable actually it’s not his home coming we’re we’re going up to Seattle and then five at New England so likely jacobe Brett unless Drake May is deemed ready but likely brette give uh please give it give me brassett I would rather brette than the Rook rookie quarterback um and then and then week seven ATS the Colts so Anthony Richardson so then late October Arizona and Kyler Murray so you could make the case that they’re facing only one great quarterback before October 26th and Josh Allen another pretty good one and Trevor Lawrence so that would be the only thing that would give me a little peace of mind with regard to all the points you make about chub and Phillips that even if they’re back we can’t expect vintage chub and Phillips right away and also I guess the one other thing that gives us a little piece of mind is adding K Campbell obviously not playing the outside linebacker position but will give you some assume that barring a free Asian Edition going into the season unless Jaylen Phillips uh is able to play week one which I guess certainly can’t be ruled out so the question is is there anyone on the roster at inside linebacker that you would like to see some snaps at outside linebacker I know Tindle is someone you pretty much given up on but obviously he showed pass rush skills at Georgia make that transition yeah I definitely think uh Channing Tindle I think the best thing that he can do is Rush that athleticism um I was very intrigued to that I asked that question to Vic fangio considering I was like basically he’s a bust uh as an inside linebacker do you think you can get any use of him as an outside lineer and Fano was like no um but I think if you had a coordinator who was less stubborn and less rigid maybe he’d think outside the box um I got to admit that I did like what I saw from chanon K Tindle during training camp um um where in past years he would not make a play all day um there were instances where he’d make two or three plays uh and I think that you can sense that there’s a young player who realizes hey man um they’re tired of waiting on me I either either need to poop or get off the pot um also not just that but I think that you can use clus as an edge if you wanted to if you wanted to go that route and in special packages and then also the Jonathan Harris and then um Neville gallamore their five technique guys you can get creative you can get creative and you could even go from to a 43 front you don’t absolutely necessarily have to have it really to me depends on how chop Robinson and muhamd Kamar are as Edge Setters a and to me that will sort of predicate what you do and how you do it um but on on that note Barry it was phenomenal to sit here and and break it down for you break it down with you in terms of where this roster is and mind you a lot of dolphin fans are probably going to get in their feelings because both of us said that if we had to put 10 grand on it we would not predict the Dolphins to make the playoffs now the M the level of money made me a little bit more cautious then yes I might have done it at a thousand but I gotta draw and again just to remind people we both like their team as the he would say right it’s a good roster they’ve done a good job even though they lost three really good players this offseason it’s more a function of the fact that you have to at least factor in the teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year that should be better Bengals Jets maybe Jaguars Chargers eventually under harau but probably not yet yes definitely well that’s it for the Miami Harolds dolphins in dep podcast we will see you again another episode this week

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This episode of Dolphins in Depth will discuss the state of the AFC and whether the Dolphins will make the playoffs for the third season in a row.

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