How Did Other First Overall Picks Perform When Jumping Straight To The NHL?

How Did Other First Overall Picks Perform When Jumping Straight To The NHL?

how have other number one overall picks who jump straight to the NHL produced over the past 20 seasons and what can we set as realistic expectations for Macklin celebrini you’re locked on sharks your daily podcast on the San Jose Sharks part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello welcome to Lo locked on sharks the premere hockey podcast covering your favorite team in the Bay Area my name is JD young caretaker at The Reef also the co-host of Western Conference Tuesdays on the locked on NHL Channel want to thank you for making locked on sharks your first listen probably part of the lockdown Eric recover your team every day if you want to be in everyday all you have to do is just follow wherever you get Podcast or you can watch on YouTube as well and today we’re going to be exploring um how other number one overall picks who went straight into the NHL um how they performed so we’re looking basically from uh Sydney Crosby on went through did all the homework got all the numbers crunched the numbers uh we’re going to be kind of seeing what these guys did and kind of trying to kind of figure out what are realistic expectations for Ma celebrini so before we get to all that do want to let you guys know that today’s episode is brought to you by indeed still searching for a great candidate for your company don’t search just match with indeed start hiring now with a $75 sponsor job credit to upgrade your job post and indeed.com lockon terms and conditions Supply need to hire you need indeed so when I was going through this process um one of my biggest things that I kind of took away was uh how many first overall picks actually go straight to the NHL um especially over the last you know I kind of I I really wanted like the Sydney Crosby era on right so kind of everybody uh who has been one of you know since the uh since the lockout and Sydney Crosby especially right because that is kind of the comp uh for Ma and celebrini so going through you know basically 20 years of guys here there hasn’t been too many who basically didn’t make the jump um you have Owen power of course who was pick 2021 went back to for another year at Michigan um and then you have basically everybody except for Eric Johnson uh who is uh you know a defenseman for the first overall pick for the blues back in 2006 other than that everybody else boom straight straight to the NHL so yes it’s a pick you know that that we have uh total one two three four five six 7 8 nine 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 players um over this time span who have gone number one overall pick straight to the NHL um so again I wanted to kind of see I very raw like Point predict you know how many goals did they score how many points do they score um how many points per game do they score because not everyone played the same amount of games we had a lockout season in there as well um what was and then what was their average time on night so just very raw like kind of Border basic statistic especially because um you know a lot of these early years there’s not that much for and I didn’t want to kind of try to mix like their cor C4 with teams that you know especially the the early years of not having those numbers available so I kind of wanted to to keep the same Baseline for everything so uh as I pull up on the screen here here’s everybody so you have Conor Bard y kovski uh Alexa laf Jack Hughes Ros mallene Nico heser Austin Matthews Conor McDavid Aaron EAB Nathan McKinnon uh of course everyone’s favorites Nail Yakupov Ryan Newen Hopkins Taylor Hall John tovera Steven Sam Co Patrick Kane Sydney Crosby so the first thing is like kind uh like or sorry uh M Salini is like in really good company because there’s a lot of like excellent excellent excellent players in here and like um the only guy who’s you could really consider a bust is Yakupov was the right winger that Edmonton picked in the 2012 draft everybody else is on their way to I mean I know Lexi Lafia has had a little bit of a up and down start but has really I think kind of solidified himself this year same thing with s kovski rough rough rookie season as we’ll get to here in a little bit but then solidified him you know I think really solidified himself and earned himself an extension a big extension um but all these other players are like really good players if not amazing players like you it makes you feel much better about well not much better but it makes you feel good about the type of you know people type of players that um Ma and celebrini is kind of gonna be mentioned about among so um in here I also kind of colorcoded them so um everybody in gold is a center everybody in blue like kind of the dark blue is a left wing uh every all the the both defensemen um so we only had two rossal um and Aaron eblad who went straight to the NHL um so those guys are in green and then the kind of tealish color uh is uh the right Wingers we had two of those and Kan and Yakupov um but mostly centers is and we’ll kind of dig into those a little bit more but um there’s a wide variety of guy many points are scored how many you know kind of their points points per game average time all night like all this stuff here but I think the big takeaway though is like you’re in really good company here with with you know um you have you know Conor Bard and Jack Hughes and Austin Matthews and McDavid and McKinnon right NJ Hopkin like there’s just a ton of really really great players um in this group here and like that that should make you feel pretty good about kind of what uh what is it should be expected for Ma on celbrity um this year not only this year but kind of long term as well um and we we’re going to look at kind of next we’ll look at you know what type of Seasons they kind of who had the best seasons and everything like that but and we’ll kind of go into you know what are some of the common or kind of the average and stuff like that but um you know I think the worst season out of here is zerov sosi’s season where he played 39 games and where he got hurt he had four goals six assists and 10 points um you know and you can go with Jack Hughes as probably the second Worst season and um The Devils have basically kind of come out and said like you know like yeah if we probably could have done it again we probably would have sent him um not had him come straight out and I think that’s Jack is kind of a big reason why Will Smith who Will Smith’s been comp to them you know to Jack Hughes a lot why he went back to Boston College to kind of not have to to deal with that you know especially with the Devils who were a very young team you you know you had uh Heir who was picked at first overall you know two seasons ago or two seasons before Jack Hughes did um but like overall though you’re seeing a lot of guys making big impacts right away um for their teams and I you know I know everyone’s gonna say well the striks are bad all these other teams are bad too like it’s you don’t get the first overall pick uh unless you’re one of the worst teams and I know the lottery rules have changed a lot you a lot more um for to be a lot more favoring to kind of the bad teams to stay in those those top picks over the past couple Seasons but still like you’re not um getting a top pick uh unless you’re one of among the worst teams in the NH L and these young players are going to these young teams and um right bad teams and you’re to kind of start to turn things around here and um so yeah we’re going to talk about some of the guys who had kind of some of the best seasons here um and kind of what those looked like we’ll look at kind of the top goal scorers the top uh Point producers all that fun stuff and then we’ll look at some expect kind of some numbers and averages for for m celebrini so uh we’ll get you here in just one second we’re driven by the search for better when it comes to hiring the best way to search for a canid isn’t the search at all don’t search match with indeed if you need to hire you need indeed indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million Global monthly visitors according to indeed data a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast dit to busy work use indeed for scheduling screening and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster indeed doesn’t just help you higher faster 93% of employeers agree indeed delivers the highest quality matches compared to other job sites according to a recent indeed survey so join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use indeed to hire great Talent fast and listeners to the show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com lockon let’s go to indeed.com lockon right now support our show by saying you heard about indeed on this podcast indeed.com lockon terms and conditions apply need to hire you need indeed all right um so what can we well let’s look at some of the the like best of best of here uh Seasons so and I think you have to start with the goal scorers um awesome Matthews hit the ground running with 40 goals and uh we know Austin Matthews are really good at scoring goals as you know he’s led the league in scoring you know last year led the league with 69 goals very nice um like he’s been a goal scoring machine since he touched ice in the NHL um 40 goals it’s pretty ridiculous I would don’t expect uh realistically don’t expect uh M celebrating to be around 40 goals especially with the talent around San Jose um you have Sydney Crosby 30 goals we’ll talk more about his uh rookie season here in a little bit uh then you have Nathan McKinnon and John TZ both at 24 goals and Steven stos at 23 goals and um those numbers will sound much more realistic uh for mlin celebrini um and kind of realistic expectations for him but um yeah Austin Matthews putting up 40 goals is is absolute Bonkers um but it’s not like he has kind of come in here and continue to just put up a bajillion goals um every season that he has played uh with the leafes so um maybe can’t do it in the playoffs but regular season Austin Matthews is gonna score bajillion goals every year so um yeah that’s how things started and that’s how things have gone for for Matthews so um looking at the top Point scores in Sydney C look at that young if you’re watching on YouTube uh found photos from their rookie season so very young Sydney Crosby uh put up 102 points his rookie season um Bonkers Bonkers Bon again um the sharks have had what two 200 Point seasons in their you know uh entire franchise history um I’m double cheing I’m fairly certain certain that’s it but it’s you know you had Joe Thorton um and then you had Eric Carlson as your like most points in a season um and I’m like it’s it’s ridiculous uh yeah so yep Joe Thorton Eric Carlson two two 200 Point seasons in the Sharks entire franchise uh Sydney Crosby walked in and did that day one so yeah uh if I expect M CBR to be 100 Point score at some point in his career uh maybe not as soon as he walks in but yeah Sydney Crosby was ridiculous I I think we kind of forget uh especially the younger kids how the expectations around Crosby and the fact that he just walked in and just was like I got this guys um yeah it’s pretty ridiculous so um Patrick Kane 72 points uh ausome Matthew 69 very nice uh Nathan McKinnon 63 and then Conor Bard 61 points this last season um which is probably why he won the CER um sorry Brock Faber fans but uh like it’s hitting that 60o Plateau is like a big deal especially as a rookie right now we you know we’re talking about William eckan as like that’s kind of the next Plateau for him as being that like 60 70 point player um but doing it remember these guys are all like 18 19 years old walking into the NHL especially we near the first ofall draft pick um and to do those type of numbers um as an teenager um it’s really really really special type of of performances from these kids so just something to keep in mind when we’re talking about like celebrini and like what his actual expectations are and what uh what realistic kind of production numbers should be for celebrini like it’s not easy to just walk in and be like yeah I’m going to put up 60 points in a season um and just kind kind of be that guy um and the Sharks again are going to be a very young team and that’s that’s all by design for for San Jose in my career um but like these are these are the five best seasons five in terms of points in the last you know basically 20 years um and you have five of them you know some of them just barely crack in the 60 point mark here so um yeah that’s again ridiculous season so uh points per game kind of in that same mold right um so how many points scored by how many games you played Sydney Crosby with a ridiculous 1.26 points per game uh ridiculous Conor McDavid 1.07 remember McDavid got hurt his I think if I recall correctly was like a broken foot or something like that um and he only played uh you know a handful he played what 45 games that’s yeah he played 45 games said 48 points uh including 16 goals and 32 assists in his first season um before getting knocked out with an injury so uh McDavid 107 so we’ve had again first overall picks first season um in the NHL two guys who crack a point per game um and they are generational players in Sydney Crosby and Conor McDavid like it just doesn’t happen uh and then Conor Bard who’s considered the next generational guy last year put up 0.9 points per game um for Chicago and that was a pretty good feat especially considering um you know they were supposed to have Taylor Hall lost him very early in the season like the team lost a lot of kind of their their topend talent and Bard had to do a lot of stuff night in night out so then Patrick Kane um 088 points per game and then Austin Matthews 084 uh points per game so you know I I think for for sharks fans right as much as we expect M onel to be great um those are very those are some of the best seasons that we have seen um in the past you know basically 20 years of of guys again first overall picks playing in their first season you know straight from uh straight into the NHL and we had two guys crack one points basically a point per game um and we’ve had you know what five guys who are who over 60 points uh during that time so it is it is those are big numbers and tough numbers to try to get to so I think um yeah I’m not I’m just trying to be realistic here what our realistic expectations and averages I guess would would be for ma celebrating that way we’re not like trying to put too much pressure on this kid already so uh we’ll get into what some of those averages look like you know if you kind of take everybody in and look at what some of those averages look like we’ll look at uh specifically centers and kind of what uh should be some numbers that celebrini shoots for here uh in just one second but before we do that um do want you guys know if once you guys are done checking out this episode make sure you guys go check out one of the other lockon NHL shows especially if you’re Bay Area fans right uh go check out lockon Niners if you want to get caught up uh get ready for training camp you got locked on warriors with uh summer league right now you got locked on A’s and locked on uh Giants of course uh I know it’s allar time right now but they just had the draft plenty of good baseball stuff going on there so make sure you guys go check out one of the other lock on uh podcasts wherever you get podcasts of course you can watch on YouTube as well all right uh let’s finish up by looking at what uh what can we actually expect for for Macklin solar bini so here’s the average of all the players uh what they did their first season so um average was 69 games played again some of these guys are injury there was a a season with uh where that was shut that was cut down to 48 games um like there there’s some of that stuff kind of baked in there but but still 69 out of 82 games played um averaging 19.4 goals with 29.2 assists so 48 uh point6 points right around 50 points uh with a069 points per game and average time on Ice was 1726 so um but this accounts for all forwards all defensemen um you know even the defenseman like they they had decent Seasons right um Russman stalen who’s played 82 games had nine goals 35 assists for 4 uh Four Points so he’s maybe kind of brings the uh some of like the goal totals down a little bit but he does help out the average time on Ice uh eblad in his first season had 80 in 81 games he had 12 goals 27 assists 39 points um but then again does also kind of Spike up the uh average time on I as he was playing almost 22 minutes a night as a 18-year-old rookie uh 18 19y old rookie so [Music] um yeah so what about centers and I think this gives you the most realistic like okay what what should we kind of expect for celebrini so 72.4 games played so maybe misses 10 injuries etc etc 23.3 goals 33.5 assists 56.8 points uh points 79 points per game with average time on is say 1738 I think those are realistic numbers I know you’re going to have the like you have the the two coins but you have this lvovsky you know 10 points in 40 games basically and then you have the Sydney Crosby 100 points uh so those kind of wash each other out there but I think these are realistic numbers for for mlin celebrini and we’ll um as the summer goes on we’ll talk about kind of Calder and what he would probably need to do uh to put himself in that race but um I think if you walked away with M brin’s first season if he’s right around 60 points you know 20 you know 20 to 25 goals 30 to 35 assists um and he’s played this you know he’s playing about eight 17 18 minutes a night um for an 18-year-old kid like I think you’d feel really good about M and cini’s uh kind of rookie season and so uh you know especially again one of the youngest players who’s gonna be one of the youngest or the youngest player in the NHL um having just turned 18 right um couple you know a month ago now so by the time you know the season starts he will be 18 in like three months or whatever but we’ve seen the way he plays and I I think you know at Boston University a lot his game is very translatable NHL wise like his ability to create on the rush great transition um you even saw even slightly slight game you know bit in in the uh the prospect scrimmage game but his ability to just kind of get the puck and get that there going and assuming Tyler tooli is on his wing which I would don’t know why you wouldn’t put Tyler to foly on his wing because their games are just perfectly meshed for each other um I could see a world where maybe it’s like 20 goals but to you know maybe it’s closer to 40 assists because of the way celebrini is able to pass and create offense and um Tyler Toole is just you know kind of riding along On on the rush and just crushing uh one-timers like that’s that seems like a potential offense for for the sharks at least better than what we’ve seen over the past couple Seasons excluding uh Eric Carlson’s Wizardry and like that that’s feel and if he’s playing second line minutes um you know especially to start and then as the season goes on if granley gets traded or celebrini eventually kind of takes the onec role I don’t picture Ryan wosi kind of just throwing him in there um right away I I think that’s why they wanted to keep granin for another season um that’s why you have wiberg and if Logan Couture comes back healthy like there’s it’s you know it’s okay to have him play second line minutes and I don’t want to say shelter him but put him in a position to succeed right we saw um especially learning experience I think from Conor Bard last year where he got stri dripped away of all the you know uh like Taylor Hall who is supposed to be a big part of that team right and they lose him basically in the first week of the Season you know Nick fho who got hurt for chunk of the season to um and he had to do a lot and I know um of course the big debate was well his plus minus stinks well of course his plus minus stinks that was one of the that was the second worst team in the NHL of course his plus minus is gonna stink and he’s playing a thousand minutes a night um you know Conor Bard last year was playing almost 20 minutes a night uh and he put up 61 points in 68 games on on that team like that that’s a really really insane season for again an 18-year-old kid who had uh was supposed to have his running mate uh like got taken away through you know a week into the season so um yeah I think though especially if the sharks can stay healthy and Tyler toole’s been a guy knock on wood uh Tyler tle has been pretty healthy guy but I think they’ve done much better job of kind of getting quality guys around him so if it isn’t to fley right know eckland’s in his second season but eckland’s played a couple years of pro hockey now between the AHL and the NHL and going back to Sweden like he he’s got several years of pro hockey under his his belt um you have zedin who had his breakout season last year and has the makings of potential 30 goal type of guy who also likes to get going on the rush um you know you have wiberg who play center or play Wing um and if Kor is healthy like there’s plenty more and then Will Smith and we’ll see if they put Smith and celebrini together at some point but there’s just way more Talent around celebrini than kind of what we expected last year I think that’s a big reason why also Will Smith went back to school um but like yeah I I I fully you know it’s it’s that trying to balance being cautiously optim istic but also being like you there’s a world where celebrini could be you know there is a a legit world world CBR could be like a 70o guy in his first season um and if he does that like you have to realize how special of a season that is especially when you’re looking at back at what other first round first overall picks did in their first Seasons with it in the NHL right if celebr were to hit that 70p point mark right that’s that’s the third time that would put him behind crossby Kane and then you’d have CBR at 70 points um like that’s a insanely special season and then you could be potentially talking about like we might have been underrating thini what what he could potentially do for for San Jose um because this team is only gonna get better right William M’s only gonna get get better Will Smith’s only going to get better cini is only going to get better and then you’re going to start adding pieces like musty and Halton in and you know some of the other guys that they’ve drafted like this and you’re GNA have a ton of cap space like this team is only going to get better here so um but yeah wanted to to I thought it was a fun exercise uh go through see kind of just compare some Seasons there um see see how that all looks so um that’s going to be it for me today back tomorrow where we actually have someone from the 2024 uh shark draft class join us for an interview so uh make sure you guys uh excuse me are following along for that uh you can follow wherever you get Podcast of course you can watch on YouTube as well follow show on Twitter Facebook and Instagram at lockon sharks follow me on Twitter at my fry hole till tomorrow bye friends [Music]

Macklin Celebrini is set to join a special group of players as a first-overall pick playing in the NHL right away. How have some of the other first overalls faired in their first season in the NHL? Start by looking at all the players who have been selected first and went straight to the NHL since the lockout. Then, break down which players had the best seasons in terms of goals, points, and points per game, which shows how special Sidney Crosby was when he joined the NHL, as well as Conor Bedard’s underrated season last year. Finally, what can we expect from Macklin Celebrini based on the averages of previous performances?

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