New NFL Kickoff rules and how they impact the Buffalo Bills roster decisions and strategy

New NFL Kickoff rules and how they impact the Buffalo Bills roster decisions and strategy

the NFL has adopted a new kickoff rule that will have a major impact on the Buffalo Bills how so I’m breaking that down for you today on lock on bills you are locked on bills your daily Buffalo Bills podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day what’s up bills Mafia uh H Joe Marino author of go bills and Buffalo’s run also the co-host of the lockon NFL scouting podcast and I’m your host of lockon bills want to thank you for making lockon bills your first listen every day and a big welcome and shout out to our every dayers you know who you are those of you who never miss a single episode I appreciate y’all being here very very much I’d also like to invite you to subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast we’re part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code lockon NFL for $20 off your first purchase terms apply well folks welcome in very excited to dive into today’s topic which is the NFL kickoff rule what’s different and how that will impact the Buffalo Bills from both a strategy perspective and a roster construction perspective and this was an episode that was highly requested I’ve been interacting with folks in the lockon bill subex community and so many people asked me to do an episode on the kickoff Rule and I’ve already done one back in March when everything was announced which gave some thoughts on it but since then we’ve learned a lot we’ve heard from NFL special teams coordinators we’ve seen more data from the XFL and it just positions us to have a better conversation about what this is all going to look like so that is what we are doing today I want to start by kind of getting into the rule change itself then I want to talk about what really happened with it in the XFL and then we will apply everything to the Buffalo Bills in terms of roster Construction in strategy so as I’ve said a few times this offseason since the rule change was announced this is the most significant rule change in my lifetime of watching the NFL this is no small deal this isn’t a a new penalty or something very small this is a big deal this is a notable shift and this new rule comes after the NFL had the lowest kick return rate in the history of the league in 2023 and the NFL passed this new rule with 29 teams being in favor three teams being against it the three teams that were against it the Green Bay Packers the Las Vegas Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers we’ve heard from the Packers and 49ers as to why they voted against it and I want to share their reasons with you and then we’ll talk about what the actual rule change is so the Packers their team president Mark Murphy had this to say uh as to why they voted against it he said quote our issue was that it’s such a major change our our thought was it makes sense to have as a trial or experiment in the preseason to see there’s going to be some unintended consequences and I just felt like it made sense to have a trial 49ers owner Jed York this is what he said quote the concern is that it’s a drastic change to a play from a health and safety standpoint we’ve tried to address the play it was the most highest rated injury play that existed so they’re going to they’re going from that to trying to reintroduce the play into the game and make it more of a real play as opposed to a ceremonial play I’m 100% for that I just want to make sure with something that’s brand new that we have the opportunity to address it during the middle of the season so Jed York just wanted some flexibility during the year to be able to make a change on the fly as opposed to after the season so what is this new rule uh that has everybody buzzing well first of all let me say that I’m going to provide a link in today’s show notes to an article that was released on Monday July 15th from summersport dcom they put together an incredible piece that broke down everything regarding the new kickoff rule I’m going to share a lot of that data in today’s podcast I thought the article did a really good job of really focusing ing in on blocking blocking schemes and coverage schemes for the play they also charted every XFL kickoff from 2023 which is over 400 kickoffs and shared the results and of course there’s a lot of carryover from the XFL kickoff rule to what is now in place in the NFL so here is how that article summarized the new rule and again there’s a link in today’s show notes the new kickoff will require the kicking team to have 10 players lined up with their Lead Foot on the receiving team’s 40 yd line the receiving team’s setup Zone will have at least nine players and will require seven of those players to have their Lead Foot on their own 35 yardline with alignment requirements based on the fields landmarks which are the numbers and the hashes two of the nine players in the return team setup Zone can be off the 35 yd line within a 5 yard range but must remain outside the hash marks the kickoff team and all return players in the setup Zone cannot move until the ball is either caught or hits the ground the returner or returners may move around freely before the ball is live and the kicker cannot cross the 50 yard line until the ball hits the ground or a returner so structurally just very different in terms of how things are set up and again I’d encourage you to click on the link for this article which is in today’s show notes that has video it has diagrams that really explain all of this um so you can not only see diagrams but actual plays from the XFL to get a true feel for what all this is going to look like so that’s the setup on the other side of it I want to talk about what happens once the ball is kicked talk about what happened in terms of the XFL and what the data says and uh then we’ll get into the very specific bills angle for this conversation folks so be sure to stick with me this show is sponsored by 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that’s where the ball has to land if a kick falls into the landing Zone the ball must be returned there are no fair catches that’s a big deal if it lands between the goal line and the 20 yard line the ball must be returned there is no such thing as a fair catch a kick that land short of the landing zone or is kicked out of bounds before the goal line will be placed on the receiving teams 40 yd line so that’s a big deal if you don’t get it in the landing Zone and it lands short or it’s kicked out of bounds before the goal line the team gets the ball at the 40 a kick that hits the landing Zone and then goes into the end zone must be returned or downed by the receiving team if the ball is down it will be placed on the receiving team’s 20 yard line so if you receive the ball or you take the football and it uh it goes into the end zone and you down the football it goes to the 20 and so that’s probably not a very attractive option for the receiving team a ball kick through the back of the end zone or one that bounces in the landing Zone and through the back of the end zone will be placed on the receiving team’s 30 yard line a ball kicked in the end zone stays in bounds returned or down if down then a Touchback to the 30 yard line so basically a traditional Touchback where it’s fielded in the end zone and down or it goes out of the back of the end zone that goes to the 30 which is different than the thing that’s before that means that the ball rolled into the end zone and is down or you fielded it and down it right it just goes to the 20 and then the last thing that I’ll say here is that onside kicks are only allowed in the fourth quar quarter as declared by the trailing team so you don’t have to ever think about a surprise onside kick under these new rules so that’s that’s the setup that’s the consequences that’s the rules right so what happened in the XFL because so a lot of this parallels what the XFL has been using there are some differences I think the three biggest differences between the XFL and the NF is first of all in in the XFL the ball was kicked from the kicking teams 30 it will be the 35 in the NFL kicks short of the landing zone or out of bounds in the XFL the ball goes to the 45 for the NFL that’s the 40 and touch touchbacks went to the 35 in the XFL the 30 in the NFL and I think that’s the most fascinating to me is that difference right there because there’s a part of me that just wonders if teams are just going to eventually just say hey we’re get we’re doing touchbacks we’re not dealing with this we don’t like the variance that this play introduces we have a hard time stopping it and we’re just going to give you the 30 yard line more on that to come but that’s one of my initial suspicions about all of this if things do become tricky for the coverage teams some other important data as it relates to the XFL 97% of kickoffs were returned 97% under the previous NFL kickoff rules last season that was only 22% so you’re going to see a a significant shift in the amount of kicks that are returned I don’t think you’re going to see teams Downing the ball and I’m not entirely sure you’re going to see kicking teams just give touchbacks and concede the 30 yard line the average yard line that the ball was fielded at last season in the XFL was the 7.7 yd line so that Landing zone is the goal line to the 20 and the average spot that the ball landed was about the seven and a half yard line yards per return last season in the XFL they averaged 20.8 yards per return and that makes the average starting field position the 30 I also thought this was fascinating there was only one kickoff return for a touchdown in the XFL last season and I think that’s one of our big suspicions is that well are you just going to see game significantly impacted because you’re going to see a lot of return touchdowns that wasn’t the case in the XFL they only had one all season and 97% of their kicks were returned in the NFL last season 22% of the kicks were returned and there was four kick return touchdowns so from a volume perspective the NFL actually had more kick return touchdowns although the average starting field position in the XFL was further than the NFL and of course that’s a big deal right your chances of scoring go up the better your starting field position is right that’s pretty obvious but there’s obviously also data that tells you that so these might feel like minor differences but these are the types of margins that I think are really significant to understand because I think it is going to have an impact I think teams are going to obviously there’s a big adjustment I think that’s where you start there’s a huge adjustment to how teams are going to kick off the ball how teams are going to return it what challenges they have along the way and then figuring it out on the Fly it’s not like you’re going to have an offseason to to figure this out nobody’s ever done this at the NFL level so it’s going to happen and every week you’re trying to adjust and so I think it’s going to have a significant impact will there be lots of kick return touchdowns well there weren’t in the XFL but this could be different you know I there’s some minor differences in the rules and perhaps it leads to more explosive returns in the NFL um but it’s it’s probably going to impact scoring i’ I’d s I’d be willing to bet that I think this will be a a season where scoring is up and actually last year it was down a little bit but I think it’ll go up this year and it could be one of the highest scoring seasons in NFL history just based on teams having better field position and it’s easier to score when you have less distance to go to score right that’s just how that goes so hopefully that positions you well to understand the rules what the rules led to in the XFL some of those differences on the other side of it’s probably the most important part of this specific conversation because I’m going to get into the specifics for the bills the decisions that they have to make in terms of the kicker the returner the coverage schemes the blocking schemes what that means for roster decisions so all of that is coming up here for you on the other side of it so be sure to stick with me folks there’s nothing quite like being at the Ballpark taking in a Major League baseball game during the summer if you want to do that you got to download the game time app game time is an authorized ticket Marketplace of Major League Baseball which makes getting tickets faster and easier and prices on the game time app actually go down the closer it gets to the first pitch with killer last minute deals all-in prices views from your seat and their lowest price guarantee game time takes the guesswork out of buying major league baseball tickets and they have everything all the sports music comedy and Theater events near you you can get tickets on the game time at app so snag the tickets without the stress download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code locked on NFL that’s l c o n NFL for $20 off download the game time app today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed so let’s apply all of this to the Buffalo Bills the first thing that I want to acknowledge here is that I believe that these kick returns are going to look a lot more like run plays it’s not as much of an open field play anymore it’s going to look a lot more like a run play and I think that impacts the types of returners we’re going to see having those opportunities to do kick return S I think it’s going to be more running backs where you want Vision you want contact balance I think those are your primary traits of course you want speed speed is always going to matter but I think there has to be instincts and vision with that speed there’s not as much air in the play it’s not as much of an open field play so with it being more condensed I think that puts more of an onus on vision and contact balance and I think the differences between a kick returner and a punt returner were always pretty significant in the NFL I think that variance between them is even more drastic under these new rules so who do I expect to be the guys for the Buffalo Bills that get these opportunities to return kicks two names really pop for me Ty Johnson and Curtis Samuel Ty Johnson really kind of the ultimate player for this because of course he is a running back that has four like low four four speed so running back skill in terms of vision and contact balance and feel with the ball in his hands in terms of being able to navigate tighter condensed areas but then he also does have a speed element because I think you are going to want to be able to break Pursuit angles you’re going to want to be able to Corner uh and win the edge and I think speed does matter there not quite as much as vision and contact balance so I think Tai Johnson is kind of your ultimate player for the Buffalo Bills to do this I think another guy that you’ll see involved is Curtis Samuel uh Curtis Samuel our wide receiver let’s make no mistake about it but a guy that does have running back skill in terms of his utilization at Ohio State very I mean just a lot of running back and receiver opportunities in the the NFL that’s obviously been way more receiver but still some opportunities to carry the football and I think in the context of these kick returns I think he’s a great option and he certainly gives you you know even more speed than Tai Johnson he’s got low 43 speed so that is attractive I think those are your two primary guys where when you think kick uh punt returns I’m thinking more about dayquon Hardy I’m thinking more about khil Shakir to handle those duties I think it’s Tai Johnson and Curtis Samuel those would be to me the two favorites to be the lead kickoff returners then there’s the whole kicker conversation and this is really really really fascinating um obviously you think well you got a kicker they would handle the kickoffs and and that’s probably going to be the case uh I know of at least one team that I’ve been able to Source um I won’t tell you what team it is I’ll tell you that it’s not the bills they are using their regular kicker to do the kickoffs and the thought here is that you’re going to see kickers involvement increase when it comes to having to make tackles and that’s that’s not a primary function of a kicker right you you saw Tyler bass try to tackle uh was it Jaylen Reger for the for the Patriots last year that wasn’t a pretty sight we’d like to see less of that but the reality is it feels like kickers are going to be more involved in terms of data last year in the XFL 4% of actual tackles were made by the kicker and that’s not a high percentage but it is a chunk but that’s only actual tackles that doesn’t include Miss tackles by the kicker it doesn’t include the influence of the kicker right because I think the kicker is going to have an important job of leveraging the return right so they’re kind of like the Deep safety and their job is to leverage right and and as that player funnel the ball back towards where the help is so while they’re going to make some tackles and they’re going to miss some tackles there’s a a leveraging of the ball component that you have to equate into what’s required of that position on this play Dave tube who’s one of the best special teams coaches in the entire NFL he’s the special teams coach for the Kansas City Chiefs he offered the following quote on on kicker involvement with these new rules keeping in mind they have Justin Reed Justin Reed is a starting a very good starting NFL safety that has a background of kicking he’s actually made field goals and done kickoffs in NFL games like what an asset that player is under these circumstances so this is what Dave tube said I like to have somebody who is able to make a tackle Harrison bucker who’s the chief’s kicker is able to make a tackle but I really don’t want him making tackles all year long if you watch the XFL and we watched every play I bet kickers were involved in probably at least 25 to 40% of the tackles either trying to make a guy bounce back or making the tackle itself or just missing the tackle we don’t want bucker in that situation but he will be the kicker he’ll be a guy we’ll use in certain situations he’s got a lot of ability to move the ball whereas the other guys may not be as a at doing that and will use him so that’s the piece of the kicker conversation while hang time no longer matters it’s completely irrelevant placement of the ball matters right you’re going to want to put the ball in certain spots that is advantageous for your coverage unit but then there’s the whole like knuckle kick this is an important thing you need if you have a a kicker that can do a knuckle kick which is kind of like a ball that doesn’t Spin and and just goes and bounces because once it lands everybody can move and if you can get that ball if you can get that returner to field the ball off the ground as opposed to catching it it’s going to elongate their ability to advance and so that knuckle kick is big and I don’t I for as attractive as a guy like Justin Reed is to do this he’s not going to give you that so he can make the tackle but there’s a trade-off so while it’s like can you just get anybody to get the ball to land in the landing Zone yeah there’s probably a large list on every team that can do it but can they get the right spin on the ball and can they directionally do it with consistency and can you avoid the C you know the the catastrophe which is kicking the ball out of bounds and the other team gets the ball at the 40 yard line so there’s a lot to to be mindful of it’s not just well he’s gonna have to make tackles there’s there’s so many layers to it and hopefully that unpacks all of it so Will Tyler bass be doing the kickoff my guess is yes but is there is there an element to this that lends itself to other people doing the kickoffs situationally when you want to have the tackler they’re going to be situations where you want to have the English on the ball right to create a certain spin Dynamic all of that factors into it the next question that I have about this is and I kind of teased this in the other segments is will there be touchbacks and this is another quote here from Dave tube that I think matters he said if we do a Touchback out of the back of the end zone now they’re getting the ball at the 30 instead of the 25 so that five yards makes a big difference that’s another 3% chance you’re giving the offense to score and one of my favorite things about the bills under the previous rule is that they didn’t concede the 25 yard line sometimes they did did but for the most part they wanted to force you to return the ball and a lot of times the bills were able to tackle teams well inside the 20 25 sometimes within the 20 and so now you’re making them go further to score now does that backfire sometimes yeah it does and it h you know it hurts it’s it sucks when that happens but for the most part I think it was advantageous to the bills so I think the outcomes will dictate this obviously but there is a piece of me that is suspicious that teams are going to say well if the average field position is the 30 and we can achieve that without having to deal with the tackling element yeah we’ll just kick the ball into the end zone and uh you can have the 30 I think every team will have a a different approach but based on the bills attitude towards the previous Touchback opportunities and now that it’s further down the field you feel like the bills are definitely going to be a team that’s not going to just kick the ball into the end zone although situationally that could happen and um you know as the outcomes happen you know we’ll we’ll see how that evolves so that’s a question that I have then there’s the blocking schemes and the alignment you’re you’re kind of limited in terms of the alignment requirements but there is different techniques that you can use obviously there’s trick plays that you can use with your two returners you can do reverses there’s different blocking schemes like you can set up a trap play right like have a couple guys block down and one guy block out and create a little trap play you can have guys pull and create numbers advantages uh in certain situations if they’re quick enough to get there you can just do man blocking you can do where everybody has okay I got this everybody just says I got you I got you I got you you you do man blocking you have certain drop blocking where you could take a couple of steps back and feel it out and just the objective there would be okay we’re going to drop back a little bit and then you know it’s it’s more like okay the first guy that we see uh approach a certain area the field that’s going to be our our guy right there’s so many different ways to do it I’m sure every team’s gon to have a different approach and I think it’s going to evolve a ton but that’s something to be mindful of then there’s the coverage schemes you know covering the kick um you can stunt right you can have guys cross you can have uh spies where you might pull some guys that are on the line back so you have a second level right so you have a first level that maybe takes on contact and a second level that is able to fill holes kind of like a dline linebacker relationship so there’s so many different options here with how you can block and how you can cover but I think the interesting part of that is how it impacts roster construction from the blocking perspective uh the XFL according to the article from Summer Sports they said look some teams did try using offensive linemen to block but they weren’t not fast enough to execute the blocks in space that’s my concern as well where there’s a while there’s it’s not as much of an open field play and the air is taken out of it you’re still asking 300 pound dudes that are amazing athletes relative their SI to their size you’re still asking them to connect with a moving Target in space which is very difficult to do so I think that in theory it sounds cool to use an offensive lineman and the bills do have a lot of athletic offensive lineman the reality is is those are going to be tough assignments and I think you’ll see maybe you’ll see some of that but I think for the most part you won’t see it and if you do I think it’ll phase out so that’s I think from the blocking perspective I think backup tight ends are going to be important bigger receivers guys like Mack Hollands Chase Claypool those guys are going to be helpful to kind of stalk block and do what they typically do on a on a run play when they’re playing offense linebackers I I think those those are the types of players even some defensive ends um would be helpful for the blocking now when it comes to the coverage units like I’ve talked about this feels like it’s going to be a run play and so I think certain Edge players are going to matter a ton I think about guys like Kingsley Jonathan Casey two Hill and Javon Solomon for the bills those guys are G to have an impact on these blocking and coverage units particularly the the coverage units because now these guys are going to basically to be defending Zone run plays and you know attacking with certain leverage and being able to disengage and make a tackle in space this is very much what they do and then of course linebackers as well um I think will will factor into this I think that’s why you saw the bills and have seen the bills add a lot to their linebacker depth it’s not just the attrition that they had last year and having to call AJ Klein from a family vacation to play a linebacker in the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs you know I think it’s not just hedging their dep from a traditional standpoint but you’re going to want these players for these coverage units um because tackling in space disengaging from blocks winning in tight SP spaces that’s what linebackers do it’s very much like you’re creating a box play here so Dion Jones Nicholas Moro Edan Osio as a draft pick Dorian Williams bayen Spectre these guys are going to be important for their role with this I think tight ends and running backs um are going to help you a ton in the blocking and covering of these kickoffs and so I think where it really kind of hurts the guys on special teams is probably your wide receivers um and some of your defensive backs now if they have size I think it will help them like I mentioned mck Hollands Chase Claypool those are attractive wide receivers Andy Isabella KJ hamler that’s probably goingon to hurt players like that and their in their path to the roster because they’re not as a depth receiver they’re not going to have the same appeal uh blocking and tackling on these kickoffs but then you think about from defensive backs like maybe it doesn’t help a cam Lewis it’s probably it’s probably hurts a cam Lewis but maybe a CA a Cole Bishop a d Delaney those types of players they become more attractive under these new rules so there’s a lot there’s just a lot to consider with how this is different what happened with the XFL the kickers the returners the blocking the covering it’s there’s so much there and it’s it’s going to have a a material impact on not just the bills but the rest of the NFL and I’m very fascinated to see how um this does ultimately impact things but this was my opportunity to kind of speculate and share how I think this is going to play out and what variables matter so I hope that you enjoyed this I hope that this was the conversation that so many of you requested and um it’s obviously we’re guessing right now and it’ll it’ll be fluid and it’ll change a lot but it’s going to be a big Conversation Piece for us All Season as this actually impacts the results of Buffalo Bills football game so hopefully this positioned you to uh be ready for all of that all right folks that’s going to do it for us here today on the podcast I certainly hope that you enjoy it I hope that you come back I hope that you will subscribe it’d be awesome if you took us second a rate review and share the podcast have a great rest of your day go bills and I look forward to catching up with you again tomorrow

The NFL has adopted a massive change to the kickoff rules and it will have a significant impact on the Buffalo Bills and the rest of the league. What are the rules? How do they impact roster decisions and strategy? What does it mean for kickers and returners? What happened in the XFL? On today’s episode, Host Joe Marino breaks down everything surrounding the rule changes and how they impact the Buffalo Bills! The show is focused on the Buffalo Bills, Matthew Smiley, Kickoff Rule, Josh Allen, Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, Curtis Samuel, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir, Tyler Bass, Sam Martin, Damar Hamlin, Cole Bishop, Deion Jones, Nicholas Morrow, Dorian Williams, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Mike Edwards, Reggie Gilliam, Quintin Morris, Mack Hollins, Zach Davidson, Tre McKitty, Casey Toohill, Kingsley Jonathan, Javon Solomon, Dalton Kincaid, Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, Von MIller and more!

SUMMER SPORTS ARTICLE: https://sumersports.com/the-zone/the-new-nfl-kickoff-rule-xfl-kickoff-study/

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