Detroit Tigers First Half Breakdown + Second Half Expectations

Detroit Tigers First Half Breakdown + Second Half Expectations

well the All-Star break is officially here we’re going to talk about the tiger season up to this point as well as what we can expect the rest of the way all today un locked on Tigers you are locked on Tigers your daily Detroit Tigers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day what is up everybody welome welcome back to another edition of lock on Tigers I’m of course your host Scott Bentley today is Wednesday July 17th 2024 thank you so much for making lock on Tigers your first listen every single day we are free and available wherever you get your podcast including YouTube part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day this episode of lockdown Tigers is brought to you by prize picks the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to prize.com lockon MLB and use code all lowercase lockon MLB for a first deposit match up to $100 welcome in welcome all everybody happy Wednesday to everybody uh we are going to talk about the first half quote unquote it’s not actually the exact halfway point in the season but it is usually uh the the point in the year that everyone looks at as you know the halfway mark and you kind of reather you take a week off from playing ball and you kind of assess where your team is at how the first half of this season went and how the rest of the way will look so that’s what we’re going to do today I think we have uh again we have most of the week off here it’s a good opportunity for us to really slow down and actually have some big picture conversations about uh really every aspect of this team and then obviously what to expect in the second half the trade deadline is going to be a huge talking point we’ll talk plenty about that today uh and we will have an entire like shows dedicated to the trade deadline as we get further along in July as well so the tigers are 47 and 50 that makes them three games under 500 going into or at rather I mean the All-Star game was last night we’re in the the latter half of the All-Star break obviously um but they are three games under 500 heading into the second half uh of the Season or the post Allstar break part of the Season my pre-season win projection was 84 wins they are obviously not on Pace to obtain that they are on Pace obviously to be sub 500 so we’re gonna actually talk about this like we do a game right like on any given day we do what went right and what went wrong we’re going to do that just for the first half again quote unquote and and second half of the Season here okay so because I really feel like that’s that is like so much has gone well and and and so much if not more has gone poorly I I think that’s kind of the the best way to decipher we’ll say the first half of the Season here so the biggest thing that went right I think is a is a collective group of this team and that is the starting pitching the Tigers go into the All-Star break with the 11th best starting pitching erra in baseball which doesn’t sound like uber fantastic that doesn’t sound oh my goodness this is one of the best rotations in baseball but two other stats I’m going to throw at you uh starting pitching FIP okay so fiing independent pitching it’s a stat that tries to help predict what an erra quote unquote should be now there’s several stats like stats rather like that uh xfip is one uh there is uh Sierra there there’s a lot of other projective quote unquote stats but tries to kind of sift through and look at okay what is uh not I don’t even like saying what it should be but just rather you know if if uh starting pitcher has maybe been a little bit unlucky if you will uh the tigers have the second best FIP from starters in all of baseball and have the fifth highest starting pitching War according to fangraphs war which makes sense because fangraphs War uses FIP rather than ER but regardless that is an indictment on how good the starting pitching has been and if we break down the individuals in that group Jack flarey has uh turned out to be a fantastic win of a free agent signing from this front office and from Scott har haris Jeff Greenberg the like anybody that was involved in that decision that is a an overwhelming success so far Jack FL had an RA of like 61 or 614 something with Baltimore uh last season post trade and so far this year has been legitimately like a fringe Allstar and one of the better starting pitchers in the American League now the injury throws a little bit of a wrench into that and makes it uh a little bit more disappointing and certainly throws a wrench into his value at the trade deadline which we’ll talk about again when we kind of talk about the second half of the Season later on in the show but so far in the first half Jack flarity has been stellar and has absolutely you know fed London neeves who we give credit to so so often deserve so so much credit for Jack flare and how his season has gone as well ree Olen has been fantastic too uh he had like a three or four start kind of Hiccup there in May and outside of that he has been absolutely fantastic we still talk about the fact that one of the reasons I’m super excited about ree sson is that not only just how well he’s pitched but the fact that I think there’s still actually Room to Grow I still think there’s more in the tank and and there’s an even higher ceiling than we’ve even seen but this was a guy that I mean a year and a half ago people were talking about Bullpen potential right he’s got a really good slider he’s got a a pretty hard fast ball if you move to the pen you can even get that to be higher velocity we’ll see him in the pen and he could be a really good reliever but like he’s probably that and now he’s a fixture in this starting rotation a and in spring training it wasn’t even a guarantee that he made the team out of Camp right and he has been so so good so that is another overwhelming success this season and you can really outside of May kind of just say the starting pitching as a whole has been a huge asset for this team now on the offensive side of the ball it’s a lot different uh and that is because the offense has not been very good but if we’re talking about players that have impressed on the offensive side of the ball I think Riley green is where you have to start um in we talk about it all the time you just remove the month of May or or you put you know a hand on your computer over his ma stats you go wow this is one of the best players in baseball and again I reiterate all the time you can’t do that they play 162 games you have to take that entire thing in as a sample but uh he has been absolutely phenomenal and the reason why I have optimism that that is just a blip in the radar is because he’s been really good after it and was really good before most of May when he struggled so I I I think that’s more of a reflection of the type of player he is than the month of May is regardless he has been Stellar this year he is an All-Star this year and you know in the in the depths of the rebuild right in 2019 and 2020 in 2022 the big overarching reoccurring conversation was if we can just wait until this y these young players in this young core that we have brewing in the minors comes up were we gonna be okay and there’s still a long way to go before we’re deemed quote unquote okay and before this organization is like wow we made it right this is still an under 500 baseball team but seeing scoble and and uh and green specifically homegrown Talent drafted by the organization developed by the organization come through and be All-Star Cal players at such a young age so early on in their careers is beautiful okay uh Colt Keith I’m gonna put on this side of things and maybe that’s recency bias and maybe that’s just bias of uh you know like following this kid since draft night and always being really really high on him but um I I think that it’s it’s super fair I think if you’re to decide you know which side of the aisle to put him on what went right or what went wrong currently I think he’s it’s overwhelming uh that he is a part of what has gone right for the Detroit Tigers so far in 2024 we’ll talk a little bit about why we’ll talk about obviously the hot streak lately then we’ll get into a few more players before we talk about what has gone wrong for the team so far this season and we will do all of that right after this got to talk to you all today about our friends over at supplyhouse get supplies from the site that’s made for the skilled trade supplyhouse.com supplyhouse.com is the reliable way to order Plumbing HVAC and electrical products online their easy to use website is packed with helpful resources and the latest product info to help you get the job done right shop a complete inventory of over 200,000 parts from over 400 top brands and get your order delivered right to your door with fast shipping from coast to coast if you need help with an order get expert support and Industry leading service from the friendliest folk in the 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actually a 100 times your money you can turn $10 into a th that is 100 timesing your money with as little as four correct picks looking at starting pitching strikeouts total bases for hitters so much more here and in the second half of the Season there is going to be so much more so get in on all the action today over at prize pick download the app today use code lockon MLB for a first deposit match up to $100 again that’s code lockon MLB for a first deposit match up to $100 pick more pick less it’s that easy all right everybody welcome back here segment two of locked on Tigers appreciate youall greatly for tuning in making us your first listen every single day shout out to the every dayers that do tune in every day we will be back of course tomorrow uh we’re going to recap the rest of the draft uh I figured rounds three through 20 are probably a lot less uh intriguing to people as the uh this conversation and as yesterday’s conversation uh so we are going to save that for tomorrow and then we’ll preview the weekend Series against the Blue Jays tomorrow as well we’re GNA talk about the second half today so let’s get back into it also be sure to check out lockdown sports today you can subscribe for free uh 247 streaming Channel over on YouTube or check it out for free in the Amazon Fire TV channels app though talking about Colt Keith before the break uh I think it’s really fair to put him on the side of things that went right in the first half and obviously got off to a really slow start but but since you know it’s not just oh in the last you know two weeks he’s been really good if you look at his numbers since the first week of May he’s been a really good like well above average League hitter well above League average hitter rather and the thing that has catapulted in him into an either can I talk goodness uh the thing that has catapulted him into another level even is the last two or three weeks but since the beginning of may he has been a well above League average hitter and I think that there are we talk about all the time I don’t have to break down the mechanics and what I’m still looking for ETC we talk about that all the time but just in general seeing him really come into his own was a huge part of the Tigers plan this season and seeing that actually come to fruition has been good and shocker not that it’s all onone player but not surprising to anyone Colt Keith has been hitting a lot better lately and the Tigers have been playing a lot better lately okay and again it’s not only player Riley Green’s been you know hitting a lot better than he was a lot of the players are um but that do not get it twisted that’s not for nothing either Carson Kelly you know we were talking about whether you know last winter it even made sense for the Tigers to pick up his team option and and that there was a debate there because he hit so poorly at the end of last season and so for him to come in be a good solid well above solid actually defensive catcher for this ball Club as well as being a legitim like one of the better hitters on the team and like that’s not saying much because this team is still not very good offensively but he has earned that middle of the lineup type of presence that he has been getting especially against lefties but really I mean period Jake Rogers hasn’t been hitting well all season certainly not what we saw from him last year so yeah you know I think Carson Kelly’s been a big success story for this front office as well and then we’re gonna end on WIIL Perez who is a guy that I don’t want to let Reese bias or or just time passing let go of the storyline that is WIIL Perez this dude was not on anybody’s radar to be legitimate a legitimate Difference Maker at the major league level this year nobody in the media was talking about oh like watch out for wi seal Perez to be an everyday starter and then be have an Ops in the 700s and be like a solid League average hitter for this team nobody and the fact that he carved out a roll for himself and has stuck and will continue to stick he will be here throughout the end of the season and he deserves it I think is so impressive even when he came up and got off to the hot start I was like okay this will fade and then he’ll go back down into the miners in a month or two he just has continued to hit bat to ball skills he doesn’t strike out really really professional hitter with a lot of confidence at the plate I love watching him take ABS I’m a huge fan of wi seal Perez and the only thing that can add to his value at this point is if it turns out he can play the infield a little bit better than he initially showed over the last two years that would be the only thing that could really raise his value but as it stands right now uh wiel Perez absolutely a success story so far this season so let’s then flip to what has gone wrong for the tigers um the bullpen is where I actually want to start the last two years the bullpen has been really solid this year it hasn’t they’re 23rd in fangraphs war out of the bullpen from relievers this year they are 18th in bullpen erra and 2 second in bullpen strikeout rate um that last one is almost the one I care the most about you cannot in today’s day and age of baseball you cannot have a successful Bullpen without having Swig and Miss stuff you can’t um there are two high leverage of situations for teams to just go out there and be like hey you know get get put the the bat on the ball here get a ground ball here and like you’ll always take a ground ball if the ball is hit into play I’m not saying ground balls are bad obviously kind of the ideal situation if you are going to put the bat on the ball but there are objectively high leverage situations where you need a strikeout and the Tigers don’t have anybody that can do that not one person right Andrew chaen higher than the rest of the team Alex Foo higher than than a lot of players especially with that slider specifically but like on on a consistent basis you don’t have anybody that you’re just going to go okay we need a strike out here there’s a man on Third and one out late in a game we need a strike out here who are we going to huge issue and it’s really disappointing given where the bullpen has been at the last couple of years how much they’ve struggled this season and that’s even with like an ungodly month of April thrown in there right they were the best bullpen in baseball in April and they’re still in the bottom you know 10ish in most stats really a testament to how much they have struggled since the beginning of May um offensively I mean we can just talk about the offense in general um it almost seems like I’m sure that my what has gone wrong is going to be short a shorter list than what has gone right that’s not the case it’s just it’s way the things that have gone wrong are way more generalized the offense has gone wrong and now granted in the month of July they’ve been a lot better and that is something that is absolutely worth pointing out and is a reason why a lot of people are starting to like have fun and have hope again and that’s awesome don’t let me re on your parade you be a fan however you want to be a fan that’s always been a big thing of mine but like through this season right a Hu much bigger sample size than 14 games in July this season they are still a bottom seven offense in pretty much every step right team Ops bottom 10 WRC plus bottom of the League War bottom of the league like they are they are in that that bottom six seven eight range in a lot of Team offensive categories and that’s just not going to cut it that that’s just not a a a a playoff team that’s not someone of h a team of really high caliber and we can point to a lot of individuals within that conversation Mark Hannah has been a a really big disappointment unfortunately and that’s a signing that or a trade rather I guess that I was pretty high on and that I liked getting I I thought that that was a pretty Savvy move to to get him but I think it’s more now of a testament to what the Brewers knew and that we didn’t right he’s an on-based machine as Scott Harris said going into the season but unfortunately the bat speed I think has gone down a little bit but even if that’s not like he just can’t hit velocity really he’s just getting bullied a lot and there’s a ton of weak contact he has not been squaring up baseballs his Ops since early May is in the 500s it’s not good a and uh for a guy who A was really good in April but B was supposed to be like one of the bigger Acquisitions of this team that’s not not great and that’s why the offense has struggled and that’s why we said in the winter for as much as I liked the signing or or I keep saying signing uh for as much as I liked the trade there’s no way that could be your biggest move offensively of the off season and it might have been not good um Parker Meadows obviously another disappointing season so far now I liked the changes I saw from him in the uh in the what three games he played after coming back from the injured or after coming back from uh Toledo and then getting put on the injured list um so we’ll see if he’s made adjustments and he is better but this was a guy that everybody was talking about myself included look if he can even be a League average hitter he’s going to be like a three or four War center fielder he’s going to be so valuable on the base paths and defensively this team is just different when Parker Meadows is good and I think that uh getting him right is is a huge talking point for the second half and obviously the first half and then Kaya not really too much needs to be said obviously was really good in the bullpen in the one outing we’ve seen him out of the pen uh earlier or over the weekend rather um but unfortunately has just been a catastrophic signing and the two years for him makes it even more of a gut punch so they’re goingon to have to navigate their way through that let’s talk about the big one because there’s one very clear I think very comfortably the biggest uh M if you will on the side of things of what went wrong we will talk about him and wrap up that conversation right after this got to talk to you today about our friends over at eBay Motors passion drive and patience is the formula for winning championships and also what keeps you ride or die alive eBay Motors is everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to Peak Performance super chargers roof racks exhaust kits LED headlights and more whether in speed power or style eBay Motors has got you covered with over 122 million parts for your number one ride or die you’ll always find exactly what you’re looking for and with eBay guaranteed fit your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or your money back because with eBay Motors you’re burning rubber not cash with all the parts you need and all the prices you want it’s easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins so keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com eligible items only exclusions apply eBay guaranteed fit is only available to us customers all right everybody welcome back here third and final segment of lockdown Tigers appreciate youall for tuning in as always so let’s get down to it all right the the biggest uh member the the the leader of this conversation uh when we’re talking about for the Detroit Tigers Major League team what has gone wrong so far this season is very clearly and obviously Spencer torlon um we have talked about him at length so far this season we’ve talked about why he got sent down we’ve talked about the mechanics the mechanics he he will or won’t change etc etc the fact of the matter is before we get into what I want to see from this team in the second half this team is wildly different if Spencer Tolson is even close to what he did in the second half of last season wildly different not kind of different not oh we’re probably still under 500 like and I’m not pinning an entire season on one player right we’ve I just went through a a a laundry list of players and reasons as to why you know the the first half didn’t go as a lot of people expected maybe going into the season okay this is not just uh I’m not trying to say the season is over because of Tolson that that’s ridiculous but when we’re talking about the the biggest reasons and the the uh the demotions that carried the most weight and the players that struggled that affected the offense the most there is no denying that Spencer tolson’s lack of production this season is toward the top of the list and he hasn’t been tearing it up in Toledo either which is wildly concerning and when we talk about the future of torque uh look man first basemen are easy to get in the off season and I just can’t imagine that the plan going forward after what we’ve seen this year is going to be Tolson is is penned in right with Sharpie and permanent Inc going to be the first baseman of the future of this team now we’ll have much more of a breakdown as the season goes along we’ll see if he comes back up we’ll talk about it a ton in the winter right I’m not declaring anything today I it’s just I think it’s it’s again with with how easy it is to find good hitting first basem that are better than him defensively I I have a really hard time believing the tigers are like you know what the plan is still torque going forward no matter what that’s all the the confidence of him being the first baseman of The Future Has plummeted and and deservedly so unfortunately so Tolson being a 30 home run hitter this year even if he doesn’t take a step forward even if he just is what he was last year again this season is so wild different so that is is obviously one of the biggest conversations from the first half let’s talk second half okay um things that I want to see from the Tigers in the second half a Parker Meadows back and healthy that’s one of my biggest things this team like I said earlier is so unbelievably different if he is even a below League average hitter like he doesn’t even need to have an 100 Ops plus he doesn’t even to have an Ops in the 700s he’s a 650 a 680 Ops hitter that can run into some homers and and and draw some walks he he’s GNA be one of the more valuable players on the team and because that’s how good he is defensively he had a batting average below a 100 and was a positive War player at one point I cannot under sell or oversell rather somebody corrected me on that the other day on Twitter thank you um you cannot oversell his defense okay so he’s a huge Factor here in the second half I want to see him healthy and back out there in general injuries right Carrie Carpenter uh is something that I want to see in the second half now that’s more of just like up to the the his his body and how it heals right that’s not really anything he can do necessarily to drive that but I would love to see Carrie Carpenter healthy again as well he’s certainly when healthy was part of the side of things that went right was the best hitter on this team when he was healthy um post trade deadline if you are out of it if you’re out of contention I actually want the promise to be fulfilled of earmarking at bats for younger players and I think that you have an opportunity to do that for two whole months after the trade deadline this season and that is a a big expectation of mine deadline expectations are the Talk of the Town as we get closer and closer like I said we’re going to have whole episodes dedicated to the trade deadline uh all the rumors that as we get closer to the deadline potential moves etc etc we we will break this down so much more in depth we’re an everyday show here okay um but uh I I want to start the conversation now because we haven’t talked about it too terribly much and I want to kick this off um Jack flarity is absolutely going to be on the trade market and I think he’s going to be traded um the back injury throws a huge wrench into everything like I said um I Cody stavenhagen and Kieran steckley um they have a great show for the athletic turning the corner and they talked in depth about it somebody pointed out to me the other day that uh you know the whole situation with Flare and I think Cody’s insight there was really really insightful his Insight was insightful was really good uh and just kind of explaining and breaking down like all of the the complications with this situation the back injury really just kills the momentum on this I still think they have to trade him I I I would be shocked if they didn’t um barring a run by the team we’ll talk about that in a second but as it stands right now I still expect flarity to get moved and uh I don’t think the tigers are going to have too many reservations about that given the injury history with the back it’s always been a thing with him really and uh how that’s continued to be a thing this year Carson Kelly another one you picked up a team option on him and uh and you might be able to actually get something for him I think that they’re going to take that value forv value tradeoff 10 times out of 10 I expect Carson Kelly to get moved anyone else small you know expiring deal if there’s a market for Mark Hannah maybe then I guess you would try to do that if there’s a market for Gio or shella maybe again can’t imagine there’s a huge market for those two guys can’t imagine they’re going to be centerpieces of deals but I don’t know best case scenario maybe you can try something anybody in the bullpen is going to be available as well I don’t think there’s really anybody that’s Untouchable fully included into that um the big conversation we don’t have to be around the bush anymore is DK scoo um and I I let’s let’s let’s start this this conversation now and then again we’ll we’ll continue it as we get closer and closer to the deadline um I am of the opinion that you should not trade trik scoel now there’s a lot of nuance in this conversation though um I I would not go out and shop T scoble and go we have to move this guy if we want to be good if you are the front office of a baseball team and you have the best pitcher in baseball another All-Star young hitter and have been around for two drafts now your farm system was ranked in the borderline top five in baseball going into the season it’s gone down a little bit since but at one point um and you have added next to nothing of legitimate substance or part of the longterm core we’ll say to the major league team since taking over into you know going on on year soon you know down the road this winter I I just I I find it really hard to believe that it would be looked at fondly if you somehow ter SCH has two years of control after this one I you’re probably not a super super good front office if you can’t build with everything I just laid out a winning team around the best pitcher in baseball in three years time if we’re including this year plus the next two years that’s probably on you and not on the organization as a front office so that is where I stand I I think you have the this guy isn’t just good he is the best picture in baseball now the Nuance to this conversation comes with the alternative which is the like quote unquote God offer right if you just get the most ridiculous ludicrous the orios are going to give you you know uh they’re going to give you holiday I almost said Ethan holiday they’re going to give you Jackson holiday and and five other of their top prospects for TK scoble then you know what you’re gonna have to accept it right I don’t believe in anyone being Untouchable in trades that’s not a concept I subscribe to right so if you’re if you’re gonna get mad at at my opinion there and be like oh well what if what if Well yeah if you say what if and it’s good enough then yeah yet again you kind of have to and and there are already rumors that the Dodgers and the Orioles are putting together packages for TK scoel it’s going to be thrown out there it’s going to be a conversation where I stand is just if it’s anything less than the most UN like you can’t reject this because you would be the stupidest person ever to reject it offer then you keep the best starting pitcher in the game of baseball and you actually build around him because you’re trying to win baseball games we will go way more in depth on that conversation as we get closer and closer to the deadline but I did want to throw that out there it is completely on the front office’s shoulder if you take what is this this is year two and ter SCH has two more years of control left if you can’t build an above 500 team nonetheless a really good team with Riley green and TK scoble on your baseball team going forward that’s on you that’s plenty of time and two years into the Scott Harris era his biggest Major League acquisition has been Matt verling Major League acquisition okay so that’s where I stand and that’s not like anti or Pro Scott Harris really in either Direction that’s just the the two paths that I see looking at head when it comes to to trade or to not to trade Terk scoel okay um like I said we’ll talk about that a lot more as far as anything else I’m expecting this uh in the second half post deadline this year or post All-Star break rather this year September call-ups would love to see Jackson joob don’t really expect it but would love to I was I was expecting it going into the season but the injury kind of threw a wrench in that a little bit and then jaay young I think kind of has to I I I would be stunned if they made the same quote unquote mistake twice and didn’t give J young an opportunity this year and instead held him out for next year and didn’t let him takes his take his lumps this season like they didn’t do with Malloy and Colt Keith so I I kind of expect young to be up that being said his defense has apparently not been very good um look I would love to watch and we’ll end on this I would love to watch this team go on a Rong a Rong so used to saying jaay Young’s name I would love to watch this team go on a run and prove me and a lot of other people wrong please do I am begging to root for a good baseball team I am on on uh the other side of 25 now right I’m in I’m in my mid 20s and I have not seen this team go over 500 since the year that I transitioned from a freshman or a senior in high school to a freshman in college now I’m like closer to 30 than 20 that’s how long it’s been okay I I am begging and from a work perspective I’ve been here three years I have not covered a good baseball team once I would love to make the second half of the summer fun but my expectations are lower at this point um if I was to redo my expectations that I had going into opening day they would not be 84 wins um I I fully expect them to trade flarity I expect them to trade Carson Kelly and any other veteran of expiring deals that have remote value and and look towards the winter and if my expectations of what this team are and what I think this team is are accurate which is not a playoff team then I think that it’s the right thing to do to trade players as well that all being said Win please win make the deadline uncomfortable like we talked about yesterday make me eat my words make just win keep winning make the trade deadline make that spicy make I want the Tigers to go into the deadline and me to be legitimately nervous about stating my opinion of the deadline because I’m afraid that people are going to be like oh well like you how could you say that I want them to to buy and and like go on a run and win we’ve been winning a lot lately or vice versa right like I I want to make it as uncomfortable for this front office as humanly possible and the only way that happens is to just win baby thanks for making lock on Tigers your first listen every single day shout out to every dayers that do tune in every day backtack longer episodes I apologize we’ll try to get back uh closer to 30 here tomorrow uh we’ll be back tomorrow talking about the rest of the draft and previewing the weekend series ahead alrighty um well actually we’ll do that Friday so we’ll we we still have a couple of days we’ll be good we’ll plenty of content here peace and love going to therapies dope I’ll catch you all tomorrow baby go tigas

Today we discuss the Detroit Tigers first half of the season and breakdown the ups and downs so far. We also talk about the future of 2024 and what to expect going forward.

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