Cavs Free Agent Isaac Okoro: Sign-and-trade, re-sign, qualifying offer?

Good breakdown of the Okoro situation: https://hoopshype.com/lists/cavaliers-free-agent-isaac-okoro-sign-and-trade-re-sign-or-sign-qualifying-offer/

Mike Scotto is generally well respected FWIW. Really good rundown of the pickle the Cavs seem to be in currently:

Cleveland has full Bird Rights on Okoro and values his defense and improved 3-point shooting as a complement to the high-scoring backcourt duo of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. 
Okoro can decide to bet on himself and sign his one-year, $11.83 million qualifying offer, which would give him a no-trade clause for the upcoming season and allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025. 

However, the Cavaliers are close to the luxury tax threshold entering the upcoming season – and with Mitchell and Evan Mobley starting new contract extensions and Jarrett Allen entering the final year of his contract during the 2025-26 season – it’s unclear whether the Cavaliers are willing to go into the luxury tax for the 2024-25 season with the team expected to be above the luxury threshold starting in 2025-26. 

Assuming Cleveland wants to avoid the luxury tax this upcoming season and Okoro stays, it most likely means that Caris LeVert or Georges Niang would have to be traded. LeVert is entering the final season of his contract worth $16.6 million and is a favorite of new head coach Kenny Atkinson. Niang, who’s owed $16.7 million through the next two seasons, is a close friend of Mitchell, which is worth noting.

The Cavaliers could also sign the 23-year-old wing to a multi-year deal now and then use him as a trade chip during the season to remain below the luxury tax threshold. 

If Okoro signs the qualifying offer, Cleveland moves above the luxury tax threshold. The Cavaliers would have to try and trade Okoro or another player to get below the threshold if that’s Cleveland’s goal.

Rival NBA teams believe the Cavaliers would match an offer sheet up to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception range.

From Cleveland’s perspective, Okoro can earn roughly $10 million annually from the Cavaliers for some form of financial security in a multi-year deal while trying to avoid the luxury tax threshold. Cleveland could start Okoro’s salary below $10 million and not have to trade any of their players while ducking the luxury tax.

Ultimately, Cleveland can trade Okoro now and get value in return for him, agree to terms on a long-term deal, or Okoro can take the qualifying offer and leave next summer for nothing in return.

With looming pay raises for Mitchell and Mobley, along with Allen entering the final year of his contract during the 2025-26 season and Darius Garland under contract for the next four seasons, it’s clear the Cavaliers will have to make roster changes elsewhere to balance their salary cap books for the future while navigating the luxury tax.  

If Cleveland ultimately declines the sign-and-trade scenarios, it shows they still value Okoro.

The worst-case scenario for Cleveland would be Okoro signing the one-year qualifying offer and leaving for nothing in the summer of 2025 because he has value in sign-and-trade scenarios now. 

With that in mind, expect the Cavaliers to either execute one of the sign-and-trade scenarios involving Okoro or re-sign him.