It's obviously early with this & things can change, but I'm assuming the Heat have made their major moves – at least ones that involve their starting level guys. So, I just wanted to go through who should start & looking a lot of the lineup data
Before anything else, the biggest question about their starting 5 is simply health. Who starts will depend who actually is healthy enough. These are the number of starting fives and their most common one in the last 5 years:
- 2024: 35 & Rozier/Duncan/Butler/Jovic/Bam in 14 games
- 2023: 26 & Lowry/Herro/Butler/Caleb/Bam in 21 games
- 2022: 23 & Lowry/Duncan/Butler/PJ/Bam in 30 games
- 2021: 26 & Nunn/Duncan/Butler/Olynyk/Bam in 16 games
- 2020: 15 & Nunn/Robinson/Butler/Leonard/Bam in 38 games
This was the most starting 5s that they had and it's 9 more than their previous high. That just can't happen. If they're unhealthy again, I don't think it matters as much because you can only do so much with no continuity or chemistry.
Assuming they're healthy, there should be players locked:
Terry Rozier, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo
The last spot is up for grabs & it's either Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro. I believe it should be Duncan, as he fits exactly what they need, but in the end, I do think Herro will take that spot again being the starter the last three seasons.
I don't think there's anyone else with the case to start over another. I've seen takes for Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaqeuz Jr, or Haywood Highsmith. I just don't see it. Whether it's too early, bad fit, or taking a player that is effective in a role, I don't see a good enough reason to have anyone else at this point.
Let's look at the potential starting 5 of Rozier, Herro, Butler, Jovic, Bam. Unfortunately, there aren't any lineup data for those 5 because they played 0 minutes. Because the sample size is so small, you have to be cautious with the numbers & see if there are any trends to pick up on, rather than take the numbers as face value & make clear conclusions for them, but instead see how things could work if this or that happened. It's doing a lot of predicting in a way.
So, let's just look at it without Jovic at first to get the overall picture & see how he'll fit after
The 4 without Jovic had a -1.3 net rating in 118 minutes with a 117.9 ORTG & 119.2 DRTG
Player stats in those 118 minutes
A couple of things stand out
- Butler has the lowest usage out of those 4 with 19.1%
- Butler still lead them in pts per 100 because of his absurd efficiency with 65.2% eFG & 71.7% TS
- Herro's 60.7% 3pt rate is very encouraging & taking 14.2 3s per 100
- Team had 14% of their shots at the rim – only 13 shots per 100
- Their most common shot was in the short mid-range(4-14ft) where they shot 47.5%
- They did also have a corner frequency of 16%
The first point is the glaring one. If this is or any starting lineup you throw out, BUTLER NEEDS TO PLAY LIKE THE BEST PLAYER!
What team's best player do you think would have a lower usage than Tim Hardaway Jr, Coby White, Austin Reaves, or Josh Giddey? That is the first & most important thing that sets everything else in motion. Without that, nothing else honestly will matter. The team needs Butler to have at least a 25% usage & there's no going around that.
Once that happens, the next stat is the most encouraging one & that's Herro's very high 3pt rate. Herro's shot diet is an issue. Him having a low C&S 3pt frequency is a big issue too. To fit with the starters, especially with Rozier & Butler, someone has to be the off-ball shooter & in this case it has to be Herro. His 3pt attempts with that group would rank 5th in the league! That's exactly what the group needs & if that's the case from him, I can see the fit.
The reason for that is Rozier. He's similar in a lot of ways to Herro & I don't think you can start both if either one doesn't take that role. If both are looking to be themselves with needing the ball in their hands + settling for tough jumpers, then it won't work. That's why I'm still kind of against this backcourt. This is where everything hinges on.
When it comes to inserting Jovic here, he'd be replacing Caleb/Haywood that was in the lineup. I love that. I don't think there's a better fit. There's zero issue with the frontcourt. Jovic is 6'11 who has been upping his volume to over 9 per 100 & has been knocking them down. That is everything you'd need on offense to fit. & Defensively, he has shown a lot of promise, growth & improvement to make this feasible
Bam. Bam is just Bam. He'll fit with anyone & I don't see his role changing with any different starting lineup(outside of Ware, which we're 100% not doing lol).
Their DRTG feels like an issue but then they did brush that up later. I think this is one of the things that it was likely a blip and a poor stretch. Though there are still concerns there, especially with a small backcourt, but aye, they didn't have that much better before.
This starting lineup can work and there is potential but only if all of the pieces fall into place, such as Butler taking the reigns, Rozier providing the secondary ball handling/creation + adjusting his shot diet & Herro embracing that off-ball role. That's when it could work out
That's the lineup that I think will most likely happen.
I'd still go with Duncan over Herro, mainly because that's a much better fit. A trio of Duncan/Butler/Bam has worked better through these 5 years than with Herro.
Why do we need Herro to adapt & completely change his game, one that may not suit him as well, to a player that we'd need when we ALREADY HAVE that player in Duncan, who doesn't need to adapt!
The lineup data for that 5 is worse where they had a -6.3 net in 181 minutes with a 111.7 ORTG & 118.0 DRTG:
But the reasons for that are glaring again. It's Butler having a very low usage & being less efficient. It's Bam leading the team in usage AND only having 52.5% TS. That's not going to work out well. But again, there are signs of potential if Butler plays better.
One is them having a higher rim rate with 25% of their shots there. It's not relying on those paint shots. It's them still having 13% of their shots in the corner. It's Duncan and Jovic being efficient in their roles.
So, these are the 2 potential starting lineups that I could see – leaning into the Herro one with being most likely
If you want to check out the full piece with more lineup data & more thoughts on the rotation, check it out here
12 comments
Not Herro
I honestly think they should make a bigger shift:
Terry/Duncan/Jimmy/Haywood/Bam
Bench: JRich/Herro/Jaime/Jovic/Ware
Haywood and Duncan as starters allows them to perform their roles more when necessary; while Herro Jaime and Jovic off the bench allows them to shine a bit more when the stars are off.
Just my opinion tho
Nice post – but for me it’s pretty simple.
Rozier, Butler, and Bam are starting.
All things being equal – Heat are better starting Duncan with Herro as sixth man leading the second unit, but with their contracts and the need to boost Herro’s trade value in case a star shakes free, Herro has to start.
So the only question is the frontcourt pairing with Bam and there’s no way Ware just beats out Jovic as a rookie to start the year.
The starting lineup is Rozier, Herro, Butler, Jovic, and Bam and I’m sure Spo will give enough minutes to Ware with Bam at the four to see if it works. If it does that could be the starting lineup by the break.
yall know the answer lol
Bam was supposed to have turned into a better offensive player by now. Bam and Herro stagnating is more damaging to this team than Jimmy having a lower usage rate.
Not fucking herro
Not Niko
Whoever the coaching staff decides. That’s how this works.
Again? lol
We’ve been sorely lacking rim protection since Whiteside. I’m all for Ware starting asap.
It will be Terry, Tyler, Jimmy, Jovic, Bam but it might change to Terry, Duncan, Jimmy, Bam, Ware if Bam at the 4 and Herro off the bench work out.
No matter how many of these post we see Rozier/Herro/Jimmy/Jovic/Bam will be the starting lineup. We didn’t get to see it last year so Spo will see how it works and make changes if needed after a decent sample size.
Rozier/Duncan/Jimmy/Jovic/Bam was the most used lineup last year but had a very bad net rating so I doubt he goes back to that. Perhaps the move would be to go with Jaime or Highsmith if Rozier and Herro don’t work but have to see if it will work first