[BHN] – Will Tage Thompson Have a Bounce Back Season for Sabres?
August 2, 2024
[BHN] – Will Tage Thompson Have a Bounce Back Season for Sabres?
12 comments
The 2023-2024 season was tough for Tage Thompson, who’s looking to bounce back after posting his lowest point total since breaking out from a 14-point 2020-2021 season. The 6’6″ Buffalo Sabres center is as skilled of a player as you’ll find in the NHL, suggesting that last season was a fluke by eye-test standards. The question is whether the numbers support the idea that Thompson can return to the player the Sabres have come to expect.
Thompson managed 29 goals and 56 points in 71 games in an injury-riddled season. That’s 0.79 points per game and a fraction of his 94-point total from 2022-2023. Even before missing games due to injury, Buffalo’s top center started slow. He had 12 points in his first 16 games, 0.75 points per game.
### Thompson Injuries
Thompson then missed nine games after an early exit in a game against the Boston Bruins on November 14th, 2023. His scoring pace fell again after returning in December, managing only 0.7 points per game over the next 10. It’s a far cry from the well-over-point-per-game pace we’re accustomed to seeing from him, as he was continually hampered by the upper-body injury.
Then came a mysterious personal leave of absence announced right before the December 27th matchup against the Bruins, but Thompson returned to the team by the next game. His minutes were limited in two games in January due to an undisclosed injury, but his play started to pick up. He had eight points in six games following his absence, before falling off again with only one point in his next seven.
Tage Thompson would eventually run into another upper-body injury in March that sat him out one game, but as his earlier injury battles faded, his play improved. He averaged 1.05 points per game over his last 20, which equates to an 86-point pace over 82 games.
### Thompson Linemates
Part of the equation affecting Thompson was the addition of JJ Peterka to the top line. Peterka’s stock rose at left wing throughout the season as Jeff Skinner’s dropped. He joined Thompson and Alex Tuch to form a prolific scoring trio on March 21st, giving a 12-game, end-of-season audition for what could be next season’s top line.
Thompson recorded 14 points over those 12 games, including a spectacular four-goal performance at home versus the New Jersey Devils. Besides Peterka, Jason Zucker, Jack Quinn, and Zach Benson are other options to play on Thompson’s left side. None of those players have had much run in the role, giving the big edge to the German speedster.
### Projecting Thompson
So what could Tage Thompson’s output look like next season? He’ll likely top 20 goals for the third straight season, but can he top 30? 40? 50?
As a top-line center, can he get back to 90 points?
We take these questions to the PuckLuck model, which uses three-year weighted averages, player comparisons, and season simulations to project each player’s performance next season. The model also recognizes unusual and drastic drop-offs in production and can relate it to potential lingering injuries.
In Thompson’s case, he was flagged as a possible player fighting through injury. Similar flags were raised regarding Andre Burakovsky and Mikhail Sergachev, who missed significant time throughout the season. The fact that Thompson played 71 games shows he was playing through something, as his early-season upper-body injury was suspected to pertain to his wrist.
### Goals
Thompson’s known for his goal-scoring, but he only managed 29 last season. His nine powerplay games were less than half his previous season’s total.
In looking at similar scoring profiles at even strength, Vladimir Tarasenko and Max Pacioretty, in their prime, are the closest comparables. Remember that Thompson will still be 26 years old at the start of the season, and similar players at that age boosted their even-strength goal totals on average.
Powerplay scoring comps tell the same story, as a prime Tarasenko, a young Tyler Seguin, and a veteran Steven Stamkos fit similar profiles.
After running the simulations, Thompson is projected for a 48-goal pace over an 82-game season, with a ceiling of 52 goals. Given he plays all 82 games, that would be his highest single-season output. He’s projected by the model to play 74 games, however, which equates to 43 goals.
### Assists
The players that fit Thompson’s assist profile around his age range also have historically shown an improvement the next season at even strength. Examples of these players are Pacioretty, Marcus Johansson, Anthony Beauvillier, and Phillip Danault. While you may not think of them quite on Thompson’s level, keep in mind that this is solely regarding the metrics that help predict assist totals.
The season sims display a 45-assist 82-game pace on average, with a ceiling of 48 assists. Again, given that he’s projected for 74 games played, that would equate to 41 assists projected for next season.
### Points
How does a 74-game stat line of 43 goals, 41 assists, and 84 points sound for a bounce-back season? That equals nearly 1.14 points per game and would require 80 games played to return to the 90-point mark.
His ceiling projection is 100 points, with outlier seasons in the simulations where he exceeds that number. That would be quite the return to prominence for the star forward, especially following a 56-point campaign.
Regardless of what went wrong last season, Thompson’s defensive metrics improved. Combine better play without the puck with his puck skills, and Tage Thompson could be back to the number one center the Sabres need.
Yes. He looked great to end the year after he was healthier. Even after getting injured he was getting into prime scoring areas he just couldn’t finish.
I’m confident that he will. Wrist should be more than healed and I think new coaching will reignite as well.
Last season was probably a very solid reflection of his true talent
60-80 points yearly likely ultimately
Underrated that 56 in 71 is still very impressive
His 94 year was almost certainly his one special season that almost all forwards have
Sh% wise he’s at 14% for this career phase and shot just under 12 last season
In his 94 point season his PP goals and assists were double what they were in his other two prime seasons, likely an outlier
>He averaged 1.05 points per game over his last 20, which equates to an 86-point pace over 82 games
Went back and watched some of the games from the end of the season and could visibly notice Thompson and Quinn both looked really energized. Quinn specifically in one of the last home games against Philadelphia. I knew Thompson was improving but I didn’t realize he was doing that good at the time.
I want him to hit 50-60 goals with 50-60 assists please
I want him to hit 50-60 goals with 50-60 assists please
Injuries aside, I think Tage’s production really suffered due to the lack of creativity on the power play. If opposing teams are going to shadow him to take away his one-timer, the coaches should be able to scheme up a way for him to more easily distribute pucks to players with more space.
Yes – and Buffalo WILL make the playoffs.
Absolutely, and now that we’ve acquired actual bottom six players, I like his chances of staying healthy instead of blocking shots on the PK.
12 comments
The 2023-2024 season was tough for Tage Thompson, who’s looking to bounce back after posting his lowest point total since breaking out from a 14-point 2020-2021 season. The 6’6″ Buffalo Sabres center is as skilled of a player as you’ll find in the NHL, suggesting that last season was a fluke by eye-test standards. The question is whether the numbers support the idea that Thompson can return to the player the Sabres have come to expect.
Thompson managed 29 goals and 56 points in 71 games in an injury-riddled season. That’s 0.79 points per game and a fraction of his 94-point total from 2022-2023. Even before missing games due to injury, Buffalo’s top center started slow. He had 12 points in his first 16 games, 0.75 points per game.
### Thompson Injuries
Thompson then missed nine games after an early exit in a game against the Boston Bruins on November 14th, 2023. His scoring pace fell again after returning in December, managing only 0.7 points per game over the next 10. It’s a far cry from the well-over-point-per-game pace we’re accustomed to seeing from him, as he was continually hampered by the upper-body injury.
Then came a mysterious personal leave of absence announced right before the December 27th matchup against the Bruins, but Thompson returned to the team by the next game. His minutes were limited in two games in January due to an undisclosed injury, but his play started to pick up. He had eight points in six games following his absence, before falling off again with only one point in his next seven.
Tage Thompson would eventually run into another upper-body injury in March that sat him out one game, but as his earlier injury battles faded, his play improved. He averaged 1.05 points per game over his last 20, which equates to an 86-point pace over 82 games.
### Thompson Linemates
Part of the equation affecting Thompson was the addition of JJ Peterka to the top line. Peterka’s stock rose at left wing throughout the season as Jeff Skinner’s dropped. He joined Thompson and Alex Tuch to form a prolific scoring trio on March 21st, giving a 12-game, end-of-season audition for what could be next season’s top line.
Thompson recorded 14 points over those 12 games, including a spectacular four-goal performance at home versus the New Jersey Devils. Besides Peterka, Jason Zucker, Jack Quinn, and Zach Benson are other options to play on Thompson’s left side. None of those players have had much run in the role, giving the big edge to the German speedster.
### Projecting Thompson
So what could Tage Thompson’s output look like next season? He’ll likely top 20 goals for the third straight season, but can he top 30? 40? 50?
As a top-line center, can he get back to 90 points?
We take these questions to the PuckLuck model, which uses three-year weighted averages, player comparisons, and season simulations to project each player’s performance next season. The model also recognizes unusual and drastic drop-offs in production and can relate it to potential lingering injuries.
In Thompson’s case, he was flagged as a possible player fighting through injury. Similar flags were raised regarding Andre Burakovsky and Mikhail Sergachev, who missed significant time throughout the season. The fact that Thompson played 71 games shows he was playing through something, as his early-season upper-body injury was suspected to pertain to his wrist.
### Goals
Thompson’s known for his goal-scoring, but he only managed 29 last season. His nine powerplay games were less than half his previous season’s total.
In looking at similar scoring profiles at even strength, Vladimir Tarasenko and Max Pacioretty, in their prime, are the closest comparables. Remember that Thompson will still be 26 years old at the start of the season, and similar players at that age boosted their even-strength goal totals on average.
Powerplay scoring comps tell the same story, as a prime Tarasenko, a young Tyler Seguin, and a veteran Steven Stamkos fit similar profiles.
After running the simulations, Thompson is projected for a 48-goal pace over an 82-game season, with a ceiling of 52 goals. Given he plays all 82 games, that would be his highest single-season output. He’s projected by the model to play 74 games, however, which equates to 43 goals.
### Assists
The players that fit Thompson’s assist profile around his age range also have historically shown an improvement the next season at even strength. Examples of these players are Pacioretty, Marcus Johansson, Anthony Beauvillier, and Phillip Danault. While you may not think of them quite on Thompson’s level, keep in mind that this is solely regarding the metrics that help predict assist totals.
The season sims display a 45-assist 82-game pace on average, with a ceiling of 48 assists. Again, given that he’s projected for 74 games played, that would equate to 41 assists projected for next season.
### Points
How does a 74-game stat line of 43 goals, 41 assists, and 84 points sound for a bounce-back season? That equals nearly 1.14 points per game and would require 80 games played to return to the 90-point mark.
His ceiling projection is 100 points, with outlier seasons in the simulations where he exceeds that number. That would be quite the return to prominence for the star forward, especially following a 56-point campaign.
Regardless of what went wrong last season, Thompson’s defensive metrics improved. Combine better play without the puck with his puck skills, and Tage Thompson could be back to the number one center the Sabres need.
Yes. He looked great to end the year after he was healthier. Even after getting injured he was getting into prime scoring areas he just couldn’t finish.
I’m confident that he will. Wrist should be more than healed and I think new coaching will reignite as well.
Last season was probably a very solid reflection of his true talent
60-80 points yearly likely ultimately
Underrated that 56 in 71 is still very impressive
His 94 year was almost certainly his one special season that almost all forwards have
Sh% wise he’s at 14% for this career phase and shot just under 12 last season
In his 94 point season his PP goals and assists were double what they were in his other two prime seasons, likely an outlier
>He averaged 1.05 points per game over his last 20, which equates to an 86-point pace over 82 games
Went back and watched some of the games from the end of the season and could visibly notice Thompson and Quinn both looked really energized. Quinn specifically in one of the last home games against Philadelphia. I knew Thompson was improving but I didn’t realize he was doing that good at the time.
I want him to hit 50-60 goals with 50-60 assists please
I want him to hit 50-60 goals with 50-60 assists please
Injuries aside, I think Tage’s production really suffered due to the lack of creativity on the power play. If opposing teams are going to shadow him to take away his one-timer, the coaches should be able to scheme up a way for him to more easily distribute pucks to players with more space.
Yes – and Buffalo WILL make the playoffs.
Absolutely, and now that we’ve acquired actual bottom six players, I like his chances of staying healthy instead of blocking shots on the PK.
Fuckin’ better or we’re screwed.