Jeff Passan on Vlad extension “There will not be a first baseman getting a $300+ million contract. Period.”
August 2, 2024
Jeff Passan on Vlad extension “There will not be a first baseman getting a $300+ million contract. Period.”
36 comments
Miggy got 240m like 10 years ago, it’s very possible.
Most 1B aren’t 1B at 25
Vlad is such an outlier though. 1B are often very old when they reach the Majors due to their bat taking a very long time to develop or they end up at 1B after formally failing at other positions. Vlad will be 26 for all of next season and his extension starts with his age 27 season most likely. That will play a big role in it.
*Only 7 1B making more than $20 M AAV…which are also all the 1B making more than Vlad right now too..*
* *1B Bryce Harper – $27.3 M AAV – Signed when he was playing OF.* * *1B Kris Bryant – $26.0 M AAV – Signed when he was playing 3B.* * *1B Paul Goldschmidt: $26.0 M AAV – Signed at Age 32.* * *1B Freddie Freeman: $24.7 M AAV – Signed at Age 32.* * *1B Matt Olson: $21.0 M AAV – Signed at Age 28.* * *1B Pete Alonso: $20.5 M AAV – Arbitration 3 at Age 29.* * 1B Anthony Rizzo: $20.0 AAV – Signed at Age 34.
*Rizzo, Goldy & Alonso are all free agents this off-season.*
Unrelated to Vladdy but a great quote from Passan in this video:
“When the Rays are in on you during free agency, something has gone wrong.”
10/280. get it done.
let vladdy play 3b then
You let Vladdy walk who is going to be the teams “superstar”? Kirk?
10 years 300 million. Just do it and move on.
I agree.
“He got paid dumbass”
– Jeff Passan in the future, probably
I think most of us would be more than happy with a 10/300 deal, so if they get him for less, even better.
The Alonzo thing is a good point, though Vlad is also 4 years younger and I think has more value to the Jays beyond just his numbers. But a bad Alonzo market could help drive down Vladdy’s price. The question is, do you risk waiting that long or do you just try to get a deal done asap, even if it costs you a few million more a year? Because going into next season without a new contract is worst case scenario, and at that point you have to consider trading him and the whole “we are competing in 2025” thing looks like a major misstep.
I say get a deal done this winter regardless, even if something like 10/300 feels like an overpay.
The only question is whether the Jays are able to work the deal before he hits free agency.
So long as he remains a Jay I don’t really care what the number is, but I really do think he could get that amount. It’s been done before and it isn’t like there are a ton of AS 1B out there.
10yr @ $30 AAV. Lock him up. He’s the Jays franchise player.
Not that I have a reason to doubt Jeff Passan and I really like what he shares about the game but honestly I am not sure why his position matters in this calculation. Vladdy just might be the first 1st baseman to sign for $300 mil. regardless of if one thinks he is worth it, I can see him getting this offer, maybe not by the Jays, but some team will pay this man.
We all can see the power of marketability and persona that transcends on-field performance – just look at Ohtani, who is worth his contract for pure brand awareness before you even get to him being a unique baseball talent.
Vladdy is one of the few homegrown stars the Jays have had, and he is a friendly and marketable persona. As he continues to endear himself to the fanbase through excellent performance on the field, improving English-language communication, and more endorsement deals to appear in commercials etc, it is clear that he is well worth the price of a big contract.
Yes he plays 1B and is not a big defensive value-add. But he is top offensive player in baseball, and a valuable persona for the team to retain. Our corporate ownership has the cash and the financial security to pony up for a franchise player. In conclusion, PAY THE MAN.
They got some other hitters that we don’t know about??? Just get it done ffs.
Another team will totally pay that if Shatkins won’t.
Interesting thing mentioned too is he believes Bo won’t entertain an extension
The largest contract we (Jays) have given was the 6 for $150USD to Springer. Largest ever. I think he’s right, too big of a gamble for the board to buy into. They’re way too conservative with spends. Especially with the poor out look for the next few years and the renovation expenses to recoup.
Then let’s call him a 3rd Baseman, start him every game at 1st, sign him and move along.
They should never move him off 3rd to begin with he was more valuable at 3rd base and he was young and got to major. They need to pay him that money He is more than just a player in this market and really the only exciting player they have.
A DH got a lot more than that.
Franchise player? of course. HoF player? not quite. We certainly should weigh those two.
The Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324 million dollar contract in 2019 after his age 28 season. Vladdy represents less of a risk than that.
At this point, I expect that Vlad (or his agency) will want to test the market and see how high the offers will go. I think that Vlad genuinely wants to play in Toronto, but he has nothing to lose by starting an auction for his services. This would likely get more money out of the Jays than if he agreed to an extension in this offseason.
As a fanbase we love Vlad. As an individual fan I love Vlad. We all want to see him stay a Blue Jay the rest of his career.
That said, given the current market Jeff Passan is right and we’d be foolish to offer him a 300m deal right now. The recent comparisons do not support paying any first baseman that amount of money.
Age is a big factor with these deals, and if you swap Freddie Freeman’s career line with Vlad’s maybe there would be at least a discussion, but the fact is Vladdy does not have nearly the track record to merit a 300m deal even if he is still very young.
And like unlimited coat hangers for vibe purposes
If you’re going to go 10/30, there needs to be an opt-out for the club somewhere around year 7/8.
Overpaying to that extent means you have to have a relief valve if it all goes to shit at some point.
Vladdy will get what he wants. Could be more than that.
Everyone predicting what jays FO will do, yet we don’t know who will be our new FO this offseason
10x$285m
Someone’s gonna pay that. WTF is Passan talking about? He’s going to be 26 going into FA and everyone else I’ll be interested.
I say pay him 325×10 if he wants with no opt outs. He’s going to have another MVP type season at some point. You might get a few bad ones in there too, but he’s a stud
10/300 through age 35 is a pretty good deal. Even a player like Harper is a full time 1B by age 30.
His arbitration next year will probably get him 22-25m. That means whatever he signs the following season will probably start at $25m. Unless he absolutely falls off a cliff I don’t think $30m per year is a bad deal at all.
If anything you give him an opt out at the 6year mark (his age 31 season).
Fine, 10/299. Fuck you Passan.
$250m/10, with $50m in performance bonuses. Ops+ and rbi based. 2.5m each.
Nice to see the pros supporting my take. 10/$280M let’s go.
36 comments
Miggy got 240m like 10 years ago, it’s very possible.
Most 1B aren’t 1B at 25
Vlad is such an outlier though. 1B are often very old when they reach the Majors due to their bat taking a very long time to develop or they end up at 1B after formally failing at other positions. Vlad will be 26 for all of next season and his extension starts with his age 27 season most likely. That will play a big role in it.
*Only 7 1B making more than $20 M AAV…which are also all the 1B making more than Vlad right now too..*
* *1B Bryce Harper – $27.3 M AAV – Signed when he was playing OF.*
* *1B Kris Bryant – $26.0 M AAV – Signed when he was playing 3B.*
* *1B Paul Goldschmidt: $26.0 M AAV – Signed at Age 32.*
* *1B Freddie Freeman: $24.7 M AAV – Signed at Age 32.*
* *1B Matt Olson: $21.0 M AAV – Signed at Age 28.*
* *1B Pete Alonso: $20.5 M AAV – Arbitration 3 at Age 29.*
* 1B Anthony Rizzo: $20.0 AAV – Signed at Age 34.
*Rizzo, Goldy & Alonso are all free agents this off-season.*
Unrelated to Vladdy but a great quote from Passan in this video:
“When the Rays are in on you during free agency, something has gone wrong.”
10/280. get it done.
let vladdy play 3b then
You let Vladdy walk who is going to be the teams “superstar”? Kirk?
10 years 300 million. Just do it and move on.
I agree.
“He got paid dumbass”
– Jeff Passan in the future, probably
I think most of us would be more than happy with a 10/300 deal, so if they get him for less, even better.
The Alonzo thing is a good point, though Vlad is also 4 years younger and I think has more value to the Jays beyond just his numbers. But a bad Alonzo market could help drive down Vladdy’s price. The question is, do you risk waiting that long or do you just try to get a deal done asap, even if it costs you a few million more a year? Because going into next season without a new contract is worst case scenario, and at that point you have to consider trading him and the whole “we are competing in 2025” thing looks like a major misstep.
I say get a deal done this winter regardless, even if something like 10/300 feels like an overpay.
[Pay him. Pay that man his money.](https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnlrcWdqeWt5ejhtNGZsMWExY2plNDlnNTlkeTE5bTJsN25oNzZvdyZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/pReb5Koy6JmihUYBLx/giphy.gif)
Does anyone think Vladi WON’T get a $300m deal?
The only question is whether the Jays are able to work the deal before he hits free agency.
So long as he remains a Jay I don’t really care what the number is, but I really do think he could get that amount. It’s been done before and it isn’t like there are a ton of AS 1B out there.
10yr @ $30 AAV. Lock him up. He’s the Jays franchise player.
Not that I have a reason to doubt Jeff Passan and I really like what he shares about the game but honestly I am not sure why his position matters in this calculation. Vladdy just might be the first 1st baseman to sign for $300 mil. regardless of if one thinks he is worth it, I can see him getting this offer, maybe not by the Jays, but some team will pay this man.
We all can see the power of marketability and persona that transcends on-field performance – just look at Ohtani, who is worth his contract for pure brand awareness before you even get to him being a unique baseball talent.
Vladdy is one of the few homegrown stars the Jays have had, and he is a friendly and marketable persona. As he continues to endear himself to the fanbase through excellent performance on the field, improving English-language communication, and more endorsement deals to appear in commercials etc, it is clear that he is well worth the price of a big contract.
Yes he plays 1B and is not a big defensive value-add. But he is top offensive player in baseball, and a valuable persona for the team to retain. Our corporate ownership has the cash and the financial security to pony up for a franchise player. In conclusion, PAY THE MAN.
They got some other hitters that we don’t know about??? Just get it done ffs.
Another team will totally pay that if Shatkins won’t.
Interesting thing mentioned too is he believes Bo won’t entertain an extension
The largest contract we (Jays) have given was the 6 for $150USD to Springer. Largest ever. I think he’s right, too big of a gamble for the board to buy into. They’re way too conservative with spends. Especially with the poor out look for the next few years and the renovation expenses to recoup.
Then let’s call him a 3rd Baseman, start him every game at 1st, sign him and move along.
They should never move him off 3rd to begin with he was more valuable at 3rd base and he was young and got to major. They need to pay him that money He is more than just a player in this market and really the only exciting player they have.
A DH got a lot more than that.
Franchise player? of course. HoF player? not quite. We certainly should weigh those two.
The Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324 million dollar contract in 2019 after his age 28 season. Vladdy represents less of a risk than that.
At this point, I expect that Vlad (or his agency) will want to test the market and see how high the offers will go. I think that Vlad genuinely wants to play in Toronto, but he has nothing to lose by starting an auction for his services. This would likely get more money out of the Jays than if he agreed to an extension in this offseason.
As a fanbase we love Vlad. As an individual fan I love Vlad. We all want to see him stay a Blue Jay the rest of his career.
That said, given the current market Jeff Passan is right and we’d be foolish to offer him a 300m deal right now. The recent comparisons do not support paying any first baseman that amount of money.
Age is a big factor with these deals, and if you swap Freddie Freeman’s career line with Vlad’s maybe there would be at least a discussion, but the fact is Vladdy does not have nearly the track record to merit a 300m deal even if he is still very young.
And like unlimited coat hangers for vibe purposes
If you’re going to go 10/30, there needs to be an opt-out for the club somewhere around year 7/8.
Overpaying to that extent means you have to have a relief valve if it all goes to shit at some point.
Vladdy will get what he wants. Could be more than that.
Everyone predicting what jays FO will do, yet we don’t know who will be our new FO this offseason
10x$285m
Someone’s gonna pay that. WTF is Passan talking about? He’s going to be 26 going into FA and everyone else I’ll be interested.
I say pay him 325×10 if he wants with no opt outs. He’s going to have another MVP type season at some point. You might get a few bad ones in there too, but he’s a stud
10/300 through age 35 is a pretty good deal. Even a player like Harper is a full time 1B by age 30.
His arbitration next year will probably get him 22-25m. That means whatever he signs the following season will probably start at $25m. Unless he absolutely falls off a cliff I don’t think $30m per year is a bad deal at all.
If anything you give him an opt out at the 6year mark (his age 31 season).
Fine, 10/299. Fuck you Passan.
$250m/10, with $50m in performance bonuses. Ops+ and rbi based. 2.5m each.
Nice to see the pros supporting my take. 10/$280M let’s go.