Based on SportLogiq’s private data, public models may be overrating the Sens defense from last season, and underrating the Bruins


SportLogiq has Ottawa as the 19th best team in xG differential(total +3), while MoneyPuck saw them as the 15th best team at +5. Conversely, Boston ranks 17th by SportLogiq at +14, while MoneyPuck ranks them 20th at +3

The result is Ottawa having the third worst "goal differential above expected" by MoneyPuck – the impact of finishing talent and goaltending – while SportLogiq has them 7th from last, with a difference of 10.7 goals between the two values.

Similarly, there's a 10 goal gap between MP and SL's "differential above expected" for Boston, with MoneyPuck showing an extra 10 goals scored/saved

The last picture shows the "expected standings" from last year, where neutral goaltending and finishing for each team has Ottawa tied for 9th in the conference and 4 points out of the playoffs.

Ottawa is by no means the abysmal defensive team some make them out to be, but they're also probably worse than the public numbers show

Leave a Reply