This isn't about the player and his production per se. Rather, about how that move really screwed the team if you look at the bigger picture. I'm not a Leafs fan, but I've always been puzzled / fascinated about how such a talented team can't get it done in the playoffs.
Tavares was an A-tier center for many years in the league and no one can really debate that. But, when you sign a big fish in free agency, you usually end up paying above market value. That created a precedent in the team where, if an A-tier player got 11M$, then their S-tier players were obviously entitled to similar or higher compensation. So, that one 11M$ contract actually turned into multiple ones in an attempt to keep their very talented core intact. But, that created huge cap problems, which then turned into depth problems on the ice. Finally, that resulted in them constantly losing in the playoffs to teams, usually less talented, but with better depth. Hockey is one of the only sports where your best players are less than half of the time on "the field" (ice in this case) so, that obviously creates a huge problem.
Everything seems to come back to signing Tavares for me. Specifically, it caused a chain of events that led to very poor cap management, which then led to poor performance in the playoffs. So, the Leafs found themselves in "limbo" with much too good of a team to rebuild but not good enough to win the cup.
I find this is a cautionary tale for any team trying artificially to push a rebuild forward through free agency. Sort of what the Red Wings did last year and what the Kings did this year. Although, I don't think they messed up quite as bad as Toronto.
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Yeah that is basically what Dubas said himself in a recent interview, that the Tavares signing pushed up the contract demands for the rest of the core and that he had failed to foresee how much that would hurt the cap in the future.
Typical leafs. Try to rush a rebuild. I know they were making the playoffs with Matthews before Jt came to Toronto, but if they just waited and signed a tier 1 defensemen or goalie. They didn’t need forward depth to push the team forward.
Instead of Tavares a good goalie maybe yes…
COVID also prevented the cap from rising, which I believe the leafs were planning for that rise.
Leafs need another rebuild ala buffalo. But with players actually wanting to come there after they get the defense and goalie talent
I agree. Feel like Dubas tried to make a splash as a GM with Tavares. Could have waited a year for a deeper FA pool. Easy to say now tho
Ya…..this ain’t it.
Nikita Zaitsev
Not as bad as your English, dude!
Imo idk about the whole depth team part tho. Look at the Jets, all depth no chance in the playoffs. Arguably #1 goalie as well too.
Leafs fan downvoting this 🤣😂🤣😂
Damn I really ruffled some feathers with this one 😂 I would think Leafs fans would have more self awareness at this point
Can we take a moment here to imagine a very likely scenerio where it’s like the year 2040 or something and all leafs fans have are memories of this core being perennial second round contenders. Even though I derive pleasure from this reality, that just aint right
Talking to leaf fans about bad moves is like talking to a blind person about the colour yellow…..they have a concept of what it is, but they never have seen it. At least not in leafs nation…
If I were a player and I could choose between living, tax free in the hot sun and easy going lifestyle
OR
A market that’s a cold tundra 8 months of the year, where 40% of my salary is taxed, where my every move is micromanaged and analyzed by know it all sportscasters, where no name reporters are constantly pushing my buttons hoping for a reaction, and with a toxic fanbase with no concept of boundaries.
….where do you think I would go…
Btw Dubas much like the players was under the same pressure from leafs nation….you can’t win in a market like that.
With the advantage of hindsight, maybe. Rarely do these signing work as intended. Tavares was a great player who could put up points and make his line mates all stars. He’s slow.
But the cap hit is really the kick to the balls. I was excited to have him sign. At the time, we would’ve had three great centres on Matthews, Kadri and Tavares. It didn’t work out.
But, I don’t know if this was the worst move.
I like Dubas. He brings excitement and new ideas to the table. And when you do that you’ll make mistakes. It would be worse if he hesitated and never took any chances. And it’s not like Tavares isn’t a great player, so it would have been hard to predict the outcome anyways. Easy to look back when you have all the answers.
The leafs hadn’t signed a top free agent like that since before the lockout. Who was their big signing before Tavares post lockout? Jason Blake or David Clarkson? It changed the culture of Toronto and guys now want to play there.
It’s revisionist history, the Leafs missed out on signing the big UFA, Stamkos. At that time, they had a young, unproven core and no significant draft picks to continue building through the draft. It was the right moment to sign free agents and complete a competitive roster. Tavares came as advertised if they didn’t sign him fans would have revolted and declared top UFAs won’t sign in Toronto. Really Tavares has been a terrific leader both on and off the ice—not overly vocal or flashy, but I believe the entire room has the utmost respect for him. While his game has slowed down, that was always expected toward the tail end of his contract. He still puts up solid numbers, and I truly believe that the serious concussion he suffered in the series against the Habs affected him longer than he let on. I would also argue that if he hadn’t been injured, the Leafs might have won that series, as he was just starting to catch fire.
I’m happy to see that he has passed on his captaincy, but I hope he stays with the Leafs after next year on what will hopefully be a final, team-friendly contract to end his career with the team.
Now, if we’re discussing Dubas’ mistakes, they primarily involve being taken advantage of in contract negotiations with Matthews and Marner. His inexperience in playing hardball with young stars really hamstrung the Leafs. Additionally, the unforeseen impact of COVID-19 meant that the extra cap space the Leafs expected—which would have offset any decline in Tavares’ play—never materialized. Once the contracts for Matthews, Marner, and Nylander came due, the financial squeeze was truly felt, leading to the loss of Hyman for nothing and the inability to sign or acquire a decent bottom-six forward group, top-four defenseman, or a reliable goalie.
You have conveniently left a few crucial details out.
1. COVID happened within 18 months of signing Marner & Matthews, thus effectively flattening the cap for most of their 2nd deals. As a result, they didn’t get really any cap % easing on those deals the way Pitt did with Crosby / Malkin / Letang or Washington did with Ovie / Backstrom etc
For reference, the cap this year is $88M. In the months before COVID halted play, the estimated 2020-2021 cap was going to be… $88M. If COVID doesn’t happen, the cap is easily over $100M now and the Leafs would’ve had the benefit of cap easing through all of the young 3’s 2nd deals.
For instance, they opted to let Hyman walk over ~$1.5M. If Covid doesn’t happen, the cap is mid-$90M range when Hyman approaches UFA and he surely stays.
2. Considering fact 1, saying they had poor cap management after signing the “Big 4” is, at best, debatable.
3. You compare LA and Detroit making early pushes to compete but say “they didn’t mess up as bad as Toronto”. Of these teams’ respective young guns (no Kopitar for example), who would you point to that has upside close to Marner and Nylander (because there’s no one on either roster that has Matthews’ upside so ignore him)? Kind of important point here.
They’d drafted 34/16/88 in successive years, still had Kadri, Rielly, etc etc. They didn’t do a full tear-down rebuild. So saying they were trying to “artificially build their team through free agency” is a pretty ludicrous statement.
4. They signed Tavares for 34/16/88’s 3rd full years, not when they were rookies. Without Tavares they had made the playoffs in each of their first 2 full seasons and had competitive series against legit cup contenders in Washington. So, signing Tavares at this point was completely reasonable timing. It’s not like they could have waited 2 yrs to sign him.
Tavares signing was a smart calculated risk that didn’t pan out completely. It’s not like he was ass
The Matthews, Marner + Nylander deals were worse
There was 0,000000000% chance of winning a fucking thing with those deals
With the Tavares deal, you could at least have a 3% chance of winning
# Petr Mrazek. end of story. Actually the sad story continues: Maglin for Marchment sucked. And don’t forget the Kadri trade.
He sucked as a GM but Toronto fan boys loved the chubby face “wiz kid”….because he was a useless nerd…like most of them,
That signing wasn’t necessarily Dubas’s sole choice I believe. I think it was more of an organisational move with inertia from both sides to make it happen.
Dubas would have been fired had he not signed Tavares in all likelihood.