Meyers needs be on the “honorable mention” list here that doesn’t exist.
*Heading into the 2024 MLB season, there was a deep group of talented top prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. As we enter the final weeks, many of those young players have shown what the hype was all about as major league rookies while also graduating from eligibility for my top-100 list.*
*Once they graduate, it’s easy for me to stop evaluating these players and instead chase the shiny object of new prospects, so here’s where I see things among the rookies turning into big league veterans. Keep in mind, this list is more about the long-term value of the young stars, not their expected Rookie of the Year finish or 2024 stats, and you won’t find Shota Imanaga or Yoshinobu Yamamoto included because, as international pros, they were never part of my prospect rankings.*
*From a trio of franchise cornerstones to a deep supporting cast, let’s rank the top 15 players who have graduated from prospects to major league contributors this season.*
——————
*The franchise cornerstones*
1. Jackson Chourio, LF, Milwaukee Brewers, 20 years old
2. Jackson Merrill, CF, San Diego Padres, 21
3. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, 22
*It’s basically impossible to split up these three. They are the best players on Earth born in each of their birth years and clearly showing why in the majors. I’m inclined to lean toward position players over pitchers, and youth beyond that, but you can really put them in any order. I think they’re all 3.5- to 5-win players annually, which means getting MVP votes in their good years and still making All-Star teams in the others.*
*The No. 2 prospect on my preseason top 100, Chourio signed an $82 million extension before making his major league debut and had significant Rookie of the Year buzz. He started pretty slow (.217/.257/.344 for a 66 wRC+) before hitting his stride around June 10. He has posted the 14th-best WAR in baseball since then with a .310/.373/.540 line with a 150 wRC+, meaning he has been 50% better than league average after adjusting for park and league. Chourio also adds value in the outfield, where he is good enough to play center field for most teams but has been limited to the corner positions in deference to Blake Perkins. Chourio has posted big defensive metrics — anywhere from plus-5 to plus-12 runs this season based on various metrics — putting his value in the field similar to what Merrill is giving the Padres while playing center.*
*Merrill hadn’t played center field in a professional game until spring training this year and is solidly above average by almost every advanced defensive metric available. He was 20 in spring training and his highest level of competition at that point was just 46 games in Double-A, but he’s on the verge of a 20-20 rookie season and is sitting on 4.3 WAR (by far the best among rookies) despite being notably hit-unlucky this year, according to Baseball Savant’s xwOBA statistic. Like Chourio, he hit his stride a couple of months into the season, and he has posted the ninth-best WAR in the majors since June 10.*
*Besides Chourio being younger than Merrill, there is one on-the-field performance indicator that helped me decide to put him at the top of this tier: chase rate. We’ve seen a number of touted prospects reach the big leagues with this question and the best players usually fix it immediately. Merrill’s chase rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) has been worse than average every month of the season: 36% on the year versus a league average of 29%. Chourio started the season with a similar chase rate to Merrill’s, but he has been much better in the second half — a full percentage point better than league average. That’s not the silver bullet to a successful career, but, among players with similar ability, the ability to make adjustments is, and that’s a key way that Chourio is showing his ability to adjust.*
*Since being called up on May 11, among qualified starting pitchers, Skenes leads the majors in average fastball velocity and ERA, and ranks second in ERA estimators (xFIP, SIERA) along with strikeout rate (behind only Chris Sale in all three categories). When I broke down how Skenes was dominating nine starts into his career, I said he was already a top-five pitcher in the game, that I thought what he was doing was totally sustainable and that he might be the best pitcher in baseball in short order. I still stand by that opinion.*
——————
*The emerging stars*
4. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles, 20
5. Wyatt Langford, LF, Texas Rangers, 22
6. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays, 21
7. James Wood, LF, Washington Nationals, 21
*All of these players ranked in the top five of my top-100 list at various points during this calendar year. None have found the kind of massive early success of the first group, but I’m still bullish on the prospects for this group. It hasn’t shown up in his big league production yet, but everything that led to Holliday’s big minor league numbers is still present and I think some subtle swing adjustments could do the trick for next season. Langford has been hot and cold at the plate as a rookie, running hot for the last 30 games or so, while contributing in all phases.*
*Caminero is about a week from graduating from prospect status, but I’ve included him here. He could hit 30 home runs per season while sticking at third base, but it’s still early so we need to see how he develops. Wood’s defensive metrics are worse than I expected, but he has done the most of this group at the plate in the big leagues thus far.*
——————
*The solid contributors*
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs, 22
9. Colton Cowser, LF, Baltimore Orioles 24
10. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Atlanta Braves, 24
11. Mason Miller, RHP, Oakland Athletics, 26
12. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals, 22
13. Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees, 25
14. Lawrence Butler, RF, Oakland Athletics, 24
15. Evan Carter, LF, Texas Rangers, 22
*The initial plan was for this to be a top-10 list, but I could have easily gone 20-deep with first-year players who look like potential above-average regulars or better, at least No. 4 starters or high-leverage relievers and it wouldn’t be surprising for some members of this tier to develop into stars.*
*Crow-Armstrong is the worst hitter in this group, but he is already one of the best defenders in MLB on a per inning basis, delivering on the reputation he has had since high school. Ender Inciarte isn’t a sexy comp, but the numbers look very similar and Inciarte posted 15.7 WAR through his age-27 season. Cowser and Schwellenbach were a tier behind Crow-Armstrong in terms of prospect buzz entering the season but have leveled up since. Miller is one of the best relievers in baseball and now has stayed healthy when some thought he would never be able to given his injury history.*
*Winn and Wells both delivered on their long-time top 100 tracks record this season, with Wells’ framing skills behind the plate the biggest surprise between them. Carter sat out much of 2024 because of a back injury after his strong debut and playoff run in 2023; I’m still seeing a strong regular here. Butler joins Schwellenbach as a prospect in the 101-175 range entering the spring who has taken a big step forward. Butler has been especially hot the last 51 games, hitting .333/.373/.697 with 17 home runs with nine stolen bases while also playing a solid corner outfield.*
——————
*Rising players to watch*
*Pirates starter Jared Jones, Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz and Minnesota Twins infielder Brooks Lee all land here after making my preseason top-100 list and showing various signs of success during the season.*
*Among players who weren’t on my preseason top 100, Yankees starter Luis Gil was the last cut from this top 15, primarily because of his position. San Francisco Giants infielder Tyler Fitzgerald is another late cut who has shown starter-level tools and performance in a hit-lucky rookie year. And while Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu was a rookie to watch entering the season, he has also outperformed my projections. Porter Hodge has pitched well enough that it looks as if he might now be the Chicago Cubs’ closer of the future.*
*The Cleveland Guardians have also had two of the bigger rookie surprises: Cade Smith, who has emerged as a shutdown bullpen arm and wasn’t even on my preseason team list, and Jhonkensy Noel, who has hit 13 home runs in his first 51 games after I feared his approach would keep him from finding early success in the big leagues.*
At least they’re acknowledging Chourio’s existence now
Skenes has Livvy. He doesn’t need to win anything any time soon
6 comments
[deleted]
LOL. $10.99 to read ESPN’s trash. No thanks.
Meyers needs be on the “honorable mention” list here that doesn’t exist.
*Heading into the 2024 MLB season, there was a deep group of talented top prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. As we enter the final weeks, many of those young players have shown what the hype was all about as major league rookies while also graduating from eligibility for my top-100 list.*
*Once they graduate, it’s easy for me to stop evaluating these players and instead chase the shiny object of new prospects, so here’s where I see things among the rookies turning into big league veterans. Keep in mind, this list is more about the long-term value of the young stars, not their expected Rookie of the Year finish or 2024 stats, and you won’t find Shota Imanaga or Yoshinobu Yamamoto included because, as international pros, they were never part of my prospect rankings.*
*From a trio of franchise cornerstones to a deep supporting cast, let’s rank the top 15 players who have graduated from prospects to major league contributors this season.*
——————
*The franchise cornerstones*
1. Jackson Chourio, LF, Milwaukee Brewers, 20 years old
2. Jackson Merrill, CF, San Diego Padres, 21
3. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, 22
*It’s basically impossible to split up these three. They are the best players on Earth born in each of their birth years and clearly showing why in the majors. I’m inclined to lean toward position players over pitchers, and youth beyond that, but you can really put them in any order. I think they’re all 3.5- to 5-win players annually, which means getting MVP votes in their good years and still making All-Star teams in the others.*
*The No. 2 prospect on my preseason top 100, Chourio signed an $82 million extension before making his major league debut and had significant Rookie of the Year buzz. He started pretty slow (.217/.257/.344 for a 66 wRC+) before hitting his stride around June 10. He has posted the 14th-best WAR in baseball since then with a .310/.373/.540 line with a 150 wRC+, meaning he has been 50% better than league average after adjusting for park and league. Chourio also adds value in the outfield, where he is good enough to play center field for most teams but has been limited to the corner positions in deference to Blake Perkins. Chourio has posted big defensive metrics — anywhere from plus-5 to plus-12 runs this season based on various metrics — putting his value in the field similar to what Merrill is giving the Padres while playing center.*
*Merrill hadn’t played center field in a professional game until spring training this year and is solidly above average by almost every advanced defensive metric available. He was 20 in spring training and his highest level of competition at that point was just 46 games in Double-A, but he’s on the verge of a 20-20 rookie season and is sitting on 4.3 WAR (by far the best among rookies) despite being notably hit-unlucky this year, according to Baseball Savant’s xwOBA statistic. Like Chourio, he hit his stride a couple of months into the season, and he has posted the ninth-best WAR in the majors since June 10.*
*Besides Chourio being younger than Merrill, there is one on-the-field performance indicator that helped me decide to put him at the top of this tier: chase rate. We’ve seen a number of touted prospects reach the big leagues with this question and the best players usually fix it immediately. Merrill’s chase rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) has been worse than average every month of the season: 36% on the year versus a league average of 29%. Chourio started the season with a similar chase rate to Merrill’s, but he has been much better in the second half — a full percentage point better than league average. That’s not the silver bullet to a successful career, but, among players with similar ability, the ability to make adjustments is, and that’s a key way that Chourio is showing his ability to adjust.*
*Since being called up on May 11, among qualified starting pitchers, Skenes leads the majors in average fastball velocity and ERA, and ranks second in ERA estimators (xFIP, SIERA) along with strikeout rate (behind only Chris Sale in all three categories). When I broke down how Skenes was dominating nine starts into his career, I said he was already a top-five pitcher in the game, that I thought what he was doing was totally sustainable and that he might be the best pitcher in baseball in short order. I still stand by that opinion.*
——————
*The emerging stars*
4. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles, 20
5. Wyatt Langford, LF, Texas Rangers, 22
6. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays, 21
7. James Wood, LF, Washington Nationals, 21
*All of these players ranked in the top five of my top-100 list at various points during this calendar year. None have found the kind of massive early success of the first group, but I’m still bullish on the prospects for this group. It hasn’t shown up in his big league production yet, but everything that led to Holliday’s big minor league numbers is still present and I think some subtle swing adjustments could do the trick for next season. Langford has been hot and cold at the plate as a rookie, running hot for the last 30 games or so, while contributing in all phases.*
*Caminero is about a week from graduating from prospect status, but I’ve included him here. He could hit 30 home runs per season while sticking at third base, but it’s still early so we need to see how he develops. Wood’s defensive metrics are worse than I expected, but he has done the most of this group at the plate in the big leagues thus far.*
——————
*The solid contributors*
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs, 22
9. Colton Cowser, LF, Baltimore Orioles 24
10. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Atlanta Braves, 24
11. Mason Miller, RHP, Oakland Athletics, 26
12. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals, 22
13. Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees, 25
14. Lawrence Butler, RF, Oakland Athletics, 24
15. Evan Carter, LF, Texas Rangers, 22
*The initial plan was for this to be a top-10 list, but I could have easily gone 20-deep with first-year players who look like potential above-average regulars or better, at least No. 4 starters or high-leverage relievers and it wouldn’t be surprising for some members of this tier to develop into stars.*
*Crow-Armstrong is the worst hitter in this group, but he is already one of the best defenders in MLB on a per inning basis, delivering on the reputation he has had since high school. Ender Inciarte isn’t a sexy comp, but the numbers look very similar and Inciarte posted 15.7 WAR through his age-27 season. Cowser and Schwellenbach were a tier behind Crow-Armstrong in terms of prospect buzz entering the season but have leveled up since. Miller is one of the best relievers in baseball and now has stayed healthy when some thought he would never be able to given his injury history.*
*Winn and Wells both delivered on their long-time top 100 tracks record this season, with Wells’ framing skills behind the plate the biggest surprise between them. Carter sat out much of 2024 because of a back injury after his strong debut and playoff run in 2023; I’m still seeing a strong regular here. Butler joins Schwellenbach as a prospect in the 101-175 range entering the spring who has taken a big step forward. Butler has been especially hot the last 51 games, hitting .333/.373/.697 with 17 home runs with nine stolen bases while also playing a solid corner outfield.*
——————
*Rising players to watch*
*Pirates starter Jared Jones, Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz and Minnesota Twins infielder Brooks Lee all land here after making my preseason top-100 list and showing various signs of success during the season.*
*Among players who weren’t on my preseason top 100, Yankees starter Luis Gil was the last cut from this top 15, primarily because of his position. San Francisco Giants infielder Tyler Fitzgerald is another late cut who has shown starter-level tools and performance in a hit-lucky rookie year. And while Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu was a rookie to watch entering the season, he has also outperformed my projections. Porter Hodge has pitched well enough that it looks as if he might now be the Chicago Cubs’ closer of the future.*
*The Cleveland Guardians have also had two of the bigger rookie surprises: Cade Smith, who has emerged as a shutdown bullpen arm and wasn’t even on my preseason team list, and Jhonkensy Noel, who has hit 13 home runs in his first 51 games after I feared his approach would keep him from finding early success in the big leagues.*
At least they’re acknowledging Chourio’s existence now
Skenes has Livvy. He doesn’t need to win anything any time soon