Welcome to the fifth iteration of 2024’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.
Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:
- H2H: Head-to-Head
- WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
- WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
- SOV: Strength of Victory
- SOS: Strength of Schedule
Week #4 Review
So, Buffalo’s loss was a rough one which could have ramifications down the line, but it wasn’t all bad this week. For one (two, three), the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots each dropped their respective contests keeping Buffalo atop the AFC East. They also got a little help via a Steelers loss, but the division losses clearly highlighted the positive outcomes of this week. On a negative side the Bengals and Chiefs each won in Week #4 while a few other minor games went against Buffalo. All in all, a good week, but here’s to hoping Week #5 is highlighted by at least a Buffalo win.
Rooting Interests Record: 18-23 (LW 4-6)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -7 (LW +2 👏)
Buccaneers @ Falcons (Thursday 8:15PM)
Thursday Night Football gives us a…meaningless game (for the Bills). That will change beginning next week as we have a better gauge on the good and bad teams and can root for drops in their respective SOS/SOV, but for now watch this game purely for enjoyment. And it should be a good one as Baker’s Bucs take on Kirk’s Dirty Birds in a pivotal NFC South matchup.
Also, if you enjoy these posts, check out The Greg Tompsett Sports Show during halftime of this game for even more insight in what to root for this week!
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Jets (2-2) @ Vikings (4-0) – Sunday 9:30AM 👏👏👏👏
You’ve gotta love Sunday morning football in London (When the Bills aren’t playing in it)! The New York Jets get a free away game as they hop across the pond and take on the surprisingly undefeated Minnesota Vikings. In the context of Rooting Interests, this is about as straightforward as it gets, Buffalo’s only real AFC East threat taking on an NFC team.
Optimal Outcome: Vikings Victory
Panthers (1-3) @ Bears (2-2) – Sunday 1:00PM
We may start giving out an Ugly Game of the Week award in these posts, and if this is the week we start, this is the game. The Panthers STINK and the Bears have a clear and present odor. Further, there is no real rooting interest here for the Bills so if you really really want to watch Tepper’s Panthers take on the “generational” Caleb William’s Bears, be my guest, just not in my house.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Ravens (2-2) @ Bengals (1-3) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏👏
The best way for the Buffalo Bills to get revenge for the absolute thumping the Baltimore Ravens handed them on Sunday Night, is for the Cincinnati Bengals to drop the Ravens back below .500. This keeps the Ravens from being able to pass the Bills in the standings for at least another week while two AFC North threats each maintain more losses than wins. Moving forward there is going to be a lot of rooting against the Baltimore Ravens as that H2H tiebreaker looms large.
Optimal Outcome: Bengals Victory
Dolphins (1-3) @ Patriots (1-3) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏👏
The former offensive wunderkind, Mike McDaniel, has struggled to an extreme since losing his QB1 Tua Tagovailoa. The newly minted Head Coach of the Patriots, Jerod Mayo, has struggled to get his team to play consistent football since their Week 1 victory over the Bengals. Two 1-3 team, two AFC East teams, and two teams sitting at 1-3 in desperate need of a victory take the field here. Your heart may disagree, but rooting for the Dolphins to win is the play here as their H2H loss to the Bills sets the optimal outcome of this matchup.
Optimal Outcome: Dolphins Victory
Browns (1-3) @ Commanders (3-1) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏
The Browns are on the precipice of complete collapse and seemed poised to begin a fire-sale if they drop another game this weekend. Unfortunately for them they must take on one of the league’s most surprising teams and best offenses in the Washington Commanders. For Bills Mafia rooting for Jayden Daniels to maintain his hot streak here is paramount as another loss by the Browns all but eliminates them from contention in the AFC playoff race.
Optimal Outcome: Commanders Victory
Colts (2-2) @ Jaguars (0-4) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏
The last time the Jacksonville Jaguars won a game which Trevor Lawrence started was November 26, 2023. While wins are not a quarterback state, a team not winning a game in 311 days is quite an indictment of the apparent “generational” talent. They are now in must win mode against an Indianapolis Colts team which may be better with Joe Flacco instead of Anthony Richardson. As for rooting here, the Colts falling below .500 at the hands of a team Buffalo holds an H2H tiebreaker over seems like a nice little win.
Optimal Outcome: Jaguars Victory
Bills (3-1) @ Texans (3-1) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏
The best way to quell the bad taste left by a 25-point loss is by dominating the Texans in their house. Do that, get to 4-1 and be right back on track.
Optimal Outcome: Bills Victory
Raiders (2-2) @ Broncos (2-2) – Sunday 4:05PM
The Raiders have beaten the Ravens, and the Broncos have beaten the Jets, yet no one seems to think either of these teams are very good, but they surely are spicy. And this will be a spicy game where one of these two teams will leave 3-2, something neither fan base could have expected 5 games into the season. Unfortunately, there is no rooting interest in this game just yet, but it’s highly likely the victor will be one to monitor moving forward.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (2-2) – Sunday 4:05PM 👏
Cardinals @ 49ers will go a long way in determining the hierarchy of the NFC West while also providing some insight into the Bills. Their victory over the Cardinals was a solid one against a team that is much better than their 1-3 record suggests. The 49ers remain on the Bills schedule later this year and have had an up and down season with some dominance and some embarrassment. Root for the team Buffalo has already beaten to leave this won victorious in order to guarantee a bump to SOV.
Optimal Outcome: Cardinals Victory
Packers (2-2) @ Rams (1-3) – Sunday 4:25PM 👏
The Bills won’t see the NFC Packers this season but will see the NFC Rams on December 8th in LA. That means rooting for the Rams to snag a win here and in the process bump SOS with a chance at SOV. It may be minimal, but in games like this minimal remains optimal.
Optimal Outcome: Rams Victory
Giants (1-3) @ Seahawks (3-1) – Sunday 4:25PM 👏
The strategy of rooting for Giants @ Seahawks is the same as Packers @ Rams. Buffalo unfortunately won’t get a look at the minor league version of themselves, the Giants, but will go toe to toe with the Seahawks in mid-October. That means both SOS and SOV are on the game here in a game that the Seahawks seem set to run away with in an ugly manner.
Optimal Outcome: Seahawks Victory
Cowboys (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1) – Sunday 8:20PM 👏👏👏
The Steelers remain the most unserious division leader as a team that doesn’t seem like they belong atop their respective division, yet they are. Couple that with the inconsequential Dallas Cowboys and the Rooting Interest becomes obvious. More losses for the AFC and more wins for the NFC means good things for the Buffalo Bills.
Optimal Outcome: Cowboys Victory
Saints (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0) – Monday 8:15PM 👏👏👏
10 of the Chiefs last 11 games have been one score affairs, they are 9-1 in those contests. Now they host a Saints team that has some firepower and is the only thing standing between Kansas City starting the season 5-0. The Bills are still in striking distance with Kansas City but a loss by a somehow good, somehow struggling, Chiefs franchise will go a long way in providing Buffalo a direct path the #1 seed in the AFC.
Optimal Outcome: Saints Victory
Optimal Standings
If all the above games were to go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings (Tiebreaker details to be added after Week #5).
- Chiefs (4-1)**
- Bills (4-1)**
- Steelers (3-2)**
- Texans (3-2)**
- Raiders (3-2)*
- Chargers (2-2)*
- Broncos (2-3)*
- Jets (2-3)
- Colts (2-3)
- Dolphins (2-3)
- Bengals (2-3)
- Ravens (2-3)
- Titans (1-3)
- Patriots (1-4)
- Browns (1-4)
- Jaguars (1-4)
** Division Leader * Wildcard
5 comments
I disagree with the dolphins pats. The dolphins are getting tua back eventually, and could return to form at that point. The pats are going to be bad all year. The dolphins being in a bigger hole before tua gets back would be better for the bills
Thanks for the write-up! Always a fun read each week.
Two things:
1.) I noticed under the Ravens @ Bengals section that we want to root for the Bengals so “two NFC North threats each maintain more losses than wins.” I’m thinking you meant to say AFC North?
2.) And a question – I’m assuming the answer is probably “no,” but… has there ever been a game the Bills do *not* play in that received a “5 hand clap” rooting interest rating?
I do have one hypothetical question, if we had to lose one, would you rather lose to the ravens or Texans?
Thanks as always for the write up 🤗
Thanks for doing these I find them really helpful. If you have a website or Twitter account or something that needs supporting let us know.