What STATS Should Be Used to Evaluate The Chicago Cubs?

Sam discusses his take on Wins Above replacement and the nuances with metrics and evaluating a team. He also gives his take on the postseason format and an update on an exciting October.

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21 comments

  1. I completely agree with you Sam! Baseball teams still need a few baseball players. WRC is great, but you can't teach certain things. Some guys just have that baseball player/instincts in them. You need some guys like that. Football is the same way. RAS is great, but you need a few "football players."

  4. The problem with individual stats is there's no context. You can pad your stats in "garbage time" or against weaker competition, and it counts the same as when the game and season are on the line. Happ built most of his WAR this year after the Cubs had their disastrous 22-37 two-month stretch and the season was all but lost. He was in a horrible funk for that stretch and was one of the chief reasons the offense was such a no-show. But Hoyer just looks at the total WAR and thinks the team will be fine with Happ, so he won't try to upgrade. That's why he fails.

  6. You’re right about getting caught up in stats. In regard to the concerns that Nico needs to be traded because he appears to be the most desirable player to trade. There’s a reason besides his numbers that other teams would want him. Great defender, has speed, really good bat to ball skills and maybe his most desirable trait is his leadership and burning desire to play the game. Maybe he doesn’t hit a ton of homers, but who cares. Trade him and you lose your heart and soul of the team. Who do they look to replace that, Happ?

  7. Excuses. The Astros (2022,2023) and Yankees won their LDS series despite having a multiple days off. If you are one of the best teams in the league, you have to find a way to win your playoffs series.

  8. Sam, good job w the DMurphy example… Another ex could be Nick Castellanos and his effect he had on the Cubs offense and entire team for that matter.. is there really a metric that would have truly reflected what he was worth to that Cub's team…

  9. Sam, what you laid out about the unquantifying factors needing to be considered is spot on. Our over reliance on stats is what's wrong with baseball right now. But, like many other baseball executives, Jed just doesn't get it. And I don't think he ever will. Replace him already!

  10. The Cubs fell short in several stats . BA with RISP , LOB , Blown saves , record in 1 run games . It's a shame that they got such terrific starting pitching and the bullpen and lack of clutch hitting and a sub par bench let them down . The Cubs spent the better part of the season screwing around with marginal talent like Madrigal , Mastrobuoni , Wisdom , Alzolay and a couple of others that there was never any hope for improvement over last season . The incompetent upper management , Hoyer in particular doomed the Cubs right from the start .

  12. The difference between Happ/Busch and Harper/Castellanos……..is defense. Defense is what put their WAR ahead of the Phillie duo. So, does this mean that defense is less important than hitting? Pretty sure it does.

  17. Thorougly enjoyed your perspective. The art of small ball has been lost. Bunting, advancing runners, using all fields. May not shoe up in WAR but wins games. Interesting, I've seen more of it in the playoffs, where winning seems more important than stats. Give me a Zobrist any day over Hoerner. It confounds me the Cubs haven't hired a Brett Butler type to teach PCA the art of bunting. He can't help much offensively with a .289 OBP and a bunt for a hit for him becomes 2B a couple pitches later. Thanks again Sam.

  19. the most important stats are swinging in hitter's counts vs taking pitches when it is 2-0 and you got a runner on 3rd and no one out. The Cubs will "grind" an AB and take strike one. Then panic and swing at the 2nd pitch. It's in the dirt. 0-2 now. What is the league batting avg at 0-2? It's about .135. Cubs are right there. You have to be aggressive. You have two ways to get rid of an opposing pitcher. High pitch count? Or score 5 in the first inning and knock him out. Here is the first paragraph of the Yankees win tonight on their page.
    KANSAS CITY – It took all of three pitches for the Yankees’ aggressive game plan to reveal itself. Gleyber Torres roped the contest’s first offering for a double, then raced home on Juan Soto’s single. With a trip to the American League Championship Series on the line, they couldn’t have asked for a better start.
    I rest my case. I'm tired of watching the team take 0-0 meatballs and 2-0 meatballs or crying about strike 3 that is 1 inch too low or high. Anything close, they teach you at 7 years old in little league. Swing the damn bat. The umps will pump you out every time unless you're Juan Soto and even he gets punched out sometimes.

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