The Bengals were just in a nearly identical situation as we were in on Monday night. Scored a TD to bring the margin within 1 with 38 seconds left in the game. Just like us, they were big underdogs on the road. Unlike us, they did go for 2. They didn’t get it. Even if they did, Lamar & company had time to go down and kick a game winning FG.
Having said all of that, I hate to appear to defend Bowles. Our defense is inexcusably bad and that’s on him. Even the early timeout call when Palmer didn’t get into the end zone was a head scratcher. I just got so tired of hearing about how he messed up by kicking the PAT, and with what just transpired in tonight’s game, I felt compelled to make this post.
16 comments
It’s hindsight bias. If we went for two and didn’t get it everyone would be digging on Bowles
I still think it depends on who the opponent is. We go for two, get it, then let Mahomes take the ball with 3(!) timeouts and time to just get a FG? I’m taking my chances on the coin toss as well. Elite QBs don’t need much.
Maybe it’s hindsight bias, but I’d find it easier to take losing by a failed 2 pt conversion instead of praying our defense could stop Mahomes at Arrowhead. As it played out, they could not.
This is my only response to anything regarding Bowles and his decision making: https://www.reddit.com/r/buccaneers/s/GJEo8tKnIV
You’re allowed to have balls in the NFL, it’s actually recommended. The play call sucked for the bengals and the missed 2 penalties was also tragic. However, at least their coach recognized the defense couldn’t make a stop and tried to end the game there.
Going for 2 vs the chiefs was the only proper decision, even if we’d missed it, how could you not respect the coach for having the stones to walk into the defending undefeated champs house and try to end it? Especially when your QB and OC are dealing and your defense is reeling (as usual)
Playing for OT sent a poor message to our offense about his faith in them when it mattered. I think that level of faith has to be actionably demonstrated during the season for the team to have the fortitude for any potential playoff run.
Plus like we just saw, refs don’t call shit during those plays. IIRC the success rate for 2-pt conversions this year is like 30%.
Never go for 2 with the game on the line. Such a low likelihood.
You gotta have some level of faith in your defense at that point to hold them to three. Or roll the dice and hope for the first drive. Either of those propositions are better than winning a game-on-the-line 2 pt conversion.
It’s an absolute no brainer on the road anywhere, but especially in KC.
Going for 2 succeeds less than 50% and with time on the clock, an elite qb like Mahomes or Lamar has a better than average chance of getting in FG range.
Going into overtime , it’s 50% chance to win the coin toss. It’s not a given you score, but it’s pretty likely against a worn down defense with a hot offense that just scored. As we’ve seen this year.
So I’m not sure either call is really better than the other. Statistically on math alone, the two point try is a slightly better option, but in real terms both work out at about the same rate. Given that, I think if it’s an average regular season game, go for two to end the game quicker. If it’s a big game, playoffs/seeding directly on the line, probably take your chances in OT.
the Bengals made the right decision even if it didn’t work out. both offenses were humming and whoever won the toss was going to score.
imo it’s better to just guarantee your offense gets a shot by going for 2 instead of risking the other team getting the ball.
I honestly think the best outcome for the Bucs at that point was to get the ball in OT and we march right in and win against an exhausted Chiefs defense.
If you guys forgot our 1st and goal play did not convert to a touchdown. 2 pt conversions aren’t a given.
It seems easier to gain two yards than win in overtime. I would ALWAYS go for two in that situation.
It’s far, far better to make this kind of decision and own it, outcome be damned. For one, there’s something to be said for putting your fate in the hands of your best players (in cincy’s case and ours, that’s the offense). Everyone knows nothing is a given in the NFL and chance.plays a huge role, so nobody worth listening to is going to MMQB this decision. Zac Taylor played to win. Bowles played not to lose. One inspires confidence, the other does not.
Offense it top 5 in most categories and defense is bottom 5 in most categories. The obvious choice was to lean on the better part of the team and go for it but Bowles still thinks and makes decisions like this teams strength is defense ( never going for any 4th downs is another area where this shows up ) .
Part of the problem with Bowles is he is slow to make adjustments and I suspect that also applies to evaluating his teams strengths and weaknesses .
Hopefully the team can get a W and be at .500 at the bye where we can get healthy and get ready for a much much much easier final 7 games
You said it yourself “the defense sucks”, so why give them the chance to hold/close the game? Try and finish with the offense, your odds are better.
We also forced a fumble on Kelce before the half and got no points, then got the ball to start the second half…. and got no points. We could have taken that game over early.