[THE SCORE] bluejays have 10 more wins hidden in their current roster
November 9, 2024
Wow… this is absolute garbage. “Our internal projections” tell us if we utilize our khakis even more we barely need to upgrade our team. There is no chance we go into the season with a worthy roster…. Embarrassing.
21 comments
Are these “wins” here with us now?
You say that, but wait till Soto and Alonso arrives 😉
Win???
I don’t know about 10, but between a return of Bo and some of the starters having the potential to do better, there is SOME reasonable room for improvement internally
Entirely off-topic, but I’m shocked a great writer such as Travis Sawchik (co-author of MVP Machine and author of Big Data Baseball) is writing for theScore.
How is this garbage? The article literally says that Steamer projections on Fangraphs has us projected to be basically 10 fWAR better based on bounce backs. It’s not farfetched to think their internal projection systems think the same. It doesn’t mean they’re not going to add to try and make the team better.
If everyone hits their max potential we can be third in the division!
You have to assume a lot, what if vlad gets hit by pitch,breaks hand ,out two months or berrios or gausman go down for a lengthy time,and on and on.
Talk to Ross and he’ll tell you there might even be 15 hidden wins in the current roster 🤫
The Jays are on Edmonton Oilers levels of delusion
He said something pretty similar (minus the quantification) last off-season. Responding to questions about how little they’d added to the offence, he said they were confident that the hitters would rebound from their offensive drop-off in 2023.
He was almost right, their hitting did change, but for the worse.
Nobody in this piece is saying “they don’t need to upgrade the team”
This is where we’re at now? lol
You know someone knows jack shit about ball when they mention khakis as a pejorative.
There were at least 15 where they had the odds in their favour to win after the 5th inning. There is a playoff team in there. A few more pieces and less regression, this team will make some noise.
So Atkins is already laying the groundwork for a do-nothing offseason.
It will take the Jays years to rebuild & recover from the damage Shapiro/Atkins have done to this franchise.
Fighting for 3rd in the division.
I “get” it- they’re counting on all of the young players to take leaps forward, and Bichette not to be broken, plus taking into account seasonal variability in the bullpen, which is likely due for some sort of return towards the mean.
The problem is, I think they’re full of shit.
Think about it:
You’re coming off a horrible season, and for the second straight year, the fanbase has called for your head. One of your two star players hasn’t been good in a calendar year (healthy or not), you have an aging former star weighing the club down, and you’re desperately hoping that your prospects- only two of which saw enough action and played well in it to reasonably assume they could be real- can pick up the slack.
Your bullpen was the worst pen ever in Jays history, and your rotation is one legit pitcher, two aging arms, a young promising possibility, and whatever Rodriguez is at this point.
Your response?
We’ve got hidden wins in our current lineup. Only enough to get us to around .500, but enough so that any lower-end talent that we sign “should”- on paper- get us to 90-93 wins.
As a fan of analytics, this sort of “nickel and dime and pray” shit infuriates me, because it’s not about winning: it’s about doing the least possible amount in order to say that you had a CHANCE to win, and allows you to shift blame from the exec to any player that doesn’t meet your internal expectations.
They’re not using analytics to win: they’re using analytics to protect their jobs.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are circling Juan fucking Soto a year after winning the World Series, and the Yankees are guaranteed to be extremely busy in the offseason to round that club into a team that can properly challenge the Dodgers
Anyone else see the disparity between the Jays and a serious contender?
When Atkins speaks, it reminds me of politicians being asked questions.
Never do we get a straight, direct answer.
Rambling double-speak full of buzzwords & deflection that amount to nothing more than a shitty non-answer.
21 comments
Are these “wins” here with us now?
You say that, but wait till Soto and Alonso arrives 😉
Win???
I don’t know about 10, but between a return of Bo and some of the starters having the potential to do better, there is SOME reasonable room for improvement internally
Entirely off-topic, but I’m shocked a great writer such as Travis Sawchik (co-author of MVP Machine and author of Big Data Baseball) is writing for theScore.
How is this garbage? The article literally says that Steamer projections on Fangraphs has us projected to be basically 10 fWAR better based on bounce backs. It’s not farfetched to think their internal projection systems think the same. It doesn’t mean they’re not going to add to try and make the team better.
If everyone hits their max potential we can be third in the division!
You have to assume a lot, what if vlad gets hit by pitch,breaks hand ,out two months or berrios or gausman go down for a lengthy time,and on and on.
Talk to Ross and he’ll tell you there might even be 15 hidden wins in the current roster 🤫
The Jays are on Edmonton Oilers levels of delusion
He said something pretty similar (minus the quantification) last off-season. Responding to questions about how little they’d added to the offence, he said they were confident that the hitters would rebound from their offensive drop-off in 2023.
He was almost right, their hitting did change, but for the worse.
Nobody in this piece is saying “they don’t need to upgrade the team”
This is where we’re at now? lol
You know someone knows jack shit about ball when they mention khakis as a pejorative.
There were at least 15 where they had the odds in their favour to win after the 5th inning. There is a playoff team in there. A few more pieces and less regression, this team will make some noise.
So Atkins is already laying the groundwork for a do-nothing offseason.
It will take the Jays years to rebuild & recover from the damage Shapiro/Atkins have done to this franchise.
Fighting for 3rd in the division.
I “get” it- they’re counting on all of the young players to take leaps forward, and Bichette not to be broken, plus taking into account seasonal variability in the bullpen, which is likely due for some sort of return towards the mean.
The problem is, I think they’re full of shit.
Think about it:
You’re coming off a horrible season, and for the second straight year, the fanbase has called for your head. One of your two star players hasn’t been good in a calendar year (healthy or not), you have an aging former star weighing the club down, and you’re desperately hoping that your prospects- only two of which saw enough action and played well in it to reasonably assume they could be real- can pick up the slack.
Your bullpen was the worst pen ever in Jays history, and your rotation is one legit pitcher, two aging arms, a young promising possibility, and whatever Rodriguez is at this point.
Your response?
We’ve got hidden wins in our current lineup. Only enough to get us to around .500, but enough so that any lower-end talent that we sign “should”- on paper- get us to 90-93 wins.
As a fan of analytics, this sort of “nickel and dime and pray” shit infuriates me, because it’s not about winning: it’s about doing the least possible amount in order to say that you had a CHANCE to win, and allows you to shift blame from the exec to any player that doesn’t meet your internal expectations.
They’re not using analytics to win: they’re using analytics to protect their jobs.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are circling Juan fucking Soto a year after winning the World Series, and the Yankees are guaranteed to be extremely busy in the offseason to round that club into a team that can properly challenge the Dodgers
Anyone else see the disparity between the Jays and a serious contender?
When Atkins speaks, it reminds me of politicians being asked questions.
Never do we get a straight, direct answer.
Rambling double-speak full of buzzwords & deflection that amount to nothing more than a shitty non-answer.
Time to trade the analyst.
Moooom, Ross is doing math again 🙁