Week 10 Recap

While many had already penciled in Week 10 as a loss, it was still incredibly deflating to watch Houston once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. For me personally, I was really feeling good about the game and optimistic going in, and as soon as we were up 23-7 early on, I got that foreboding feeling that tenured Texans fans know all too well…

Even so, the Texans remain comfortably in position for playoffs, and a few things did go their way last week, with the rest of the AFC South all losing too, as well as the Broncos and Jets.

Because of this, the Texans are realistically in the same position as last week for control of the AFC South, but have lowered their chances significantly at being one of the top AFC seeds.

Also, no matter what happens this week with any of the scheduled games, the Texans will remain the 4th Seed in the AFC after Week 11.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

Division Leaders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (8-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (Wildcard, 7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (Wildcard, 6-3)
7. Denver Broncos (Wildcard, 5-5)

Best possible position by end of week:

• 4th Seed

Worst possible position by end of week:

• 4th Seed

According to the NYT Playoff Calculator, if everything goes the Texans way this week, they would end the week with a 98% chance to make playoffs.

If everything goes against the Texans this week, they would end the week with a 83% chance to make playoffs.

Key Games

• Texans @ Cowboys (MNF)

• Desired Winner: Texans

We're going in to this game fresh off 2 demoralizing losses to the Jets and Lions. The hunger to get a decisive victory should be growing, and this week gives the team the perfect opportunity to do so.

The Cowboys have lost Dak Prescott, and have quickly found themselves near the very bottom of the NFC. Monday Night Football in Arlington will bring the 3rd week in a row of primetime eyes on the Texans, and this week we will likely see the return of Nico Collins, potentially welcome back Will Anderson, and have another week for the newly restructured offensive line to get in sync.

• Jaguars @ Lions

• Desired Winner: Lions

A Lions win would push an AFC South team down another notch, and give a Strength of Schedule boost to the Texans.

• Vikings @ Titans

• Desired Winner: Vikings

Almost a clone of the previous game, we want a win for the NFC North team we lost to in order to beat our AFC South opponent and get them further down the standings, as well as improve our strength of schedule.

• Falcons @ Broncos

• Desired Winner: Falcons

While the AFC South title is currently the Texans' for taking, it's not secured. If they drop the division lead, they'll be contending for a wildcard in a bottom-mid heavy AFC. The Broncos currently occupy the last wildcard spot, and a loss for them would be some added security for playoff chances.

• Colts @ Jets

• Desired Winner: Jets

The Colts are currently the Texans closest competition to take away the AFC South title this year. Any loss for them right now is huge for the Texans playoff chances, and if the Texans can get a win this week with the Colts losing, they would have a 6 game lead on the Colts, and hold the tiebreaker. With only 6 games left to play after this week, the advantage given by that setup would be huge.

Other Relevant Games

• Raiders @ Dolphins

• Desired Winner: Raiders

While both teams are far from looking primed for a playoff push, a Raiders win would put both teams at 3-7, which would be ideal for clearing more room for error in a potential Wildcard race.

• Rams @ Patriots

• Desired winner: Rams

Patriots, while a bit removed from the playoff hunt, are still technically in it. This is another one that opens up more room for error in a potential wildcard race.

• Browns @ Saints

• Desired Winner: Saints

Identical situation to the Patriots game above.

• Ravens @ Steelers
• Desired Winner: Toss-Up

This game will definitely impact playoff seeding, it's just hard to know exactly how at this point in time. This game will decide who is on top of the AFC North at the end of the week. If the Ravens end up with the lead on the AFC North, the Texans will have more direct control over potential Top 4 Seeding, as they play the Ravens and could secure a head-to-head tiebreaker. However, there's no telling where each of these teams will be record-wise in Week 18, and if the Texans will be looking at Division Leader seeding or Wildcard team seeding.

• Chiefs at Bills
• Desired Winner: Toss-Up

Both of these teams have been playing a level above the Texans, and neither look to be immediately challengable for seeding. The Chiefs are undefeated at 9-0, and the Bills are sitting at 8-2 with one of those 2 losses being to the Texans. A Chiefs victory would put them in a prime position to coast to a playoff bye, and would make the Bills potentially overtakeable for seeding. If the Bills were to win, it would make room for the option of dreaming about the Texans fighting their way to that 1 Seed and a playoff bye, but they'd have two teams sitting a bit above them rather than 1 clear one.

• Bengals @ Chargers
• Desired Winner: Bengals

The Bengals are currently at 4-6, and the Chargers are holding a wildcard spot at 6-3. A Bengals win would give additional room for error in a potential Wildcard race.

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Sunday Early Game: Redzone, Jaguars @ Lions, OR Vikings @ Titans
• Sunday Afternoon Game: Redzone, Chiefs @ Bills, OR Bengals @ Chargers
• Sunday Night Game: Colts @ Jets
• Monday Night Game: Texans @ Cowboys

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Cowboys
• Lions over Jaguars
• Vikings over Titans
• Falcons over Broncos
• Jets over Colts
• Raiders over Dolphins
• Rams over Patriots
• Saints over Browns
• Bengals over Chargers