I wrote up a detailed breakdown on Reid Detmers. This is the first "article" I have written, so please provide feedback if you have! It would be greatly appreciated. (TLDR at bottom, I know this is long)

Intro

From being the youngest pitcher to throw a no-hitter since 2006 to getting sent down midseason this past season, Detmers has had a rollercoaster of a career thus far. Let's look at his most recent season:

2024 Stats: 17 G / 4-9 / 6.70 ERA / 87.1 IP / 98 H / 109 Ks / 38 BBs / .282 AVG / 1.56 WHIP

According to traditional statistics, Detmers had a horrible year. Why would a team have any interest in him?

1) (Very) Statistically Unlucky

He has been one of the most statistically unlucky pitchers in all of baseball. For those unfamiliar with expected stats, basically they try to measure what is sustainable versus what happened, primarily based on quality of contact, not actual outcomes.

His expected stats are better than his regular stats across the board. This could result from horrible luck or LA's 3rd worst defensive WAR; It is probably a mix of both. See the chart below for a comparison between his actual and expected stats.

Traditional vs Expected Stats

Amongst Pitchers with 300 Plate Appearances Faced in 2024, he ranks 1st out of 186 pitchers in wOBA – xwOBA with a .053 difference (.370 wOBA – .317 xWOBA). If you expand the parameters to only 200 Plate Appearances, he ranks 1st out of 368 Pitchers. Additionally, Detmers ranked 9th out of 368 pitchers this year with a BABIP of .357, which is much higher than his career BABIP of .313, and even higher than his expected 2024 BABIP of .290!

Just based on expected stats, it is reasonable to assume Detmers at a minimum can be a league-average pitcher in 2025 and beyond.

2) Throw His Best Pitch More

Detmers is primarily a four-pitch pitcher, throwing a Four Seam, Slider, Curveball, and a Changeup. Here are his Stuff+ grades from '23 and '24. In parentheses are his usage rates for each pitch.

His slider is his best pitch by a landslide, yet in 2024 he only threw it 24.4% of the time. It should be closer to 40%. As a comparison, Chris Sale (who is obviously better), has a similar arsenal to Detmers, with a 96 grade FB and a 105 grade SL. Now Sale does have a ton of added deception with his funky cross-body delivery, but from a pure pitch standpoint, it is similar. Sale has seen a ton of success in his career by keeping his SL usage similar to his FB usage. If Detmers can follow suit and get his SL usage to ~40%, he will see more success right off the bat.

Hypothetically speaking, throwing it more should give him a bit more command of his SL, which would allow him to throw it more in all types of counts in and out of the zone. This would keep hitters from sitting on his FB. As it stands now, Detmers is just too reliant on his FB/CB early in counts (see below). If he can land his SL for strikes and increase his usage splits, he becomes a lot more unpredictable, which is rarely a bad thing as a pitcher.

Pitch Splits by Count Situations

3) Revert Back to a Lower Arm Slot

This visual from Savant below shows that his arm slot raised this season from 39 to 45 degrees.

https://preview.redd.it/bpdp96vd8x1e1.png?width=260&format=png&auto=webp&s=042e11c548dec183c6cfbfa5af0870bad748202a

I know it seems minuscule, but it has an effect on the movement of his pitches and the deception of the delivery and pitch. Detmers raised his arm slot this season to get more Vertical Break on his fastball. The results? On just his 4SFB, he saw decreases in Hard Hit % and xwOBA while increasing his K%, Whiff%, and PutAway%!

So why do I recommend he drop his slot back to what it was? For one, his fastball graded out marginally better in terms of Stuff+. As we see above, it improved from an 86 to an 87 in Stuff+. His run value dropped from -10 to -7 on it, which is still putrid.

However, the biggest change was his Curveball. The difference in results was pretty jarring:

https://preview.redd.it/p6l0pf2h8x1e1.png?width=251&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c931345476871407b2bef4146c9032ea2b31d66

I believe this is due to the added vertical movement on his fastball or the change in arm angle, which may make it easier for hitters to read out of his hand. When tunneled correctly it is a lethal combo; When tunneled poorly though, it will get hammered or spit on by any hitter with decent discipline.

Although going back to his previous arm slot would decrease his ~still~ poor Fastball (slightly), it would drastically improve his Curveball, turning it from a negative pitch back to a plus pitch. Likewise, it could also improve his slider grade increasing it from 118 Stuff+ back to 128 Stuff+.

4) Add a Sinker

Detmers would greatly benefit from a 2nd fastball. Below is a chart of his whiffs on his 4SFB. Notice how there are ZERO (0) whiffs on fastballs low in the zone? Adding a fastball that can compete low in the zone would add effectiveness to his 4-seamer up in the zone by keeping hitters from just sitting heater up.

https://preview.redd.it/ujfvl2hm8x1e1.png?width=304&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a7f61412855f4bbc314f625bd1f81ee02da1760

Focusing on just Left-Handed Hitters, here are his current fastball ranks against LHH: xwOBA: 27th percentile
Barrel Rate: 23rd percentile
GB Rate: 44th percentile

His fastball is effective up in the zone, but a sinker would increase his groundball rate and allow him to attack in on LHH and down against RHH. As it stands, he is a 3 pitch pitcher to lefties and struggles to get inside on them with any pitch (see below).

Heat Map showing all pitches in 2024 to LHH (important to note these charts are from the catchers point of view, meaning inside to a LHH is on the right)

Heat Map showing all pitches in 2024 to LHH (important to note these charts are from the catchers point of view, meaning inside to a LHH is on the right)

Left-handed hitters can pretty much eliminate the inside half of the plate against him, likely contributing to his higher xwOBA against lefties on all of his pitches compared to righties.

We do know it is possible to throw a sinker out of his previous arm slot, as New York Mets LHP David Peterson throws an effective sinker (10 Run Value) from a similar slot. All in all, adding a sinker gives him a more complete arsenal and adds a fastball that can be effective in all zones.

5) Convert to A Reliever

Should he continue to not see sustained success as a starter, he could be a candidate to make the transition to a reliever. Focusing on a heavy FB/SL approach in a 1 inning role could benefit him greatly. Not to mention in a reliever role, his SL usage can increase even more than 40%, which is definitely intriguing. He would not be the first pitcher to see success after failing as a starter!

Wrap Up

I am confident that with the right coaching, Detmers can fully realize his potential consistently, rather than in flashes. Based on expected stats alone, he should be at least a league-average pitcher. With some of the adjustments discussed in this breakdown, I believe he could reach the potential that teams envisioned when he was drafted 10th overall in 2020. I am certainly excited to see how he progresses in the future!

TLDR: Reid Detmers struggled in 2024, but bad luck, poor defense, and poor pitch utilization masked his potential. With adjustments to his pitch usage rates, tweaking his arm slot, or adding a sinker, he could break out as a reliable starter or dominant reliever in the right system.