Atlanta Braves Mailbag: Who Are Some Buy Low Candidates?

5 comments

1. Does Blake Snell's reported $182 million contract increase the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo?

   Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $73.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

   Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

   Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

   Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias creep into the equation? Over the three previous seasons Snell posted 9.9 fWAR in 83 starts covering 436.2 innings while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR in 91 starts covering 535 innings.

   A healthy Snell may well have the higher ceiling on a given day but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

2. Why would Braves not go all in? Reset the luxury tax when the team is NOT a contender. Our windows to win a championship is NOW. Not at some predetermined time in the future that we don't know when it is! Win now! We have the horses to do it.

3. For all those that keep saying that Soto's going to get $50-$60mil a year, it's likely never going to happen. Shohei Ohtani's AAV has been valued at $46.1mil per year due to inflation at when Ohtani's salary is actually being paid, 10 to 20 years from now in 2034 to 2043. Soto had a career year this year with a 8.1 fWAR, while Ohtani has average 9.1 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. Soto doesn't play good defense, so his bat is the only thing that produces any type of production for him, and though Soto's bat is equal to that of Ohtani's, Soto doesn't have the ability to run and steal bases like Ohtani. Then there's also the aspect that Ohtani can pitch. Even Aaron Judge who's a better player than Soto is only getting a $40mil AAV. People need to reel back their expectation on Soto, as he should never make more than both Ohtani or Judge, because he's likely never going to be as productive of either.

4. Hey jake. Your still doing a fantastic job all these years later keep up the great work

5. OK guys I wanna put one thing out here when we don’t know what the budget XV is for the Braves and if you take him at his word that the budget is going up OK then you add the fact with the default a lot of money and yeah, the fact that let’s be honest, let’s meet you for the chances are you’re gonna have two big time freezes next year coming off the books they’re not gonna be any Iglesias most likely And Ozuna most likely will not be back after this year you also have the fact you have $20 million coming in which is probably not gonna come back and if he comes back, he’s not that much so you can save money there plus when you had the fact that Fried made 16 million last year so this idea that the Braves cannot resign Max Fried and get them under the in the rice and then still make major moves after that is truly to me makes no sense. OK first of all even if Max bumps up to 35 million right that’s $21 million right on what he was making when you take the fact that you’re taking off Charlie Morton’s contract of his 20 million that’s only one more difference between the two which you could defer like I said some of that contract for other years past this year so if you think about it, you get you get him to say OK take $10 million off that contract and defer over to the next four years of the contract with the three year opt out for him it’s a brace structure to white way where they can give him a five year deal $35 million a year but a three year opt out and he defers 10 hours this year, which had actually bump it up the remaining four years of the contract which is about 2 1/2 me and me and our difference in the contract. That’s really only a $9 million bump in his salary. Then the fact that they cleared $60 million off the books anyway, before this.. plus if they go up, let’s say 10% of what they paid last year that put you up to about two they pop it up to 285. You’re gonna have an amount of money even with a $25 going towards max new contact . that you can use to go out add another starter if you choose to add a couple big-time big bullpen pieces get a big-time shortstop and even try to get a better upgrade it and let fill so let’s say this they get max back five years 35 million a year for 10 of it this year they sign let’s say walker Bueller signs to your deal for let’s say 16 per year with an after the first year, then you reap same AJ Minter on a three year deal for 30 million you go out and get like I said a Lucas sims for 2 /7 million and you can make a couple changes which I actually have a three team deal which truly will be a blockbuster which I think would help all three parties involved between the brave, blue jays and athletics. Which, which, by the way I believe with solve these issues where he would trade Iglesias nacho Alvarez and and that’s that send Rooker to the Blue Jays. The Braves would get Miller. And bichette to braves and athletics could get several prospects from the Braves and the Blue Jays, which is gonna help him towards the rebuild and then and then brave possible make trade with tigers in swap of out lf outfields braves get Parker meadows and braves send kelenic and player to be name later to tigers and I would even leave some money with the Braves could possibly either bring back either if not both whit Merrifield and cavin biggio depending what is out there for them then you could sign a bunch of relievers that are and arms that they do in the past and put them in AAA like a Kimbrel , and then you added the pieces to the team that can wear championship cause then by any day you have an hour of meadows Harris and acuna bichette Albie’s Olsen and Murphy, Dh. Ozuna a starting rotation of strider sale Fried, Lopez , Walker Bueller, and Spencer swellenback , bullpen up sims , Lee , Holmes , bummer , Johnson ,minter and miller , bench of merrifield ,trump , Allen , biggio