The Guardians are open to trade offers on first baseman Josh Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s unclear at this point which teams may be involved or if substantial offers have already been received.
The fact that the players are potentially available is not surprising. At the end of October, just as the offseason was getting going, MLBTR put both on our list of potential trade candidates for this winter. Like many lower-spending clubs, the Guardians are generally willing to consider trades of players as they get more expensive and their window of club control shrinks. These two players are just one year away from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Naylor for a $12MM salary and Thomas for $8.3MM.
Those are perfectly acceptable prices for those players but considering trades at this juncture is how clubs like the Guardians, Rays and Brewers operate. By consistently trading a year or two of a solid but somewhat expensive player for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives, the organizations stay continually well stocked with talent. That allows the clubs to stay fairly consistently competitive despite a lack of spending in free agency. The Guards have gone down this path before with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and others in previous years.
Naylor, 28 in June, has been a consistent spark in the Cleveland lineup for three years now. He doesn’t walk a ton but avoids strikeouts and has popped at least 17 home runs in each of the past three campaigns, including 31 in the most recent season. He has a combined .267/.330/.465 batting line over those three years for a 121 wRC+, indicating he was 21% better than league average in that stretch.
Defensively, the metrics have been fairly kind to him overall. With almost 3,000 innings of first base work under his belt, he’s produced 10 Outs Above Average. His mark of -4 Defensive Runs Saved is obviously less impressive but that metric had him above average before a -6 grade in 2024, which might be an odd outlier.
Putting the offense and defense together, plus a few steals here and there, Naylor has been worth about two or three wins above replacement per year in that stretch. For his salary, that should give him plenty of appeal this offseason.
The free agent market features some big-name first basemen like Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt, but each of those will be costly. Alonso and Walker are both lined up for nice multi-year deals and each of them also rejected a qualifying offer, meaning they are tied to the forfeiture of draft picks and maybe international bonus pool money as well. Goldschmidt didn’t get a QO and may be limited to a one-year deal because of his age, but there’s still plenty of risk in such an investment since he struggled a bit in 2024. For clubs that don’t want to pay those kinds of prices or simply miss out in the bidding there, they could give the Guardians a call.
Thomas, 29, likely has less appeal on the trade market. His projected salary is a little lower but his ability to contribute is also a bit narrower as he’s a right-handed hitter who is better against lefties. For his career, he has slashed .302/.366/.514 with the platoon advantage for a 140 wRC+, but .223/.290/.391 against righties for an 87 wRC+. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions, with the metrics considering him around league average in center.
The platoon splits suggest he would be best utilized in a part-time role, but the lack of center field options in free agency could work in his favor. Harrison Bader is the top of the free agent class as a solid defender but with a subpar bat.
There is risk in Cleveland subtracting bats, as their offense wasn’t their strongest asset in 2024. Their elite bullpen carried them to the postseason, with the team hitting a collective .238/.307/.395 for a 100 wRC+. It was even worse the year before, as they hit .250/.313/.381 in 2023 for a 91 wRC+ with the lowest home run tally in the majors. Removing Naylor or Thomas from the lineup would be a gamble but the Guards would have fallback options. Kyle Manzardo could take over for Naylor as an everyday first baseman while players like Will Brennan, Tyler Freeman or Ángel Martínez could take over in center.
Naturally, a trade coming together would depend on what other clubs are offering. For Thomas in particular, the Guards just gave up a three-player package to get him from the Nationals at the deadline, surrendering Alex Clemmey, José Tena and Rafael Ramirez. Clemmey was just drafted with a second-round pick in 2023 and given a $2.3MM bonus, so that was a significant sacrifice. They likely wouldn’t flip Thomas just to get anything in return.
The Guardians are reportedly looking into the outfield market and could use some help in the rotation as well, so there may be a bit of musical chairs happening here. Perhaps a trade of Naylor and/or Thomas could be used to add some young talent to the system, with the cost savings redirected to replacing some of the lost production on the major league roster. RosterResource projects the club for a $98MM payroll in 2025, right around where they were to start 2024.
Teams like the Royals, Reds, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles and others are reportedly looking for outfield help or make sense for a right-handed addition, while clubs like the Pirates, Tigers, Astros, Nationals, Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks and others could be looking for help at first base.