Man, this is unquestionably the highest volume of Cubs trade rumors I’ve had to follow since the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline. We’ve got Cody Bellinger rumors flying left and right (Mariners, Astros, Yankees), we’ve got Nico Hoerner rumors every single day (Mariners, Athletics), and we’ve got a constant inflow of Cubs trade rumors on starting pitchers.
Most recently, that’s revolved around White Sox ace Garrett Crochet. But in the background, no one can shake the feeling that Seattle’s crop of starting pitchers (and need for help along the infield) make the Mariners and Cubs ideal trade partners this winter.
But here’s the thing, just about every time I’ve brought up the Mariners starters, I’ve focused on the younger, cost-controlled guys.
George Kirby, 26, posted a 3.56 ERA over 33 starts last season with a 3.0% walk rate, 23% strikeout rate, and 96 MPH fastball. He’s controlled through 2028.
Logan Gilbert, 27, posted a 3.23 ERA over 33 starts last season, with a 27.4% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate, .194 AVG against, and 97 MPH fastball. He’s controlled through 2027.
Bryce Miller, 26, posted a 2.94 ERA over 31 starts last season, with a 6.4% walk rate, a 24.3% strikeout rate, .200 AVG against, and 95 MPH fastball. He’s controlled through 2029.
Bryan Woo, 24, posted a 2.89 ERA over 22 starts last season, with a 2.8% walk rate, 21.4% strikeout rate, .211 AVG against, and 95 MPH fastball. He’s controlled through 2029.
In all likelihood, neither Kirby nor Gilbert are realistic options for the Cubs. It’s not that they couldn’t afford the capital the Mariners would require in return – they could. But I just doubt the Cubs would be willing to part with what it should realistically take. Miller and especially Woo, then, have seemed like the more obvious targets. And yet, I may have missed the one they’re interested in all along.
Cubs Trade Rumors: Luis Castillo
On his latest episode of REKAP (full video below), David Kaplan confirms the Cubs’ interest in trading for a “high-impact” starter, name-checking the White Sox and Mariners, like everyone else. But unlike everyone else, Kaplan dropped a different Mariners starter of interest:
“Lot of rumors out there. I made some calls today, and there’s some smoke here, we’ll see if there’s fire. Cubs are reportedly looking at a high-end starting pitcher via trade – not in free agency – and are reportedly involved in trade talks with the White Sox on Garrett Crochet and the Mariners on Luis Castillo.”
OH YEAH, the Mariners OTHER excellent starting pitcher. Luis Castillo may not be as young or cheap as Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo, but he’s still very good.
Last season, Castillo, 31, earned a 3.64 ERA over 30 starts (175.1 IP). He had very solid strikeout (24.3%) and walk (6.5%) rates and was middling on contact management, but overall perfectly effective and valuable. As he has been throughout most of his career.
Some stats/facts since Luis Castillo’s first full season in 2018:
1,140.2 IP (6th most in MLB)
22.0 fWAR (8th most in MLB)
3.59 ERA (17th, min. 750 IP)
47.7% GB% (9th min. 750 IP)
And next season, STEAMER is currently projecting a 3.63 ERA over 31 starts and 184.0 IP. That’s pretty damn good for a projection, which is, by its very nature, conservative.
But that’s not to say there aren’t warts. There are.
For one, Castillo’s velocity last season continued a gradual decline that began in 2020:
2020: 97.6 MPH
2021: 97.3 MPH
2022: 97.1 MPH
2023: 96.4 MPH
2022: 95.7 MPH
He’s down two full clicks from his peak, and at 31 years old, you don’t really expect that to recover (insert your jokes here about him fitting into the Cubs rotation even better with his lower velocity).
There’s also the fact that he’s due $22.75M over each of the next three seasons ($68.25M total) plus a conditional option for 2028 at $25M depending on the health and innings total Castillo reaches in 2027. It’s not a crippling contract, but it is pricey.
So how would this work? Well, maybe one way is if the money is somehow offset with Cody Bellinger, who’s making a good chunk of change with an option of his own at the end of the year. I had been so focused on swapping Nico Hoerner and/or prospects for one of the younger, cost-controlled guys that I didn’t realize the potentially simpler fit with Castillo and Bellinger. I don’t think – at all – this would be as simple as a one-for-one swap (it rarely is). But I don’t have to squint too hard to see this making sense.
The Mariners are looking for help all along the infield, including the infield corners, where Cody Bellinger could play first.
I don’t want to put words into Kap’s mouth, because he didn’t mention anything about the Bellinger piece, I’m just connecting dots on my own.
In any case, this woke me up a bit. It’s time to widen the lens a bit on whom the Cubs could be targeting. Because from Seattle, it’s at least possible that Luis Castillo could be the guy, not Bryan Woo, etc.