As selection day nears, the College Football Playoff committee will have to make tough decisions, no matter the results of this weekend. Alabama getting in over SMU if the Mustangs lose to Clemson has been the main talking point this week, but there are other decisions that will impact teams’ paths to a national championship.
And for the record, my Playoff algorithm believes that SMU would be likely to get the bid over Alabama, doing so in about 85 percent of my simulations.
But how would the committee handle Penn State and Georgia losses? Will Notre Dame jump Penn State? Would that mean Ohio State jumps Penn State because of its head-to-head victory? Maybe the Buckeyes jump Georgia as well. And would Georgia fall below Tennessee?
While I don’t necessarily agree with penalizing a team for losing in an extra game — though whether that game is competitive matters — debate will surround these decisions long after the bracket is set.
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How much does the CFP committee punish losing a conference title game?
I can look at these specific scenarios with my College Football Playoff projections model and see how a team’s national championship odds would be affected. Could the No. 5 seed have a more favorable path than the No. 1 seed despite an extra game? Alabama looms as a possible No. 11 seed, so does that mean the seventh seed is preferable to the sixth?
How much will seeding matter?
Let’s use the Big Ten title game between No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State on Saturday night as an example of all that is still on the line depending on how conference championships play out and how the selection committee reacts.
Penn State is ranked No. 3 in the committee’s rankings, ahead of Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State and Tennessee. What happens if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon in the Big Ten title game to fall to 11-2? I believe there are two parts to this. First, would James Franklin’s squad actually benefit from losing? And second — which maybe answers the first — would Penn State fall below Notre Dame and/or Ohio State?
I believe that if the Big Ten title game is competitive, the committee will not penalize the Nittany Lions much — certainly not enough to fall below Ohio State. However, if that were to happen, let’s see how drastic the change would be.
If Penn State were to beat Oregon, my projections have it winning the national championship 13 percent of the time. If the Nittany Lions lose, I have them at 10 percent. Maybe it’s not as big of a deal as you might think — Oregon, Texas and Ohio State are the only teams with national title odds above 10 percent as of Friday— but there are certain scenarios where it would indeed be beneficial for Penn State to be the No. 5 seed. Just look at the bracket based on Tuesday’s rankings:
Would you rather be No. 1 seed Oregon and have a bye but play the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee? Or would you rather be No. 5 seed Penn State and play Arizona State (at home) and Boise State? Meanwhile, No. 6 Notre Dame is stuck hosting No. 11 Alabama before playing SMU.
If UNLV upsets Boise State and Penn State were slotted in as the No. 5 seed, a first-round game against the Rebels would put the Nittany Lions’ title odds at 13 percent. But if Clemson were to beat SMU and end up as the No. 12 seed, Penn State’s odds would drop to somewhere between 10 and 11 percent. And what if Texas were to lose to Georgia or Penn State drops below Notre Dame and is the No. 6 seed facing No. 11 seed Alabama in State College? Its odds would drop to 7 percent.
That’s a long-winded way of saying that while there is a possibility of an easy path to the semifinal by losing the Big Ten championship, it’s not a given because of the chance that a loss results in Penn State falling below the No. 5 seed. My projections, as it stands right now, believe that Penn State — and Oregon, though, not as significantly — would benefit from winning the Big Ten championship. But the fifth seed might not be a bad place to be.
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Ranking conference championship games by Playoff implications
Could a conference title game loser lose a home game?
Notre Dame is going to host a first-round game, and the Big Ten title game loser should do so as well. Ohio State appears to be locked into a home Playoff game, too, as it is ranked ahead of Tennessee. Based on comments by selection committee chairman Warde Manuel on Tuesday, there’s no reason to believe teams that are idle this weekend will flip with each other. As of the penultimate rankings, Ohio State would be the No. 8 seed hosting No. 9 seed Tennessee.
But does Tennessee still have a chance at a home game? The nightmare scenario for Georgia — which is ranked No. 5 in the Top 25 ahead of No. 6 Ohio State and No. 7 Tennessee — is getting blown out by Texas in the SEC title game and falling two spots, below both the Buckeyes and Volunteers, to No. 7 in the rankings, making it the No. 9 seed in the bracket.
To be clear, my model doesn’t think this will happen, though maybe that’s a flaw in the algorithm. But Georgia falling enough to lose a home Playoff game to a team it beat convincingly in the regular season because it had to play an extra game against the No. 2 team in the country would mean the system is flawed. If Georgia were to lose and fall below Tennessee, its national title odds would drop by about 2 percentage points.
Maybe not likely this year, but an 8 vs. 9 scenario like this could easily come into play in the future.
Who will get the first-round byes?
Remember, first-round byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions. The Big Ten (Oregon or Penn State) and SEC (Texas or Georgia) are guaranteed to get two of the byes based on how the rankings have played out. That leaves two byes for the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West champions. (Tulane losing to Memphis last week likely knocked the AAC out of consideration.)
Here are the odds for teams earning first-round byes, according to my model, factoring in their chances of winning their conference championship games:
First, my model doesn’t believe UNLV can receive a bye, meaning it is in line to be the No. 12 seed if it upsets Boise State.
My favorite scenario is Clemson beating SMU and Boise State beating UNLV. If that were to happen, my model slots Boise State in as the No. 3 seed, the Big 12 champion (Arizona State or Iowa State) as the most-likely No. 4 seed and Clemson as the No. 12 seed, perhaps creating a tougher draw for the No. 5 seed than expected.
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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Bracket odds entering conference title games
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)