Obligatorily reiterating at the top: I stand by the idea that dumping Cody Bellinger just to do it, without ACTUALLY repurposing those funds in a very impactful way and/or without ACTUALLY getting a meaningful return, is a mistake. But if the Cubs are “determined” to trade him no matter what, then I just have to hope the market shakes out such that they can get the best deal possible, and they don’t take a junk deal.
To that end, I was heartened to read in Bob Nightengale’s round-up today that there was at least one highly-undesirable (in my view) swap that the Cubs seemed not to be interested in pursuing. Immediately after talking about how much the Cubs want to trade Bellinger and how untradable his contract is (it’s not that ridiculous – you saw the Tyler O’Neill deal, right?), Nightengale talks about the Jordan Montgomery situation in Arizona. Emphasis mine:
“When your boss calls you one of the worst decisions in his baseball career and is angry that you opted back into your contract at $22.5 million, you don’t need a therapist to know that you’re not wanted. The Diamondbacks are shopping him everywhere. They tried to get the Cubs interested in a swap for Bellinger. So far, they’re striking out, but considering the soaring price of pitching, and the brilliance he showed on the Texas Rangers’ World Series championship team, there’s a better shot of snow flurries in Phoenix next summer than Montgomery wearing a D-backs uniform.”
Bellinger is owed $27.5 million in 2025, then either $25 million in 2026 or a $5 million buyout if he opts out. So the best case for an acquiring team is that they’d pay $32.5 million for one very good year from Bellinger (i.e., he doesn’t opt out unless it’s a very good year), or $52.5 million for any other range of outcomes (which could include one decent year and one great year, just for the record).
Montgomery is owed only $22.5 million for 2025, so a swap would save the Cubs $5 million for 2025, plus anywhere from $5 to $25 million the following year. It’s a meaningful financial difference, though it’s important to reiterate that the low end of savings is just $10 million potentially spread across two years.
Is that savings enough to actually swap these players? Looooooord no.
Consider that Bellinger took a step back in 2024. What that looked like is a good defender at all outfield spots and first base, who runs the bases well, who doesn’t strike out, and who hit .266/.325/.426/109 wRC+ at age 28/29. He hit .282/.347/.451/117 wRC+ on the road, too, which bears mentioning after a season where Wrigley was especially hard on lefties.
When Montgomery took a step back in 2024, his age-31 season, it wasn’t just a slightly-less-great-player situation. It was an unplayable situation. His 6.23 ERA was the literal worst in all of baseball among pitchers who reached the 100-inning threshold.
The risk calculus on each side of this equation is just not even remotely close to balanced. So a one-for-one swap would be an absolutely bonkers way to save a little money, completely disregarding Bellinger’s actual value.
Now, to be clear, on a super-cheap one-year deal, I don’t actually think Jordan Montgomery is a bad bounce-back opportunity. On the right deal, where the Diamondbacks are eating a ton of salary just to dump him, it’s a conversation worth having. The guy was consistently quite good for the years preceding 2024, and giving how messed up his offseason was and his start to his time with Arizona, he’s probably a decent candidate. Probably not for the Cubs, but for some team. Maybe if the Cubs hadn’t already landed Matthew Boyd, I’d be more into it? As it stands, I’m not sure they’re the best fit. Some team will want him.
HOWEVA, his value is not the same as Cody Bellinger, even on their current contracts. That’s just silly. And I’m glad to hear that, however motivated the Cubs seem to be to unload Bellinger, they aren’t THAT desperate.