Do the Recent Luis Castillo Rumors Mean the Mariners Have Changed Course?
It’s Mailbag Monday! Does the Boston Globe’s recent report that the Mariners are open to listening to offers on Luis Castillo mark a change of plans for the team this winter? Ty and Colby answer that and much more.
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10 comments
Very excited for this upcoming season. Got tickets for the whole opening weekend!
Hit up the Mets and ask for acunia since he's blocked by Jeff and Mark and definitely not starting at ss
If I were to trade one guy from the rotation it would be Luis
Black Hole Sun for Justin Turner has to be up there in the top 5
O's should offer: Mountcastle, Povich, and Fabian/Beavers for Miller
Seattle is stuck with Castillo and his cost!
Huh? Why say you have doubts that Castillo would waive his no-trade to join the Cubs? When has playing in Chicago at Wrigley ever not been attractive for players? I get that they can always have different reasons for wanting to stay somewhere or not go to specific places (there's usually no way of knowing), but why even name drop nixing only Chicago and not Boston or any of the other rumored teams? The Cubs are not in any worse position than the Mariners or even the Red Sox – those 3 teams are actually pretty comparable when you look at recent results of coming up just short of making playoffs, current trajectory, and great farm systems…
‘22-‘23 everytime La Piedra hit the mound I expected 7 innings of 1 or 0 run ball with 8-10 Ks and he delivered on that so often. In ‘24 though, he was not that dude. The only pitcher I felt less sure of last year was Hancock. I’m fine if we trade him. Just not in the AL.
Also Gerrit Cole got 9 year 324 million age 30 season
All of your Castillo comps are guys with a trajectory pointed up at the time of signing. Castillo is firmly pointing down. He would not be getting 27-30M a year.
Carlos Rodon is not a comp. He put up 11.3 fWAR in 318 innings over his previous 3 years prior to signing, 11.2 of that coming in 2 years because he pitched just 7 innings in the 3rd year. He was the 6th best pitcher in baseball over that span. Thats about 50% better than Castillo if you adjust his innings to match over his last 3 years.
Aaron Nola put up 14.6 in 579 innings and was the 4th best pitcher in baseball during that span. Thats about 30% better than Castillo if you adjust his innings to match over his last 3 years.
Tyler Glasnow has had a history of injuries but he's been damn near twice as good as Castillo when he is on the mound over the last 2 seasons. His baseball savant page looks like Castillo's when he was in his prime.
Castillo comps are more like Sonny Gray (23% better) or Jordan Montgomery (9% better). You could maybe squint and see him get $25M/yr, but hes probably pretty damn close to market value. And both Gray and Montgomery entered the market on high notes. Castillo would be entering with 2 straight years of regression, back to back years of sub 40% ground ball rate for a guy that in the past was around 50, his second worst season of his career, a velocity dip, second lowest K rate in his career, and second highest HR rate in his career, in back to back seasons, in a park that suffocates offense.
Montgomery is probably the most bang on comp you could come up with. His 2023 baseball savant page looks like a mirror of Castillo's 2024. Their 3 year performance prior to signing is pretty damn close to identical. He and Boras went into the offseason completely overblowing his value thinking he was going to sign some 5+ year deal like you are thinking Castillo could somehow command and the market said fat chance and he wound up with 2 years at $23.75M/yr. Some how you glossed over him in your research and comp'd Castillo to pitchers that blow Castillo out of the water when they are on the mound.