Everybody on Nevada football’s roster might be entering the transfer portal, but here I am, writing almost 5,000 words in this week’s Murray’s Mailbag yet again while not testing the waters of sports journalism. While it’s disheartening to know how transactional college sports has become, you can count on me every Monday giving decent analysis, writing bad jokes and throwing in a couple of typos every Monday. Thanks, as always, for the questions. Let’s roll.
In October, I took the under on 3.5 Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament when most people would have taken the over after the conference went six, four and four to the last three Big Dances. I projected three teams in the NCAA Tournament, and I’ll stay with that number, although the MW had a pretty terrible week last week with losses to Washington State (twice at home), Loyola Marymount and New Mexico State from its potential tournament teams. Nevada was responsible for two of those. The league also took lopsided losses to Colorado (from Colorado State) and Creighton (and UNLV) last week. Some of the MW’s better teams also struggled against some of the league’s lower-level teams last week in the first wave of conference games, which some analysts observed to be a sign of the bottom of the league being stronger. I observed it as a sign the top of the league isn’t as good as last year.
The NET rankings came out last Monday, and here is where the five teams with realistic NCAA Tournament at-large hopes this season debuted and where they are one week later.
Utah State — 14 to 20
Nevada — 32 to 58
Boise State — 38 to 46
San Diego State — 60 to 41
New Mexico — 66 to 86
That’s an averaging starting spot of 42 compared to this week’s 52.2 with only one team in the top 40, which is usually the lock point for an at-large berth. It was a bad week and there aren’t a ton of non-conference opportunities left to improve things, but I’ll stick with three teams in the tournament for now. The conference NET is still sixth in the nation, one better than last season, and there are more high-quality wins in non-conference this season compared to last year, but also more bad losses. Overall, things are definitely not as rosy from a conference perspective as a season ago.
That’s a tough question, but I’ll go with New Mexico, which was picked to finish second in the Mountain West preseason poll behind Boise State and ahead of Nevada. New Mexico has a Quad 4 loss (to NMSU) while Nevada (to LMU) and Boise State (to Boston College) both have Quad 3 losses. The feather in the cap of Boise State and New Mexico is they both have wins over Top 25 teams that could mean a lot in March with the Broncos beating Clemson (16th) and Lobos beating UCLA (24th). Those are both Quad 1 wins. Nevada tops out with Quad 2 victories over VCU (NET 68) and Oklahoma State (NET 85), so I might rather than the résumés of Boise State and New Mexico at this point. The Lobos also allegedly had one player punch another, so that is additional fuel for New Mexico having the most disappointing start among that trio.
And now we’re onto Nevada. The Wolf Pack’s decline post-Charleston Classic has been head-scratching. Here are the game scores (out of 100) Nevada posted in its first seven games — 83, 87, 93, 99, 71, 85 and 94. And here are the last two games scores for Nevada — 26 and 26. One game might be an anomaly. Two is a problem. And after criticizing his team’s practices leading into the Washington State game, the thought was Nevada would be fully locked in for its next game against LMU. But the Wolf Pack actually played worse in that one. The simple answer is Nevada’s offense has fallen apart. The Wolf Pack scored 119.3 points per 100 possessions in its first seven games and has been at 93.4 the last two. The defense has been a little worse but not that much worse. The Wolf Pack went from shooting 46.6 percent shooting from three in those first seven games to 22.5 percent in the last two.
Can Nevada get an NCAA Tournament at-large bid?
Yes, but the margin is significantly thinned. The Wolf Pack probably needs to go 2-0 in its last two non-league games (Wednesday against South Dakota State is no lock) plus 17-5 between the regular season MW games and conference tournament to get an at-large bid. There will still be Quad 1 and Quad 2 chances in MW play, but not as many as previous years. If the Wolf Pack does what we have above, that’s 25-7 and probably enough for an at-large bid. VCU or Oklahoma State playing those games in a Quad 1 result would be big. If Nevada had lost to VCU, I would say the Wolf Pack’s at-large chances would be dashed. That was a huge win. But first and foremost, Nevada must get back on track because the level of play we’ve seen the last two games would mean a .500 record in MW play and no postseason.
I’ll set the projected win total at 25. Nevada got into the field with 24 wins in 2022-23 with no Quad 1 non-league wins and only two Quad 2 non-league wins (basically this year’s non-league résumé without the Quad 3 loss). But that was a historically weak bubble.
Too many games left to say Nevada can’t get an at-large berth given the relative strength of the Mountain West. Now, if Nevada did this in the post-2026 MW without opportunities in league against San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State, we could rule the Wolf Pack out from at-large contention. That will make Nevada’s non-conference schedule and results even more important in two years.
I don’t think Nevada would accept a CBI bid in its current cycle in the program. NIT, yes. Obviously the goal remains the NCAA Tournament, which is doable if the Wolf Pack returns to the form from its first seven games. No. 1 Kansas just lost back-to-back games against unranked teams, so stuff happens during a season. It’s how you rebound that matters.
Getting to the free throw line would help. Nevada can bog down offensively if it doesn’t get to the free throw line. Through its first seven games this season, the Wolf Pack was No. 2 in the nation in fouls drawn per offensive possession. Nevada has not gotten to the free throw line the last two games with free throw rates of 22.8 percent against Washington State and 35 percent against LMU. The Wolf Pack’s free throw rate — free throws attempts divided by field-goal attempts — in wins is 54.5 percent; its free throw rate in losses is 25.4 percent. When you don’t foul Nevada, the Wolf Pack can struggle to score as we’ve seen in its losses. Nevada needs to get to the free throw line consistently to be an above-average offensive team because I don’t think the 3-point shooting we saw in the first seven games was sustainable long term.
There’s an obvious adjustment going from the third scoring option on a team like Nick Davidson was last year to the first option (along with Kobe Sanders) like he is this season. The defense prepares for you differently. And Davidson is obviously the driving factor on this team. In Nevada wins, he’s scoring 18.3 points per game on 66 percent shooting. In Nevada losses, he’s shooting 6.7 points per game on 24.1 percent shooting. Credit him with being aggressive against LMU, but he did force some things and was not getting a whistle (as noted above, getting to the foul line is key for him and the team). Davidson made the key plays down the stretch in the win over VCU, so I don’t think you can say Davidson can’t be “the guy” on an NCAA Tournament team. But he’s adjusting to defenses throwing different stuff at him. That doesn’t happen overnight. If he grows through those struggles and gets to a Mountain West player of the year level, Nevada will be fine. But the Wolf Pack needs that level from Davidson and Sanders. And Davidson is not the only player to struggle of late. Tre Coleman is 7-of-31 (22.6 percent) the last four games after starting 16-of-34 (41.7 percent), so it can’t all be pined on Davidson. Xavier DuSell has not brought the punch the Wolf Pack was hoping for offensively.
This is also why I said in a Monday Mailbag a couple of weeks ago you can’t put the Davidson-Sanders duo over last year’s pairing of Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear yet. It’s a long season with ups and downs.
I do think Steve Alford made a mistake against LMU by going back to his starters after his bench, led by Justin McBride, got Nevada back in that game against the Lions. The Wolf Pack went small with Nick Davidson at center and took Brandon Love, who was playing well, off the court down the stretch. What was essentially the game-winning bucket was scored by Jevon Porter over Davidson in a post mismatch. Here’s what Alford said after the game.
“I’m proud of the bench,” Alford said. “I thought our bench worked hard and tried to do what we wanted to do both offensively and defensively. That’s why it’s probably time for some changes. You have to shake it a little bit when you’ve lost two in a row. I’m really proud of (the bench). To be down (19) and get us back to a tied game and take the lead by one, and then we come back with the regulars and we lose the last four-minute game, it’s frustrating. But you have to be able to handle the heat and handle the pressure of the situation, and we’re just not doing that right now. We’ve got to figure out how to do that. Our bench really gave us a spark tonight, and I’m proud of them.”
As for K.J. Hymes, he does get a lot of criticism in Mailbag questions, but he’s a perfectly fine backup center, which is his current role. He tallied 10 points and six rebounds on 4-of-7 shooting in 19 minutes against LMU. He was one of Nevada’s best players in that game.
I don’t think it messed with the chemistry, but it definitely changed the rotation. Chuck Bailey III got one minute against LMU after playing double-digits minutes in the previous six games, including a season-high eight points in a season-high 16 minutes against Washington State. There will be some tinkering for Wednesday’s South Dakota State game. I would not be surprised if you saw Tyler Rolison or Justin McBride, if not both, start that game, and Bailey deserves some minutes. But Daniel Foster will get his playing time. Nevada’s staff has shown over the years how much it values his intangibles.
Nevada has been a slow-paced team the last three seasons with KenPom tempos of 246 (2022-23), 235 (2023-24) and 348 (this season). Yes, this season is even slower than the last two, which is a little surprising given the team’s depth and improved athleticism. But Nevada’s teams under Steve Alford have not been super athletic teams. That’s not been his formula, so it makes sense to run a slower tempo. I wouldn’t mind Nevada speeding up a little and playing more press defense to get the energy up from the start, but that’s not how the Wolf Pack has played under Alford, and the slower pace has worked fine the last two seasons. You might see a little more pace to try and shake things up, but this is not going to be an up-and-down team.
I wrote about the tempo above, but I do think it’s funny I was defending Kenan Blackshear a couple of Mailbags ago in comparison to Kobe Sanders and now people are longing for Blackshear. Both are obviously very good players, but there are ebbs and flows in a season with Nevada’s more role-oriented players last season not being counted on to be the closers. It worked against VCU, but not so much in the other games. Sanders and Nick Davidson should be this team’s closers, though.
Devil magic is only allowed to be used by the Kansas City Chiefs. What a “mid” 12-1 team. But Vanderbilt did show the formula on how to beat Nevada — pressure defense without fouling (and hope Nevada misses its 3-pointers as you’ve seen some teams zone the Wolf Pack in the last two games). If you think things are dire now, the Wolf Pack is that last-minute comeback against VCU away from being 1-4 in its last five. A reminder Nevada went through a 1-4 stretch last season before winning 10 of its next 11. “Ebbs and flows” is the theme of this Mailbag.
1. Brendon Lewis 67-yard touchdown run against Oregon State
2. Kaden Johnson’s sack on Troy’s game-tying 2-point conversion attempt
3. Kitan Crawford pick-six against Oregon State
4. Lewis’ 17-yard touchdown run against Boise State
5. Nate Burleson II’s 46-yard touchdown catch against Fresno State
Chad Brown’s interception at Boise State would have made the list if it was not reversed. That was a hell of a play.
While I included a proposed Mackay Stadium renovation in my coverage of the major investment the Wolf Pack is planning for football, it’s worth noting that’s way down the line if it ever happens. The first priority was getting approval to move forward with student funds for an indoor practice facility (which was accomplished). The next thought is if Nevada invests in football ($50 million over the next 10 years) and becomes a championship-caliber program that is sustained, a “New Mackay Stadium” could be created. But that’s a $150 million renovation plus a $70 million football facility. As such, I would not plan on a new football stadium or renovated Mackay Stadium in the next decade at least. Mackay underwent a $15 million renovation in 2016 and still owes on that loan, so nothing is imminent with the stadium.
Investing into Wolf Pack men’s basketball has been more attractive for a couple of reasons, including:
1) There a legitimate pathway to a national title in basketball
2) Basketball has had huge amounts of success over the last 25 years
3) A $1 million donation goes a long way in basketball; it does not in football
Nevada football has not captured the imagination of the Wolf Pack’s donors by winning games, which is the biggest issue in the relative lack of high-money donations (alums Mike Crawford, through ITS Logisitcs, and Joel Bitonio have both donated $1 million in recent years). But an average MW football budget is $18 million; an average MW basketball budget is $4.5 million. Major difference in elevating a program. You need tens of millions of dollars in donations to lift football in what can be achieved with $1 million to $2 million annual donations in men’s basketball.
I did a full breakdown of that in a Mailbag last month, so I’ll just copy and paste here:
According to College Football Playoff website:
* A conference will receive $4 million for each team that makes the College Football Playoff (12 schools) and each team that advances to the Playoff Quarterfinals (eight schools).
* A conference will receive $6 million for each team that advances to a Playoff Semifinal (four schools) and each team that advances to the national championship game (two schools).
* Each conference whose team participates in the College Football Playoff will receive $3 million to cover expenses for each round.
So, the money goes to the conference, which can then distribute it however it’d like. Since the Mountain West spreads the NCAA Tournament money evenly, I assume it would do the same with CFP money. The new Pac-12 agreed to give 50 percent of the money to the earning team and 50 percent to the conference, which is a major difference from the MW’s formula.
If Boise State is one-and-done and the Mountain West evenly splits the money without the conference taking a share, it’d be an extra $363,636 for Nevada.
Per the Mountain West handbook, “After receiving a Notice of Resignation from a Resigning Member, all payments due to that Resigning Member from the Conference shall be withheld and shall offset and be applied to that Resigning Member’s Exit Fee. The balance of such Resigning Member’s Exit Fee, as provided above, shall be paid by the Resigning Member to the Conference by wire transfer of immediately available funds to an account specified by the Conference on or before the Effective Date.”
So, yes, according to that handbook, the annual conference distribution, which includes CFP money, would be withheld from the league’s five departing teams (Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Utah State) as the down payment on the roughly $18 million each of those schools owe the conference when they leave for the Pac-12 in summer 2026.
Yes, if SMU lost to Nevada — the Wolf Pack was up by 11 with less than 9 minutes remaining — the Mustangs would not be in the College Football Playoff. So, Nevada basically kept Alabama out of the playoffs this year.
Chris Ault is barred from talking to the media about the details of him serving on the College Football Playoff selection committee, so he can’t give a behind-the-curtains look at what it’s like to be in that room. I do see him at Nevada football practice from time to time and gave him gruff for the committee leaving undefeated Florida State out of the four-team playoff last year and joked how hard it would be for him to put UNLV in the playoff this year (that obviously never came to pass). I do know he considers this a perfect way to cap his long legacy in college football and is thankful for the opportunity.
Per my AP Top 25 ballot over the weekend, my bracket would have been:
No. 1 Oregon (bye) vs. winner of No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Tennessee
No. 2 Georgia (bye) vs. winner of No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 3 Boise State (bye) vs. winner of No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 4 Arizona State (bye) vs. winner of No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Clemson
The actual bracket is:
No. 1 Oregon (bye) vs. winner of No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Tennessee
No. 2 Georgia (bye) vs. winner of No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 3 Boise State (bye) vs. winner of No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 SMU
No. 4 Arizona State (bye) vs. winner of No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Clemson
So, our top-four seeds were the same, but the committee screwed Oregon by giving the Ducks a potential quarterfinal against Ohio State. The committee also had Texas too high. In terms of changes, I would have gone with an eight-team bracket instead of 12. And if you’re going with 12, make the quarterfinals home games for the higher seed. Plus, reseed after the first round, so there’s a plus to getting the highest seed.
Yes, the Mountain West will still be an FBS conference in 2034 as long as the Power 4 doesn’t break away. The MW will stick in the same group as the Pac-12, Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA and AAC. It will be a watered-down version of the current MW, more akin to the MAC. But it will exist in the ecosystem. And I actually think exiting in this new MW could help the Wolf Pack in fundraising/attendance as Nevada should compete for more conference championships while being around lesser competition, which could increase interest.
It just depends on the hire. Boise State had a breakthrough moment and kept hiring good coaches who built upon the previous success. UNLV could do the same thing. Or the Rebels could make a misstep and fall back to the dregs of college football. There’s at least some momentum there to build upon when it hires a replacement for Barry Odom. Five candidates to watch include:
* UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion
* Ex-Boise State/Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin
* Montana State head coach Brent Vigen
* Ex-Mississippi State/Florida head coach Dan Mullen
* Ex-Utah State/Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells
UNLV obviously has stronger intel on Marion than me and should know whether he’s ready to run a program. Otherwise, Harsin and Vigen seem like good fits. You can also toss in Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez, USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, former Stanford coach David Shaw and Penn State defensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. It’s an attractive job, and it’d be risky to pick somebody who doesn’t have head-coaching experience, but that’s also where the highest reward might be.
Tough to say without knowing who UNLV’s head coach is and what happens in the transfer portal, but I’d go with UNLV at this stage. Nevada is losing a lot of talent off this year’s roster, both via graduation and the portal (11 players in there already).
Let me see who UNLV hires, but the Rebels have a sizable enough head start on the Wolf Pack that I’ll stick with that for now. I wasn’t going to pick Nevada to win in Las Vegas in 2026, so it was 2025 or 2027 in last week’s projection, and I didn’t see the Wolf Pack having the firepower to win next season’s game.
Barry Odom will obviously get a lot more money from Purdue than UNLV, but the question is whether Odom could have gotten a better Power 4 job if he waiting another year or two. And I think the answer is “yes.” Purdue is bottom-five job in the Big Ten (there are 18 schools in the conference), but perhaps Odom thought he hit a high point with this UNLV program, which was losing a ton of talent this offseason. If UNLV went back to a six-win team next season, his window for a jump to the Power 4 could have closed. So, I don’t blame him for making the move. But for a head coach who failed to succeed at Missouri as a head coach, the Purdue job is even more difficult, albeit not in the SEC. I would have waited for a better opportunity as Odom is only 48, so he’s got a lot more tread on the tire.
Barry Odom made $1.75 million at UNLV in 2024, and while the terms of his Purdue contract haven’t been released, it’s probably around $5 million per year, which UNLV cannot match. So, yes, it’s the money. Purdue has won one conference title since 1968, that coming in 2000, so building the Boilermakers into a winner is more difficult than the task he faced at UNLV as he’s dealing with Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State and USC, among others, on an annual basis. UNLV’s biggest challenge come 2026 was going to be Air Force, and I’m sure the fact Odom would have been coaching in the MAC-West probably played a role in him getting out now.
My ballot
1. RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State:
2. WR/DB Travis Hunter, Colorado
3. QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
How it will turn out
1. WR/DB Travis Hunter, Colorado
2.RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
3. QB Cam Ward, Miami Hurricanes
I have no issue with Hunter beating Jeanty, but Jeanty has been the most impactful — that’s not a real word —player in college football this season.
The top remaining MLB free agents are:
1. SP Roki Sasaki (due to the limited acquisition cost)
2. SP Corbin Burnes
3. 3B Alex Bregman
4. LHP Max Fried
5. OF Anthony Santander
6. 1B Pete Alonso
7. OF Teoscar Hernandez
I think the Red Sox will get Fried and trade for Garrett Crochet, which is not a bad offseason. But the Red Sox’s future hinges on whether the young corps of Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel pan out. The Red Sox have arguably the best farm system in baseball, so knowing which ones to trade for upgrades like Crochet and which ones to hold onto is key. But now that Juan Soto has signed for $765 million, the Red Sox not giving Mookie Betts $360 million to $400 million four years ago is looking awfully stupid, and it looked awfully stupid at the time. He’s got two World Series titles with the Dodgers since then.
Leonardo DiCaprio followed by Jim Varney (of the Ernest series). DiCaprio is the one actor who I make it a point to watch all of his movies. The last one I didn’t was J. Edgar in 2011. He was amazing in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, The Basketball Diaries, The Aviator, Shutter Island, Django Unchained and The Wolf of Wall Street, with all being Oscar-worthy performances. I actually thought Tom Hardy was better in The Revenant, the one time DiCaprio won an Oscar. Go figure.
I will never act like I know how good a recruiting class will turn out. It’s a fool’s errand. Before Nevada football announced its 2014 recruiting class, I wrote this column titled, “Demystifying the hype: College football recruiting more like educated guesswork.” It basically noted that 50 percent of the players transferred or quit before graduating with each class netting about seven players who would eventually start, and that was before the transfer portal. So, the attrition rate is huge and there’s no telling how each class will turn out. I will note the best recruiting classes under Jay Norvell and Brian Polian were their first full ones (the classes entering their second season as head coach). That’s the class Jeff Choate just recruited. With Chris Ault, it was the second full class (the class entering his third season as head coach). So, that initial class tends to be a good one as you’re selling recruits on that initial vision. As such, I think Nevada’s 2025 class will be a good one and lift the Wolf Pack back to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (and maybe more — the Famous Murray Nacho Bowl, coming soon)!
See y’all next week!
Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.