Week 15 Recap

THE TEXANS ARE 2024 AFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS!!

Week 15 was a resounding success. The Texans took care of the Dolphins at home, and then watched Jonathan Taylor and the Colts drop the division title to them from right outside the endzone. With the AFC South crown officially in hand, the Texans have secured a spot in the playoffs with at least one guaranteed home game.

The Steelers also came up with a loss to Philadelphia, making room for some possible seeding improvement. On the flip side, the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens all won. With the Chiefs victory, the Texans are officially out of contention for the 1 Seed. The 2 Seed also remains unlikely with the Bills win, but still possible.

Here's where we stand as far as AFC Competition goes right now:

• Out of Reach: Chiefs

• Seeding Competitors: Bills, Steelers, Ravens

• Wildcard Contenders (Irrelevant to Texans playoff seeding): Colts, Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins, Bengals

• Eliminated: Browns, Jags, Jets, Titans, Patriots, Raiders

Now that we have locked up a spot in the playoffs, the things to monitor are:

1. Seeding
2. Potential Opponents

As of right now, the Texans could be the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Seed. Their first round playoff opponent currently could be any team from the Seeding Competitors or Wildcard Contenders listed above, with the exception of Buffalo (since they have locked up the AFC East, they will for sure be a 1-4 seed).

So let's look ahead a little bit.

How do we potentially lock up the 2nd or 3rd Seed?

How Texans get the 2 Seed:

• Texans Win out AND
• Bills lose 2 out of 3 AND
• Steelers lose 1 out of 3

OR

• Texans win 2 out of 3 AND
• Bills lose out AND
• Steelers lose 2 out of 3

How Texans get the 3 Seed:

• Texans win out AND
• Steelers lose 1 out of 3 OR Bills lose 2 out of 3

OR

• Texans win 2 out of 3 AND
• Ravens lose to the Texans OR Ravens lose 2 out of 3 AND
• Steelers lose 2 out of 3 OR Bills lose out

OR

• Texans win vs Baltimore
• Ravens lose to the Browns AND
• Steelers lose out

As you can see, the 2 Seed is a long shot. But the 3 Seed? Honestly pretty attainable.

As a reminder, the ESPN Playoff Machine is live! You can use this to play around with all sorts of scenarios and see what the playoff matchups and seeds can look like.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
4. Houston Texans (9-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
6. Denver Broncos (9-5)
7. LA Chargers (8-5)

The Texans are currently guaranteed at least the 4th Seed, and could end this week slotted into the 3 Seed.

Key Games

Texans @ Chiefs

• Desired Winner: Texans

We will have to see if Mahomes' ankle injury is something that keeps him out this week – because if it does this game becomes a lot more takeable. Regardless, this is THE top AFC Contender and it's going to be a big test for this team. Coming out with a victory would be extremely valuable for this team building up some December momentum to go into the playoffs. That said, with this game being on a short week and then playing Baltimore just 4 days later? Health has to be a priority for our players – coming out of this stretch as unscathed as possible is going to be a big factor in how successful this team can be in the playoffs.

Steelers @ Ravens

• Desired Winner: Ravens

Both of these teams are competing for the AFC North crown, and Pittsburgh remains on top by a game for now (and the tiebreaker). If the Texans win this week and the Steelers lose to the Ravens, then all 3 teams will have a a 10-5 record. Due to a better record in conference games, this would put the Texans in the 3rd Seed.

Patriots @ Bills

• Desired Winner: Patriots

The Bills have to lose at least 2 out of their last 3 games for the Texans to have a chance at the 2 Seed. Anything goes in division games, so root for that to manifest into a Patriots upset over Buffalo to put the Texans potentially just one game out from the 2 Seed.

Other Relevant Games

Titans @ Colts

• Desired Winner: Titans

A Titans win would officially kick the Colts out of the playoff race.

Broncos @ Chargers

• Desired Winner: N/A

No desired winner here, but it's 2 potential playoff opponents that are of interest to keep an eye on.

Browns @ Bengals

• Desired Winner: N/A

Bengals are still a potential wildcard team, and could be officially eliminated as a possible opponent this week.

49ers @ Dolphins

• Desired Winner: N/A

Dolphins are still a potential wildcard team, and could be officially eliminated as a possible opponent this week.

Current Potential Wildcard Round Matchups

• Texans vs. Steelers (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Ravens (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Colts (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Chargers (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Broncos (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Bengals (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Dolphins (Possibility Example)

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Thursday Night Game: Broncos @ Chargers (Fox, Amazon)
• Saturday Noon Game: Texans @ Chiefs (NBC)
• Saturday Late Afternoon Game: Steelers @ Ravens (Fox)
• Sunday Noon Game: Titans @ Colts OR Browns @ Bengals
• Sunday Late Afternoon Game: Patriots @ Bills

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Chiefs
• Ravens over Steelers
• Patriots over Bills