Week 16 Recap

First of all, Merry Christmas r/Texans!

Getting right to it, Week 16 was rough and emotional. The losses of Tank Dell and Jimmie Ward were back breakers and definitely up the difficulty for the team moving forward.

The Bills came away with a win while the Texans lost, which means Houston is officially out of contention for the #1 AND #2 Seeds. It will be the 3rd or 4th seed, and we could potentially have one of those locked in by the end of our game.

Here's where we stand as far as AFC Competition goes right now:

• Out of Reach: Chiefs, Bills

• Seeding Competitors: Steelers, Ravens

• Wildcard Contenders (Irrelevant to Texans playoff seeding): Colts, Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins, Bengals

• Eliminated: Browns, Jags, Jets, Titans, Patriots, Raiders

How Texans get the 3 Seed:

• Texans win out AND
• Steelers lose 1 out of 2

OR

• Ravens lose out AND
• Steelers lose out

The Texans would get locked into the 4th Seed this week with the following:

• Chiefs beat Steelers (Wednesday early afternoon)
• Ravens beat Texans (Wednesday late afternoon)

If both games swing that way, we’ll be heading for a “meaningless” game in Week 18. If either goes the other way though, then the 3rd and 4th seed will be determined by the Week 18 results.

As a reminder, the ESPN Playoff Machine is live! You can use this to play around with all sorts of scenarios and see what the playoff matchups and seeds can look like.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-6)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
6. Denver Broncos (9-6)
7. LA Chargers (9-6)

The Texans are currently guaranteed at least the 4th Seed, and could end this week slotted into the 3 Seed.

Key Games

Ravens @ Texans

• Desired Winner: Texans

Somehow the team is already entering their next matchup after an incredibly short week. There’s likely to be some struggles adjusting to the loss of Tank Dell and Jimmie Ward, as well as Shaq Mason. We will see some lesser used WRs get much more playing time, continued evolution of the o-line, and get to see Kamari Lassiter take on a new role as the nickel.

While it would certainly be interesting to see newly acquired Diontae Johnson go up against his former team, don’t expect him to be active on the short week.

Let’s see if Santa brings a Texans win vs a powerful Ravens offense.

Chiefs @ Steelers

• Desired Winner: Chiefs

The Chiefs will be playing to lock up a first round bye with a win, which would give them a full two weeks to rest starters. They’ll be strongly motivated for this one, but Pittsburgh will also be looking to keep up in the race for the AFC North. If the Chiefs can take care of business, then we’ll have our path to the 3 Seed still very open.

Other Relevant Games

Chargers @ Patriots

• Desired Winner: N/A

A Chargers win coupled with a Broncos win would lock in the AFC playoff teams (not the seeding). This includes officially knocking Indy out of the playoff hunt.

Broncos @ Bengals

• Desired Winner: N/A

This is basically a playoff game for Cincinnati. They’re out of the hunt with a loss, and still alive with a win. As mentioned above, if the Chargers and Broncos both win, then the 7 AFC teams will be officially set.

Current Potential Wildcard Round Matchups

• Texans vs. Chargers (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Ravens (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Colts (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Steelers (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Broncos (Possibility Example)
• Texans vs. Dolphins (Possibility Example)

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Christmas Day Noon Game: Chiefs @ Steelers (Fox, Netflix)
• Christmas Late Afternoon Game: Ravens @ Texans (Netflix)
• Saturday Noon Game: Chargers @ Patriots (NFL Network)
• Saturday Late Afternoon Game: Broncos @ Bengals (NFL Network)
• Sunday Noon Game: Colts @ Giants (depending on results of Saturday games)
• Sunday Late Afternoon Game: Dolphins @ Browns (depending on results of Saturday games)

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Ravens
• Chiefs over Steelers

If the Ravens and Steelers win, the Texans will officially be locked into the 4 seed.