Cincinnati Reds Top 5 Storylines in 2025 | Chatterbox Reds MLB Off-Season

Cincinnati Reds Top 5 Storylines in 2025 | Chatterbox Reds MLB Off-Season

Nick Kirby breaks down the 2025 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS projections from Fangraphs and gives his Top 5 Storylines surrounding the Cincinnati Reds going into next season.

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Batters

In return for their mini-free agent spree after nearly making the playoffs in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds dropped five wins, finishing 2024 with a 77-85 record. It wasn’t as bad as it looked — the team improved its Pythagorean record by five wins compared to the year before — but it felt lousy that only Nick Martinez really shined among their signings. Elly De La Cruz did break out in a massive way — he was a legitimate MVP contender for much of the season — but Matt McLain’s torn labrum and rib injury kept him away from the action.

A look at the depth chart graphic makes it pretty clear where the Reds are strong: Even with some regression toward the mean, De La Cruz is the team’s most important player, and if healthy, McLain will upgrade second base. Continuing the up-the-middle strength is Jose Trevino, recently acquired from the Yankees; he and Tyler Stephenson give the Reds an excellent tandem behind the plate. TJ Friedl in center gets a less exciting projection, but he’s still perfectly serviceable as a starter, and he’s the worst projected player of the up-the-middle quartet.

But while the rest of the lineup isn’t disastrous, it is a giant bucket of “meh.” The Reds have apparently resolved their third base logjam in the worst possible way: all the contenders basically were either disappointing or injured. The bats at first base, designated hitter, and in right field are in the bottom third of the ZiPS projections. And even with a bounce-back projected for Spencer Steer after his 96 wRC+ in 2024, left field isn’t a shining beacon of hope either.

The other problem is that when you look at the minors, there aren’t obvious players to change things up down there. Most of the better projected players are minor league journeymen types forecast for 1 WAR, and several are minor league free agents anyway. Edwin Arroyo has the most interesting long-term projection, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and isn’t a beefy corner outfield/first base type.

Pitchers
Hunter Greene finally put it together for a full season in 2024, a relief both to Reds fans and to me since I keep putting him on my breakout list every year. Now I can stop! I wouldn’t say that Greene is definitely in the tier of pitchers where you find guys like Zack Wheeler, but he’s probably in the next group down, starters who can theoretically put up a Cy Young-worthy season in a good year.

Martinez is a wonderfully versatile pitcher, and though not a star, the Reds can plug him in most places pretty happily, even without him being a big strikeout guy. The rest of the rotation reads as more serviceable/competent than a big part of the team. Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo are quietly average, and definitely useful, but there’s no big ceiling like with Greene or Rhett Lowder. ZiPS still thinks Graham Ashcraft has some upside remaining, though the computer’s come down a little compared to the last couple of seasons. And I tend to like the acquisition of Brady Singer better than ZiPS does — it worries about him maintaining his excellent HR/9 rate in Cincy.

ZiPS isn’t a fan of the bullpen at all, though it’s not as bad as the graphic suggests. Luis Mey, who has a good number of innings on the depth chart, has the worst pitching projection of anybody in the organization.

Outside of Alexis Díaz, Martinez when used in relief, and Ashcraft if he finds his way there, ZiPS finds the Reds relievers to be a lackluster mix of arms. The big exception might be Tony Santillan…