Sean Barnard provides a preview and best bets as Houston faces SIU Edwardsville during the NCAA Tournament opening round.
Competing in the Midwest region of the bracket of the NCAA Tournament, top-seeded Houston will face off with 16-seeded SIU-Edwardsville. This matchup will be tipping off at 2:00 p.m. ET on Thursday during the opening day of the tournament.
In NCAA Tournament history, top seeds have a 154-2 record when facing the 16-seed. This 1.28% winning percentage does not bode particularly well for SIU Edwardsville but anything can happen in the month of March.
Houston enters this game as a 28.5-point favorite and -20,000 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. SIU Edwardsville holds +3500 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 126.5.
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Houston Analysis
Houston enters the NCAA Tournament as a legitimate threat to cut down the nets. Its +600 odds of winning the National Championship rank fourth among all teams. Houston is coming off back-to-back years in which it lost in the Sweet 16 and returned mostly the same core.
This season, Houston went 30-4 in the regular season and 19-1 in Big 12 conference play. As has become the standard for Kelvin Sampson-led teams, the Cougars have a dominant defense. They limit opponents to just 58.4 points per game, which is the second-best rate in the country. They also rank third in opponent field-goal percentage allowed and hold opposing teams to the 39th-worst three-point percentage.
While offense has been an issue in past seasons, there is reason to believe in this Houston team. It averages 74.2 points per game, the 165th-best rate, but ranks 21st in offensive rating and is the best three-point shooting team in the entire tournament. Collectively, Houston shoots 39.8% from beyond the three-point arc and limits turnovers at the eighth-best rate in the country.
LJ Cryer has taken his game to new heights in his second season with the program, averaging 15.2 points per game and leading the conference in three-point shooting at 42.2%. Emanuel Sharp also provides a nice balance and 75.1% of last year’s team returns hungry for revenge.
SIU Edwardsville Analysis
The Southern Illinois University Edwardsville Cougars have qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. They went 22-11 in the regular season and 13-7 in Ohio Valley Conference play. They won the conference tournament to punch their ticket to the big dance and are being thrown directly into the fire.
Entering the tournament, SIU Edwardsville holds the 351st-ranked strength of schedule. It lost both its Quad 1 matchups against Indiana and Illinois, did not face any Quad 2 opponents and was just 2-2 when facing Quad 3 teams. Its most notable victories were over Indiana State and Southeastern Missouri State University. It leans on a defensive brand of basketball, holding opponents to 66.1 points per game. The Cougars rank 36th in opponent points per game, 21st in defensive rating and limit opponents to the 21st-worst field-goal percentage.
SIU Edwardsville is led by Ray’Sean Taylor, who is averaging 19.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game on the season. He has scored 30+ points in three games this season and has connected on as many as eight three-pointers in a game. Brian Taylor II and Ring Malith are the only other scorers to average double figures, with each adding over 11 points per game.
The Pick: SIU Edwardsville Under 48.5 Points
March is all about Cinderella stories but this is not a matchup in which I expect the glass slipper to fit. This season should be viewed as a massive success regardless of the results of this game, but Houston is about as bad of a matchup as the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament champs could ask for.
Houston possesses a caliber of defense that no other team in the country can rival. When it is fully clicking, it feels as if it has twice the number of players on the floor. On average, the Cougars have held opponents to 58.5 points per game, however they have held opposing teams to under 48.5 points in seven games this season. That includes teams like Utah, TCU and Oklahoma State.
Expect a statement performance from the Cougars as they look to solidify themselves as deep tournament threats with their defense being the real difference here. SIU Edwardsville has not played an opponent with nearly the caliber of defense that Houston possesses. The 28.5-point spread is a bit too steep for me, although I lean toward this direction. Instead, expect an all-out defensive attack from Houston to set the tone right from the opening whistle and for points to be extremely hard to come by for SIU Edwardsville throughout.
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