New York Mets 2025 Season Projections – Rico Brogna Episode 451
The Mets season is days away from starting up, which means it’s that time for some 2025 projections. Joining the pod is Tyler Ward AKA @WardyNYM
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6 comments
Thanks again for having me on! Let’s get this season started baby
#LFGM
If Magil or Canning leads the Mets in innings, it means the season is a disaster.
I’m so excited for this season and yet there’s always that little thing in the back of my head saying – should I not get my hopes up
Mets multiverse
The reason the sportsbook lines are correct but sound so wrong is that aside from players with recent health issues (e.g. Lindor's back), there's an implicit assumption that the player will be healthy for the full season, so we think, "Oh, they'll clear that number easy." But in addition to the chance that normal variability in performance can result in a down year, there's a reasonable chance that any given player sustains a small injury that keeps them out for 3 to 6 weeks and kills their chance at hitting the over. If you'd bet the over on McNeil or Alvarez in any counting stat, you'd already be ripping up your ticket. But when I heard that 27.5 line on Vientos, I almost got up and placed a bet right then!