Most commanding lead: 14 points with 8:17 to go
ESPN’s model says Duke had a 98.5 percent win probability when it took a 59-45 lead with 8:17 left and a 95.2 percent win probability when it went up 64-55 on a Cooper Flagg three with three minutes to go.
We’ll focus more on the last three minutes here, but note that for Houston to even get into position to complete its comeback, it had a 10-0 run before two Tyrese Proctor free throws and Flagg’s three.
In the last three minutes, Duke went 0-of-2 with two turnovers. But the most important sequence occurred at the free-throw line.
With 20 seconds left, Proctor was on the line shooting the front end of a one-and-one with the Blue Devils leading by one. He missed, and Flagg was called for a questionable over-the-back trying to secure the rebound.
That gave J’Wan Roberts a one-and-one, and he made both.
Flagg, the presumptive 2025 No. 1 NBA draft pick, missed a fadeaway jumper on the next possession. The Cougars closed it out from there to escape with a 70-67 win, sealing the most devastating meltdown in March Madness history.
2025 Duke and 2008 Memphis were essentially tied based on the ranking criteria, but we gave the Blue Devils the No. 1 ranking because they were a bigger favorite entering the game.
In other words, Duke was supposed to win due to its considerable talent advantage, which made the choke job more shocking as it was happening, whereas Kansas-Memphis was seen as a tossup.