The similarities between Tony Gwynn and Luis Arraez through the same number of games is downright freaky
September 17, 2024
The similarities between Tony Gwynn and Luis Arraez through the same number of games is downright freaky
31 comments
There’s clearly a speed gap, which allowed Tony those triples, and thus the OPS gap. Pretty sure Gwynn had quite a few more steals, too (not to mention better defense). Pretty cool that their purely hitting stats are so similar, though. Wonder what the difference in wRC+ is or fDef.
Should be noted that part of what makes Gwynn so impressive was his ability to sustain this style and production. Gwynn was really just getting started in the stats you see here. He had about 1750 hits after turning 30 and won batting titles every year in his age 34-37 seasons. Of course I’m rooting for Arraez to continue doing what he’s doing, but it’ll take a lot longer for him to really be comparable to Gwynn.
That said, you’re right, these stats are incredibly similar and that’s pretty cool.
Damn was Gwynn actually trash
Gwynn’s last 8 years were insane, he just kept getting better at the plate. He averaged like .360 for 5 years after 33.
Arraez has no speed and no glove, and very likely won’t develop any power, though.
The difference though is that Gwynn was a great fielder and baserunner.
Arraez is going to win a batting title this year while putting up less than 2 WAR (he is at 1.5 in 141 games).
Gwynn with a similar WRC+ was a 5.1 WAR player.
Did the Twins make the right move in trading him?
Show SBs. Young Gwynn could burn
Bro really needs to cut down on his strikeouts…
Sometimes hitters can pick up differences in spin. They can identify pitches if there are different release points. But if a pitcher can change speeds, every hitter is helpless, limited by human vision.
Except for that fucker Luis Arraez.
Surprised no one has said it yet so…
Mom can we have Tony Gwynn? We have Tony Gwynn at home….
A lot of us Twins fans love Arraez. But there are also a lot of us that recognize his insane ball to bat skills are really all he brings to the table. No real spot in the field, cannot run at all. Still, watching his ABs is a joy. Love that dude!
What kills Arraez is his defense. If he was a quality 2B, he’d be an elite overall player. As a 1B/DH, the lack of power kills value.
I hate the comparisons, aaráez isn’t nearly the player gwynn is and that gets lost a lot when people say he hits like him over and over.
Even if he is a liability on defense, extend this man for the vibes. He’s one of the few players I’ll ignore the WAR for because he just fits in here with what we are doing. He gets on base damn it
Just got to edit player, inject more speed and more discipline, and then Luis Arraez becomes the modern day Tony Gwynn.
Only question is, who’s the modern Greg Maddux?
So glad Preller picked him up. His first game at Petco, he told one of the coaches, “I’m gonna win this game right now,” and then he stepped up and [walked off the Dodgers](https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/qDw2JELWap).
It’s interesting as an example of what so often happens in these sorts of comparisons in award conversations. It’s definitely a fun and surprisingly close comparison in terms of straight batting output. And yet, Gwynn was considered one of the best players in the game whereas Arraez is not.
Is that because we no longer fetishize batting average? That’s probably part of it.
But also, Gwynn was just a much, much more valuable fielder. Allowing the defensive metrics are not as accurate/reliable as offensive ones (especially looking back in time), Gwynn was 97 runs better than Arraez, but about 2/3 of that was from defense (Gwynn +16.6, Arraez -51). That “extra” stuff that often gets overlooked as people focus on batting output can be the difference between being a solid every day regular and being a HOF-track All-Star.
It is crazy that so many stats are close together. I doubt the dwar and overall all bwar are the same at this stage of their careers.
Arraez’s value would not be great for a lot of teams, but for a team with Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Profar, Bogaerts, etc, he’s a perfect fit. Those singles and doubles are pretty valuable regardless of what WAR figures say.
Both are also considered some of the nicest people to ever play
There’s a reason Twins and Marlins fans continue to actively root for Arraez regardless of what jersey he is wearing.
amazing
Crazy how different the philosophies of today change our perception of Arraez. Even if you make him slow and awful at defense, every team would have made room any way possible for Gwynn. Today, how many teams would move mountains for Arraez?
Wow and some don’t like Arraez because he lacks power. TG had the same critics.
By fWAR, Gwynn was worth 21.9 in his first 667 games and Arraez is only worth 11.5. Gwynn finished with 65 total fWAR and 8 seasons better than Arraez’ best.
Now do their defense and baserunning comparison…
I hate that this game only values a hitter like Luis at 1.4 WAR this year. There’s something wrong if this isn’t right.
As good as Luis is, he still can’t quite achieve those insane SO% numbers. Gwynn was a god of not striking out almost ever.
Pretty good yes, but Gwynn’s strikeout rate was insane. Idk if we’ll ever see someone as efficient as him again
Tony Gwynn struck out 188 times… *in the 90s*
Worth noting that league wide batting averages were about .12 points higher when Tony Gwynn played, and that strikeouts were about 40% less than they are now.
31 comments
There’s clearly a speed gap, which allowed Tony those triples, and thus the OPS gap. Pretty sure Gwynn had quite a few more steals, too (not to mention better defense). Pretty cool that their purely hitting stats are so similar, though. Wonder what the difference in wRC+ is or fDef.
Should be noted that part of what makes Gwynn so impressive was his ability to sustain this style and production. Gwynn was really just getting started in the stats you see here. He had about 1750 hits after turning 30 and won batting titles every year in his age 34-37 seasons. Of course I’m rooting for Arraez to continue doing what he’s doing, but it’ll take a lot longer for him to really be comparable to Gwynn.
That said, you’re right, these stats are incredibly similar and that’s pretty cool.
Damn was Gwynn actually trash
Gwynn’s last 8 years were insane, he just kept getting better at the plate. He averaged like .360 for 5 years after 33.
Arraez has no speed and no glove, and very likely won’t develop any power, though.
The difference though is that Gwynn was a great fielder and baserunner.
Arraez is going to win a batting title this year while putting up less than 2 WAR (he is at 1.5 in 141 games).
Gwynn with a similar WRC+ was a 5.1 WAR player.
Did the Twins make the right move in trading him?
Show SBs. Young Gwynn could burn
Bro really needs to cut down on his strikeouts…
Sometimes hitters can pick up differences in spin. They can identify pitches if there are different release points. But if a pitcher can change speeds, every hitter is helpless, limited by human vision.
Except for that fucker Luis Arraez.
Surprised no one has said it yet so…
Mom can we have Tony Gwynn? We have Tony Gwynn at home….
A lot of us Twins fans love Arraez. But there are also a lot of us that recognize his insane ball to bat skills are really all he brings to the table. No real spot in the field, cannot run at all. Still, watching his ABs is a joy. Love that dude!
What kills Arraez is his defense. If he was a quality 2B, he’d be an elite overall player. As a 1B/DH, the lack of power kills value.
I hate the comparisons, aaráez isn’t nearly the player gwynn is and that gets lost a lot when people say he hits like him over and over.
Even if he is a liability on defense, extend this man for the vibes. He’s one of the few players I’ll ignore the WAR for because he just fits in here with what we are doing. He gets on base damn it
Just got to edit player, inject more speed and more discipline, and then Luis Arraez becomes the modern day Tony Gwynn.
Only question is, who’s the modern Greg Maddux?
So glad Preller picked him up. His first game at Petco, he told one of the coaches, “I’m gonna win this game right now,” and then he stepped up and [walked off the Dodgers](https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/qDw2JELWap).
It’s interesting as an example of what so often happens in these sorts of comparisons in award conversations. It’s definitely a fun and surprisingly close comparison in terms of straight batting output. And yet, Gwynn was considered one of the best players in the game whereas Arraez is not.
Is that because we no longer fetishize batting average? That’s probably part of it.
But also, Gwynn was just a much, much more valuable fielder. Allowing the defensive metrics are not as accurate/reliable as offensive ones (especially looking back in time), Gwynn was 97 runs better than Arraez, but about 2/3 of that was from defense (Gwynn +16.6, Arraez -51). That “extra” stuff that often gets overlooked as people focus on batting output can be the difference between being a solid every day regular and being a HOF-track All-Star.
Stat (Fangraphs) | Gwynn | Arraez
—|—|—-
Batting Runs | 98.8 | 71.1
Baserunning Runs | 3.8 | -2.7
Fielding Runs | 44.4 | -35.7
Positional Adjustment Runs | -27.8 | -15.3
League Adjustment Runs | 8.8 | 9.5
Replacement Level Adjustment Runs | 83.1 | 86.8
Total Runs Above Replacement | 211.1 | 113.8
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) | 21.8 | 11.5
It is crazy that so many stats are close together. I doubt the dwar and overall all bwar are the same at this stage of their careers.
Arraez’s value would not be great for a lot of teams, but for a team with Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Profar, Bogaerts, etc, he’s a perfect fit. Those singles and doubles are pretty valuable regardless of what WAR figures say.
Both are also considered some of the nicest people to ever play
There’s a reason Twins and Marlins fans continue to actively root for Arraez regardless of what jersey he is wearing.
amazing
Crazy how different the philosophies of today change our perception of Arraez. Even if you make him slow and awful at defense, every team would have made room any way possible for Gwynn. Today, how many teams would move mountains for Arraez?
Wow and some don’t like Arraez because he lacks power. TG had the same critics.
By fWAR, Gwynn was worth 21.9 in his first 667 games and Arraez is only worth 11.5. Gwynn finished with 65 total fWAR and 8 seasons better than Arraez’ best.
Now do their defense and baserunning comparison…
I hate that this game only values a hitter like Luis at 1.4 WAR this year. There’s something wrong if this isn’t right.
As good as Luis is, he still can’t quite achieve those insane SO% numbers. Gwynn was a god of not striking out almost ever.
Pretty good yes, but Gwynn’s strikeout rate was insane. Idk if we’ll ever see someone as efficient as him again
Tony Gwynn struck out 188 times… *in the 90s*
Worth noting that league wide batting averages were about .12 points higher when Tony Gwynn played, and that strikeouts were about 40% less than they are now.