[Barnwell] So, I’ve been thinking a lot about that viral Patrick Mahomes interceptions overturned by penalty statistic from the weekend. It felt like a bad-faith use of data. I went and took a closer look to see if that was true.

10 comments

1. It’s a long thread, but it’s worth it. Bill’s breakdown using real data is incredibly interesting (and vindicating). 

2. We, as a species, may have access to a little too much information.

3. This is great and really highlights how great Pat is, but the reality is that there’s a narrative that the team and Pat are favored by the refs and no amount of stats with context (and general sane thinking) will be able to change that. That being said, it’s really funny that Burrow has thrown more picks with far less attempts.

4. People also focus a lot on the overturned Interceptions, and very little on the interceptions caused by the Receivers practically giving the ball to the defense.

5. So you’re telling me that Burrow has been bailed out of INTs by penalties at a rate almost twice as much as Mahomes? Sign me up Bill Barnwell.

6. My unprovable hypothesis is Mahomes Magic is so powerful that defenders fear getting beat by it. So the defender ends up beating themselves. Like a defender will anxiously grasp at a jersey, arrive early on a high pass, or do an eager late hit they otherwise would have avoided.

7. I saw a TikTok explaining that half of those interceptions were on free plays, where he basically already knew it was fine to throw a risky ball

8. Can someone screenshot for those of us without twitter?

9. As someone who has had the pleasure of watching Mahomes his whole career, people vastly underrate his willingness to throw to a receiver(or Kelce) getting held on a route in order to force the ref into throwing the flag.  

10. I lost so many brain cells from reading the replies to Bill’s tweets.

    It felt like I was Luke Wilson’s character in Idiocracy, surrounded by morons. “You expect me to read all that?!?! All them wirds?!?!” (may not be an actual quote, but certainly captures the spirit)

    Or, the guy who called it mental gymnastics. No, man, this is just how people with an IQ over 60 reason through a problem, step by step.