I’m seeing the only realistic way this happens, as of now, is as follows:
We win out. Finish the year on a 10 game win streak. 84-78 is the bare minimum.
Royals continue to falter, having come into today losing 7 in a row. Washington is playing for pride, but Atlanta is in the wild card hunt. Need realistically 1-5, but 2-4 is possible (I don’t know what our respective intradivisonal records are, but that would be the tiebreaker as we are tied in the season series).
Detroit is in, even if (read: when) we sweep I don’t see them dropping a game to Chicago. 3-3 puts them in guaranteed.
Seattle needs Randy to have brought our Minute Maid Park luck to the team. They finish in Oakland, but 3-3 will do just fine for our purposes. Hell, I won’t even count out Oakland taking a game off them, some sneaky good pitching over there.
Really, let’s just win the whole thing – it could happen even if fangraphs considers the odds a rounding error.
It would be the funniest thing ever
Duh, better bring Palacios back and try to get a guy a who hasn’t played some ABs. Last Chance!
Hey 0.6 ain’t 0. Time to huff some hopium
Rays path to the playoffs:
If the Rays win out (3-0 vs both DET and BOS), we finish 84-78 and need THREE of the following FOUR to happen: DET goes 2-1 or worse vs CWS, finishes 84-78, we would have tiebreaker if we sweep them. KC goes 1-5 or worse and finishes 83-79 (we went 3-3 vs KC but they own tiebreaker over us based on better record within their division), MIN goes 3-3 or worse and finishes 84-78 (we went 4-2 vs MIN), SEA goes 3-3 or worse and finishes 83-79 (we went 3-3 vs SEA but they own tiebreaker over us based on better record within their division).
If the Rays get to 83-79 by going 2-1 vs DET and 3-0 vs BOS, then DET gets the tiebreaker over us and beats us no matter what via better record within division, and our only way in is if KC loses out AND both MIN and SEA go 2-4 or worse.
If the Rays get to 83-79 by going 3-0 vs DET and 2-1 vs BOS, we need THREE of the following FOUR to happen: DET goes 1-2 or worse vs CWS, KC loses out, MIN goes 2-4 or worse, SEA goes 2-4 or worse.
If the Rays get to 82-80 by going 3-0 vs DET and 1-2 vs BOS, our only way in is if DET gets swept by CWS, MIN goes 1-5 or worse, SEA goes 1-5 or worse, AND BOS goes 1-2 or worse vs TOR.
If the Rays finish 81-81 or worse, or if we finish 82-80 and do not sweep DET, we are eliminated no matter what.
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I’m seeing the only realistic way this happens, as of now, is as follows:
We win out. Finish the year on a 10 game win streak. 84-78 is the bare minimum.
Royals continue to falter, having come into today losing 7 in a row. Washington is playing for pride, but Atlanta is in the wild card hunt. Need realistically 1-5, but 2-4 is possible (I don’t know what our respective intradivisonal records are, but that would be the tiebreaker as we are tied in the season series).
Detroit is in, even if (read: when) we sweep I don’t see them dropping a game to Chicago. 3-3 puts them in guaranteed.
Seattle needs Randy to have brought our Minute Maid Park luck to the team. They finish in Oakland, but 3-3 will do just fine for our purposes. Hell, I won’t even count out Oakland taking a game off them, some sneaky good pitching over there.
Really, let’s just win the whole thing – it could happen even if fangraphs considers the odds a rounding error.
It would be the funniest thing ever
Duh, better bring Palacios back and try to get a guy a who hasn’t played some ABs. Last Chance!
Hey 0.6 ain’t 0. Time to huff some hopium
Rays path to the playoffs:
If the Rays win out (3-0 vs both DET and BOS), we finish 84-78 and need THREE of the following FOUR to happen: DET goes 2-1 or worse vs CWS, finishes 84-78, we would have tiebreaker if we sweep them. KC goes 1-5 or worse and finishes 83-79 (we went 3-3 vs KC but they own tiebreaker over us based on better record within their division), MIN goes 3-3 or worse and finishes 84-78 (we went 4-2 vs MIN), SEA goes 3-3 or worse and finishes 83-79 (we went 3-3 vs SEA but they own tiebreaker over us based on better record within their division).
If the Rays get to 83-79 by going 2-1 vs DET and 3-0 vs BOS, then DET gets the tiebreaker over us and beats us no matter what via better record within division, and our only way in is if KC loses out AND both MIN and SEA go 2-4 or worse.
If the Rays get to 83-79 by going 3-0 vs DET and 2-1 vs BOS, we need THREE of the following FOUR to happen: DET goes 1-2 or worse vs CWS, KC loses out, MIN goes 2-4 or worse, SEA goes 2-4 or worse.
If the Rays get to 82-80 by going 3-0 vs DET and 1-2 vs BOS, our only way in is if DET gets swept by CWS, MIN goes 1-5 or worse, SEA goes 1-5 or worse, AND BOS goes 1-2 or worse vs TOR.
If the Rays finish 81-81 or worse, or if we finish 82-80 and do not sweep DET, we are eliminated no matter what.