[ArmchairAlex] Doing the math on the Braves’ 2025 payroll
October 7, 2024
[ArmchairAlex] Doing the math on the Braves’ 2025 payroll
7 comments
Let the offseason content begin in earnest! Please appreciate the 90 minutes it took me last night to figure out how to create a marginal tax formula in excel (because I was too proud to just copy someone else’s formula online).
The key here is that assuming evenly spread out contracts Braves have about $25M to spend before they get to last year’s cash outlay. Since the Braves budget by cash outlay and since AA has announced that payroll is going up, I’d think of $25M as the floor of what the team will spend on new players. (I’ve already budgeted in the options the Braves are picking up, as well as the arb estimates for Kelenic and Lee.)
TRADER TED MONDAYS!!!!!!!
Braves will likely look to reduce salary from existing core so it can invest in new contracts while resetting tax threshold. Been downvoted already for saying this but I’m confident it’s going to happen. Have a gut feeling.
Just looked at the spreadsheet, and $2.3M for J.Kel in arbitration? Oh HELL no
Just taking a surface level look at Kel’s ‘market value’ per [**Spotrac**](https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26029/jarred-kelenic), they run a linear regression on similar player contracts to provide a *base calculated value*, then calculate *Prime% Change* values based on player production comps, and then average them for **Kel’s Calculated Market Value**. That value ends up being:
$91.3M over 7 years, or a **$13M AAV**
If this team wants Kel to rot on the bench, so be it — but he won’t be doing that crap for free
Braves resign AJ Minter for 2 yr 16m
Braves trade Nacho Alvarez, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and Orlando Arcia to the Nationals for CJ Abrams
Braves sign Walker Buehler to 1yr /$15M contract.
Braves resign Ramon Laureano to 1yr/$4M
Something I should add/clarify – if you use 2024 OD payroll as the baseline (rather than 2024 year-end payroll), you probably end up with a more conservative salary outlook since AA took on about $13M in cash over the course of the season.
7 comments
Let the offseason content begin in earnest! Please appreciate the 90 minutes it took me last night to figure out how to create a marginal tax formula in excel (because I was too proud to just copy someone else’s formula online).
The key here is that assuming evenly spread out contracts Braves have about $25M to spend before they get to last year’s cash outlay. Since the Braves budget by cash outlay and since AA has announced that payroll is going up, I’d think of $25M as the floor of what the team will spend on new players. (I’ve already budgeted in the options the Braves are picking up, as well as the arb estimates for Kelenic and Lee.)
TRADER TED MONDAYS!!!!!!!
Braves will likely look to reduce salary from existing core so it can invest in new contracts while resetting tax threshold. Been downvoted already for saying this but I’m confident it’s going to happen. Have a gut feeling.
Just looked at the spreadsheet, and $2.3M for J.Kel in arbitration? Oh HELL no
Just taking a surface level look at Kel’s ‘market value’ per [**Spotrac**](https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26029/jarred-kelenic), they run a linear regression on similar player contracts to provide a *base calculated value*, then calculate *Prime% Change* values based on player production comps, and then average them for **Kel’s Calculated Market Value**. That value ends up being:
$91.3M over 7 years, or a **$13M AAV**
If this team wants Kel to rot on the bench, so be it — but he won’t be doing that crap for free
Braves resign AJ Minter for 2 yr 16m
Braves trade Nacho Alvarez, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and Orlando Arcia to the Nationals for CJ Abrams
Braves sign Walker Buehler to 1yr /$15M contract.
Braves resign Ramon Laureano to 1yr/$4M
Something I should add/clarify – if you use 2024 OD payroll as the baseline (rather than 2024 year-end payroll), you probably end up with a more conservative salary outlook since AA took on about $13M in cash over the course of the season.
Ty substack man