Welcome to the sixth iteration of 2024’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.
Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:
- H2H: Head-to-Head
- WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
- WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
- SOV: Strength of Victory
- SOS: Strength of Schedule
Week #5 Review
Ok, the Bills loss may have been disgusting no good nasty, but the rest of the week went surprisingly well for Buffalo. The Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers all lost important contests providing Buffalo with plenty of cushion in division as well as conference. It wasn’t all good though with the Ravens, Dolphins, and Chiefs getting wins, but all things considered this was a pretty positive week (when ignoring the outcome of Buffalo’s game). Now in week 6 Buffalo desperately needs a win and could continue to get some help.
Rooting Interests Record: 24-27 (LW 6-4)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +0 (LW +7 👏)
49ers (2-3) @ Seahawks (3-2) – Thursday 8:15PM
In most NFC only matchups moving forward we will be able to find some SOV/SOS gains for the Bills and/or drops for fellow AFC competitors. This doesn’t happen to be one of those games with both the 49ers and Seahawks set to take on the Bills later this season. As a result, this game presents itself without a rooting interest but with interest for what awaits Buffalo down the line.
Also, if you enjoy these posts, check out The Greg Tompsett Sports Show during halftime of this game for even more insight in what to root for this week!
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Jaguars (1-4) @ Bears (3-2) – Sunday 9:30AM 👏
The Jaguars may have saved their season with a Week 5 victory over the Colts, but they still have a steep hill to climb to become relevant yet again. In the context of the Bills the fewer relevant teams there are in the AFC the better, which means Buffalo gets to enjoy rooting for a “generational” player this week. Wake up early and root for the NFC team to take down the AFC team in the second London game of the NFL season.
Optimal Outcome: Bears Victory
Cardinals (2-3) @ Packers (3-2) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏
This NFC only game does come with a rooting interest. The Cardinals are one of the three teams which Buffalo has beaten at this point of the season while the Packers aren’t on Buffalo’s 2024 docket. That means a win by Arizona boosts Buffalo’s SOS and SOV, which while minimal, is also optimal.
Optimal Outcome: Cardinals Victory
Colts (2-3) @ Titans (1-3) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏
Both the Colts and Titans’ seasons are on the precipice of collapse, with this game a tipping point for each. Coming out of their bye week the Titans desperately need a victory while the Colts need one following a heartbreaker to the Jaguars. For rooting interests middling of records is almost always beneficial which points to a Tennessee victory here. Beyond that, this game is worth a watch with the Titans coming to Buffalo next Sunday.
Optimal Outcome: Titans Victory
Texans (4-1) @ Patriots (1-4) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏👏
Each week there seems to be one game where the logic in these posts opposes the logic of the heart, this is that one. While an argument could be made that a Texans loss here benefits Buffalo most, especially following last weeks loss, we are taking a different approach. Winning the AFC East is goal #1 for the Bills and until their AFC East competitors are unlimited rooting against them is paramount. In this matchup that means rooting against a perceived bottom feeder in pursuit of faster elimination.
Optimal Outcome: Texans Victory
Buccaneers (3-2) @ Saints (2-3) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏
For the first time this season we get to do some SOV math involving two NFC teams which the Bills do not play this season. The goal of this exercise is to identify which team losing reduces the SOV of the most important AFC teams. That means acknowledging the Buccaneers loss to the Broncos and the Saints loss to the Chiefs. Answer which team is a greater threat to the Bills (obvious) and root against the NFC team they beat.
Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers Victory
Browns (1-4) @ Eagles (2-2) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏
The approach to this game mirrors that of the Jaguars @ Bears game. The Browns are on the verge of utter collapse with losing this game likely resulting in an all-out fire-sale. On the other side of the field is the Philadelphia Eagles who outside of a possible, let’s not say the words, matchup are inconsequential to the 2024 Buffalo Bills. Root yet again for NFC to down AFC in a season defining game for the latter.
Optimal Outcome: Eagles Victory
Commanders (4-1) @ Ravens (3-2) – Sunday 1:00PM 👏👏👏
Arguably the game of the week pits the surprising Commanders against maybe the NFL’s best team Ravens. Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson is one of the more electrifying quarterback matchups you could witness. For Buffalo the quarterback to root for is obvious at this point in the season with an outcome that could have a major impact on how seeding shakes out at season’s end.
Optimal Outcome: Commanders Victory
Chargers (2-2) @ Broncos (3-2) – Sunday 4:05PM 👏👏
The AFC West is shaking out to be yet another runaway for the Chiefs with their only real threat set to be the winner of this contest. The Chargers have the quarterback, but the Broncos clearly have the gusto at this point in the season. Middling, middling, middling that’s what we root for here and then keep a close eye on the team that pulls off this victory.
Optimal Outcome: Chargers Victory
Steelers (3-2) @ Raiders (2-3) – Sunday 4:05PM 👏👏
Much like the Bills the Steelers began the season 3-0 and have dropped 2 in a row heading into a road game in Week 6. Unlike the Bills the Raiders are in a bit of a freefall with questions swirling around what is next for them both this season and beyond. For Buffalo, a Las Vegas win here means yet another team falls to .500 and under, and until proven otherwise that is a really good thing for the Bills.
Optimal Outcome: Raiders Victory
Lions (3-1) @ Cowboys (3-2) – Sunday 4:25PM 👏
Detroit @ Dallas will speak volumes about where each team is going this season. The Lions look the better of the two teams, but the Cowboys have plenty of fire power to compete. As for rooting interests, the winner of this game is optimally the team which Buffalo will face later this season. That just so happens to be their Lake Erie Bro which makes rooting for them all the more easy.
Optimal Outcome: Lions Victory
Falcons (3-2) @ Panthers (1-4) – Sunday 4:25PM 👏
The last NFC only game of the season happens to also be an NFC only game where we attempt the SOV exercise. In that context the Falcons lost to the Steelers and Chiefs while the Panthers have lost to the Bengals. Two AFC teams with a winning record versus one AFC team with a below .500 record makes for an obvious rooting interest in this minimally important game.
Optimal Outcome: Panthers Victory
Bengals (1-4) @ Giants (2-3) – Sunday 8:20PM 👏👏
The Bengals are a stunning 1-4 but have a bit of relief on the horizon. Their next four games are currently against teams with .500 or below records providing them a path back into the AFC playoff picture quickly. But that path will close near instantly if they drop a game in New Jersey on Sunday to the lowly Giants. That would be great news for the Bills and a solid rooting interest for Sunday night.
Optimal Outcome: Giants Victory
Bills (3-2) @ Jets (2-3) – Monday 8:15PM 👏👏👏👏👏
The ills of the pass can be resolved by the elixirs of the future. In this case, the elixir is the Bills beating the Jets. Do it.
Optimal Outcome: Bills Victory
Optimal Standings
If all the above games were to go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.
- Chiefs (5-0)**
- Texans (5-1)**
- Bills (4-2)**
- Ravens (3-3, 1-0 DIV)**
- Chargers (3-2)*
- Steelers (3-3, 0-0 DIV H2H Win over DEN)*
- Broncos (3-3, H2H Win over LVR, H2H Loss to PIT)*
- Raiders (3-3, H2H Loss to DEN)
- Titans (2-3, H2H Win over MIA)
- Dolphins (2-3, H2H Loss to TEN)
- Jets (2-4, 2-2 WLC)
- Colts (2-4, 1-3 WLC)
- Browns (1-5, 0-0 DIV, 1-1 WLC)
- Patriots (1-5, 1-3 WLC)
- Jaguars (1-5, 1-4 WLC)
- Bengals (1-5, 0-1 DIV, 0-3 WLC)
** Division Leader * Wildcard
7 comments
Maybe for now we just focus on the bills winning a game and not looking like dogshit and getting Allen killed
Always a solid read. Go Bills!
I like the sound of that, go Bills!
If 1-4 New England passes us, we’re likely not making the playoffs anyways…we need Houston to lose at least twice to have a potential rematch be played at home.
I don’t understand, goal of winning the division or not, how Houston can possibly be the rooting interest.
I always find these posts interesting because it shows how long term all of this plays into the end of the season. Makes it more interesting than just hoping for the bills to Win and stay/get healthy.
Seeing teams on a week 5 bye during a 17 game season feels weird. Or maybe the fact we’ve already gone through 5 weeks is the weird part. It threw me off looking at some of the standings
At a certain point, you need to realize that someone needs to win a division. Take the AFC North, I think it makes sense to root for the Steelers to win their division as opposed to the Bengals or Ravens. Personally, I’m rooting for the Steelers in that matchup. Bengals lose and Steelers and Ravens win this week, Bengals are essentially eliminated. That’s insanely huge, as the Bengals were a Super Bowl contender at the beginning of the season. Also, a Steelers victory means more teams are competing against the Chiefs for the 1 seed.