Good breakdown. I think Pete gets a 4-5 year deal in the $100M range. And I wouldn’t want to be the team signing him, because there’s a good chance he’s only an average player very soon. I’d bet on Michael Busch being a better player over the next 3 years.
You will get a Daniel Descalso and you will like it
As a UF alumni, I would love to have him come play for us
Alonso would’ve been a better fit had we not had Bellinger opt in. At least then you could’ve had him mostly DH. Now we’re fairly locked in (barring trades or injuries) to Suzuki at DH and we don’t even need someone to rest Busch at 1B because Bellinger can play there.
I have less than zero interest personally. I wouldn’t be surprised if Busch has better numbers in 25.
“Intelligent spending” incoming 🚀💥
Stop pretending the Cubs are doing anything meaningful. Jed has shown us all what he is about, time to believe him.
I would suggest adding to that analysis by using the top most similar players by age listed in Baseball Reference under similarity scores. A 30 year old is going to decline, and his reaction time and ability to hit the fastball will ebb as his 30s progress. The Similarity Scores will give you a sense of the range of outcomes for a player going forward based on what the most similar players have done as they aged in the past. Of course you would pay $100M+ for Alonso’s last five years (which include the 26-29 peak years), but that’s not what you’re buying.
Three of the top 5 most similar players to Alonso through age 29 in baseball history are Chris Davis, Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson. All three were out of baseball before their 35th birthday and did very little past their age 30 seasons. The other two were Mark McGwire whose roid usage makes him a useless comparison point, and Matt Olson who is only a year older than Alonso.. Alonso didn’t make the majors until age 24 and his type (relatively unathletic sluggers who can only play first base) often don’t age well. Caveat emptor. I hope the Cubs pass on him.
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Good breakdown. I think Pete gets a 4-5 year deal in the $100M range. And I wouldn’t want to be the team signing him, because there’s a good chance he’s only an average player very soon. I’d bet on Michael Busch being a better player over the next 3 years.
You will get a Daniel Descalso and you will like it
As a UF alumni, I would love to have him come play for us
Alonso would’ve been a better fit had we not had Bellinger opt in. At least then you could’ve had him mostly DH. Now we’re fairly locked in (barring trades or injuries) to Suzuki at DH and we don’t even need someone to rest Busch at 1B because Bellinger can play there.
I have less than zero interest personally. I wouldn’t be surprised if Busch has better numbers in 25.
“Intelligent spending” incoming 🚀💥
Stop pretending the Cubs are doing anything meaningful. Jed has shown us all what he is about, time to believe him.
I would suggest adding to that analysis by using the top most similar players by age listed in Baseball Reference under similarity scores. A 30 year old is going to decline, and his reaction time and ability to hit the fastball will ebb as his 30s progress. The Similarity Scores will give you a sense of the range of outcomes for a player going forward based on what the most similar players have done as they aged in the past. Of course you would pay $100M+ for Alonso’s last five years (which include the 26-29 peak years), but that’s not what you’re buying.
Three of the top 5 most similar players to Alonso through age 29 in baseball history are Chris Davis, Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson. All three were out of baseball before their 35th birthday and did very little past their age 30 seasons. The other two were Mark McGwire whose roid usage makes him a useless comparison point, and Matt Olson who is only a year older than Alonso.. Alonso didn’t make the majors until age 24 and his type (relatively unathletic sluggers who can only play first base) often don’t age well. Caveat emptor. I hope the Cubs pass on him.