How Tyler Herro is having a career year

Herro is averaging 27.6 points, 5.8 rebounds & 5.8 assists on 64% eFG & 67% TS shooting 55% from 2pt & 48% from 3pt per 75 possessions

How exactly is doing that? What has changed in his game for him to do his? Here's a quick breakdown of his scoring game. If you want a more in-depth breakdown, I wrote a full piece going through all of it on Simply Ballin Substack!

But here, it's a quick summary of the main points!

Starting with his playtpes & how he's used:

• P&R ball handler: 32.2% -> 36.0%
• Spot up: 18.0% -> 17.1%
• Transition: 17.4% -> 17.1%
• Handoffs: 14.0% -> 13.7%
• Off-screen: 6.9% -> 6.2%
• Isolation: 3.9% -> 4.7%
• Misc: 3.5% -> 3.3%
• Cut: 2.2% -> 0.9%
• Others: 1.9% -> 1.0%

The thing that stands out is that nothing stands out. There isn't any significant difference in how he's getting his points. The %s are relatively the same & his most used are also in the same order.

Here are also his tracking stats in terms of usage & touches:

• Touches per 75: 72.3 -> 71.9
• Average dribble: 3.26 -> 3.27
• Offensive involvement rate: 36.8 -> 40.1
• On-ball action share: 41.3 -> 40.6
• Ball dominance: 25.3 -> 24.6
• Scoring possessions: 23.4 -> 23.7
• True usage: 44.3 -> 46.1

This is all showing similarity to last year. Also want to point out that there was a conversation that this jump was because he was used more off-ball but that hasn't been the case at all. He has been as much as on-ball as last year and not much has changed in that department.

This tells that this start has to do more with his ability & how effective he is in those areas. That's where you see the biggest increase.

Here are his playtype efficiency numbers compared to last year:

• P&R ball handler: 0.945 points per poss & 53.0% TS -> 0.895 & 56.6%
• Spot up: 1.108 & 59.0% -> 1.556 & 76.0%
• Transition: 1.034 & 57.8% -> 1.528 & 82.2%
• Handoffs: 0.874 & 51.7% -> 1.103 & 61.1%
• Off-screen: 1.070 & 58.8% -> 1.231 & 62.7%
• Isolation: 1.050 & 57.5% -> 0.900 & 50.7%

It's a big jump in both spot up and transition. That is just insane. He is more efficient in transition than a guy like Giannis who lives either at the rim or the foul line on the break.

A big reason why we've seen this jump is due to the change in his shot diet:

• Catch & shoot 3s: 4.2 FGA(24% of his FGA) -> 5.4(32%)
• Pull up 2s: 4.3(24%) -> 1.9(11%)
• Pull up 3s: 3.8(21%) -> 4.2(25%)
• Less than 10ft: 4.9(28%) -> 5.4(32%)

Then some other stats in his shot profile:

• 2pt: 14.2 per 100(55% freq) -> 10.9(43%)
• 3pt: 11.7(45%) -> 14.1(57%)
• Rim(within 4ft): 2.9(11%) -> 4.6(18%)
• Short mid-range(4-14ft): 7.8(30%) -> 5.9(23%)
• Long mid-range(14-3pt): 3.4(13%) -> 0.4(2%)

He has completely went away from the long 2s. Mostly trading them for more both pull up 3s & off the catch 3s. One stat that also relates to this is last year 19% of his 3s were either tight/very tightly contested. That has gone up to 27% this year.

He has also gone to the rim more compared to last year. Almost doubling the FGA per 100! That makes a huge difference, even if he's been quite bad at the rim. A terrible rim finisher that shoots around 55% is STILL so much better than settling for a shot worth 40%. That's essentially what he did when it comes to inside the arc. Instead of having a shot worth around 0.82 points where he took over 13% of his shots, he's now taking 18% of his shots at 1.08.

At the same time, it also has to be said that equally big reason for this scoring burst IS the hot 3pt shooting. That shouldn't be seen as a negative, but it is also a valid, simple reason. Going from 39% to 48% is going to boost your scoring a lot.

Shooting 50% off the catch helps a lot in his spot ups and transition. But the biggest thing that has helped his on-ball scoring is the improvement off-dribble. Last year, he shot 34% on 89 3s off 2+ dribbles. That has gone up to 43% on 28 so far. Almost a 10% jump is WILD. These kind of 3s have always been one of his main weaknesses and this can be the biggest game changer in his game if it continues to near this level. Being "that" level of a pull up threat can help a lot.

Finally, here are some links to videos of his scoring if you want to see on film how exactly he's been getting those points:

• Transition scoring
• Spot ups & off-ball
• Handoffs 3pt
• P&R 3pt
• P&R drives
• Isolations

So, that's everything when it comes to Herro's scoring. How he's been used hasn't changed much, if at all. What has changed is simply effectiveness across the board. That is helped with some small sample hot shooting, particularly in transition and off spot ups. Almost half of his offense is through those 2(112/249pts). But equally as important it's the drastic change in shot diet, being more aggressive, being more willing to take more contested 3s, eliminating the pull up 2, willing to play through contact, and being better off the dribble. Right now, he's been hooping.

Let me know what you think of his start! Have you seen anything else that has changed or improved in his game? And honestly, do you think this is both sustainable or changes things a lot for them right now to compete?