https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-farm-system-statcast-hitting-rankings/
https://archive.md/O8Ezf#selection-873.0-873.45
Very interesting pair of articles that takes a bit of an analytic look at minor league hitting prospects and development. The Jays rank surprising well in terms of both individual performances as well as an organization as a whole.
The main statistic used here is HIT+ which runs on a scale similar to wRC+ (where 100 is average) which uses factors such as contact rate, 90th percentile exit velocity, chase rate, barrel rate and expected weighted-on-base-average-on-contact (xwOBAcon). The value also takes into factors such as sample size and types of pitches seen.
Individually the Blue Jays had 6 prospects finish at the top of their age group in HIT+.
- Sam Shaw (19) had a HIT+ of 119 which ranked 8th for his age group.
- Josh Kasevich (23) had a HIT+ of 127 which ranked 3rd for his age group.
- Leo Jimenez (23) had a HIT+ of 126 which ranked 5th for his age group.
- RJ Schreck (23) had a HIT+ of 124 which ranked 7th for his age group.
- Alan Roden (25) had a HIT+ of 123 which ranked 4th for his age group.
- Addison Barger (25) had a HIT+ of 119 which ranked 8th for his age group.
The lists are filled with some of the very best prospects in baseball so being included on the list can only be seen as a good thing.
The initial thought might be that the Jays would rank poorly offensively, they actually rank really well across the board as an organization.
- In terms of HIT+ the Jays as an organizational have a score of 110 which ranks them 6th overall in large part due to the trade deadline additions of Schreck (124), Clase (114), Wagner (119), Loperfido (117), Pinango (114) & McAdoo (109). Without such moves the Jays would have ranked near league average (12th).
While HIT+ can be carried by 1 factor or another…the Jays rank decently well across the board.
- 90th Percentile Exit Velocity was the Blue Jays weakest factor as their average of 101.4 mph came in ranked 11th. It was the only factor where they did not rank within the Top 10. Although, they were much improved from last season.
- The Jays over the seasons have focused in on Contact Rate and Chase Rate and that is supported here as TOR along with SDP & DET were the only organizations to rank in the Top 10 of them. TOR & SDP are the only organizations to do so in consecutive seasons. The organization ranked 5th in Contact Rate (72.9%) and 7th in Chase Rate (25.3%)
- Most surprising despite prioritizing getting on base the Jays ranked 8th overall in Barrel Rate (13.2%). Ranking not too far behind very power focused organizations like NYY, CHC & MIN. Jays prospects make not only a lot of contact but some very good contact at that.
2 comments
RJ Schrek is powered by memes and dreams. The man is going to become a mainstay in the jays lineup and every time he hits a homer the PA system will blast “THIS IS MA SWAMP DONKEY!”
I knew that the Jays were very good at targeting the hit tool and plate discipline, but I was pleasantly surprised to see the power metrics liking us so much, being at least above average in barrel rate and 90th percentile exit velocity.
I’ve been critical in the past about the Jays minor league hitting philosophy, but I’ll eat my words here. Some of the more recent draft picks in Nimmala, Keys, Parker have probably helped in the power department, as well as a few of our trade acquisitions.
Very glad to see the power numbers begin to look promising while also seemingly not having to sacrifice plate discipline and hitting for contact.