**What’s next?** You need two hands to count the [number of Pelicans](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/no) currently out multiple weeks — a group Alvarado recently joined with [a strained hamstring](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/42348423/sources-pelicans-lose-jose-alvarado-hamstring-6-weeks) — so it’s going to be a while before we see a healthy version of this team. If or when that happens, they’ll likely be digging out of a huge hole; New Orleans would have to play at a 54-win pace per 82 games to even match last season’s 49-33 record, a task that will only get tougher from here.
Were the odds of us making the playoffs supposed to get higher after all our starters were injured?
Well yeah, everyone is injured
I think it’s unlikely that we make the playoffs, objectively speaking, but our true odds have got to be better than 6.1%. I give us at least a 15-20% chance, for the simple reason that it is primarily injuries that has caused our poor record, as opposed to actually game play.
Why panic? we already know the season is cooked in the same fashion as those before.
I think we got unlucky from the start this year. People seem to panic when we don’t make the playoffs THIS YEAR, but we have all the pieces.
The team has to start stringing wins together pretty soon or the hole will be too deep to get out of even after everyone is back.
I remember having a worse team, a worse record, but making a fat fucking run into the playoffs a few years back
Didn’t need ESPN to know the situation is bleak with all our guys missing
We had decent odds to make the playoffs in the pre-season. Of course we’re going to be in the bottom left.
10 comments
# High panic!
# [New Orleans Pelicans](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/no/new-orleans-pelicans) (4-10)
**Preseason playoff odds:** 55.8%
**Current playoff odds:** 6.1%
**Difference:** -49.7%
The Pelicans’ decline has been dramatic this season, as a team that improved from 21st in net rating in 2021-22 to 10th in 2022-23 to sixth last season, is back down to 28th. The simplest explanation for New Orleans’ struggles is injuries: Four of the team’s five leading returning players by 2023-24 minutes — Williamson, Herb Jones, [CJ McCollum](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2490149/cj-mccollum), [Trey Murphy III](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4397688/trey-murphy-iii) — have missed at least half of the team’s games so far, and offseason addition (and former All-Star) [Dejounte Murray](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3907497/dejounte-murray) has suited up for one game. A full-strength Pelicans roster would be faring better, without question, but the few well-known players who’ve been in the lineup are also producing below last season’s levels, with [Brandon Ingram](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3913176/brandon-ingram) (minus-0.4 points/100 possessions), [Jose Alvarado](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4277869/jose-alvarado) (minus-0.3) and [Javonte Green](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2596112/javonte-green) (minus-0.9) seeing big dips in their [Estimated RAPTOR](https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast?open=false#%C2%A7nba-estimated-raptor-leaderboard) ratings.
**What’s next?** You need two hands to count the [number of Pelicans](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/no) currently out multiple weeks — a group Alvarado recently joined with [a strained hamstring](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/42348423/sources-pelicans-lose-jose-alvarado-hamstring-6-weeks) — so it’s going to be a while before we see a healthy version of this team. If or when that happens, they’ll likely be digging out of a huge hole; New Orleans would have to play at a 54-win pace per 82 games to even match last season’s 49-33 record, a task that will only get tougher from here.
Were the odds of us making the playoffs supposed to get higher after all our starters were injured?
Well yeah, everyone is injured
I think it’s unlikely that we make the playoffs, objectively speaking, but our true odds have got to be better than 6.1%. I give us at least a 15-20% chance, for the simple reason that it is primarily injuries that has caused our poor record, as opposed to actually game play.
Why panic? we already know the season is cooked in the same fashion as those before.
I think we got unlucky from the start this year. People seem to panic when we don’t make the playoffs THIS YEAR, but we have all the pieces.
The team has to start stringing wins together pretty soon or the hole will be too deep to get out of even after everyone is back.
I remember having a worse team, a worse record, but making a fat fucking run into the playoffs a few years back
Didn’t need ESPN to know the situation is bleak with all our guys missing
We had decent odds to make the playoffs in the pre-season. Of course we’re going to be in the bottom left.
Look at Detroit.