Interesting breakdown of the Chiefs offense by Sheil Kapadia
“The Chiefs have an explosive play problem.
Happy “What’s wrong with the Chiefs?” Week to all who celebrate. It’s happening a little later this year than usual. (I think that has something to do with the lunar calendar?) Sure, some people *tried* to get ahead of it in October and even September, but given that the team started out 9-0, the movement didn’t pick up a lot of followers. In Week 11, though, the Chiefs finally lost a game, 30-21 to the Bills in Buffalo. It was just the fifth time in 124 games with Mahomes as the starter that they lost by more than eight points—just a 4 percent occurrence! So now we get to have the discussion.
Let’s first establish some context. The Chiefs are not a juggernaut, but at 9-1, they still have the best record in the AFC and are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFL. They [are fifth](https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa) in DVOA. They are second in Super Bowl odds (to the Lions) and first in the AFC. They are on the short list of favorites to hoist the Lombardi.
Having said that, the Chiefs have flaws, and they are not as dominant as they’ve been in previous seasons. The Chiefs are 10th in point differential at plus-49, and they are an NFL-best 7-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer. So what are the areas where they might not be quite as strong as they were in the past? The defense isn’t the issue. Last season, the Chiefs finished seventh in defensive DVOA—their best ranking of the Mahomes era. This season, they are also seventh. What about special teams? Yup, that’s a good one. They’ve seen a dropoff there. The Chiefs [are 18th in special teams DVOA](https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa) this season. They were sixth last season.
And then we get to everyone’s favorite topic: the Chiefs offense. They [rank eighth in DVOA](https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/offense-team-dvoa), second in success rate, and seventh in EPA per drive. Those three metrics tell us different things. DVOA, for example, takes into account the strength of the defenses they’re going up against. Success rate tells us how often the Chiefs produce a positive play, but it gives less weight to things like turnovers and explosive plays. In other words, a 4-yard completion on third-and-10 is treated the same as an interception. Both are deemed unsuccessful plays. And finally, EPA takes things like turnovers and explosive plays into account, but it doesn’t factor for the strength of the opponents.
The most interesting thing to me about the Chiefs is that their success rate through 11 weeks (47.3 percent) is nearly identical to their average success rate with Mahomes from 2018 to 2023 (47.6 percent). On any given snap, their likelihood to produce a positive play is pretty much the same as it’s always been. If you’re a Chiefs fan, that’s good news. This offense isn’t broken. This season, only the Lions are more likely to produce a positive play on any given snap.
Now, the bad news. The Chiefs’ explosive play rate is a *disaster*. The Chiefs are producing an explosive play on just 8.4 percent of their snaps. That ranks tied for 29th—ahead of only the Raiders and the Giants. If we look at just explosive pass plays, they rank 24th. And on run plays, they rank 32nd. No team is less likely than the Chiefs to produce an explosive play on the ground. Last year, the Chiefs ranked 16th in explosive play rate—21st on pass plays and ninth on run plays. The other issue plaguing this offense is turnovers. The Chiefs rank 24th in EPA lost on turnovers.
The bottom line is that the Chiefs offense still works on a down-to-down basis. But because of the lack of explosives and the turnovers, they are losing in high-leverage spots, and their margin for error has shrunk. Is this going to continue the rest of the way? It doesn’t have to. Maybe getting Isiah Pacheco back will lead to more big gains on the ground. Maybe rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy will get more opportunities downfield. Maybe Mahomes’s chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins will continue to improve. And if none of those things happen, guess what? They can *still* get to the Super Bowl playing this methodical style. That’s the luxury of having Mahomes. So I see the flaws. I acknowledge the flaws. But my overall panic level is low.”
WE KNOW
Hit 1/2 of the Worthy deep targets and we have a solution
Which is not new. We need to continue to practice connecting with Worthy.
My take on this is that unfortunately, a lot of our deep routes are calibrated to Hollywood due to extensive practice during the offseason and we’re in the process of readjusting. It’ll take time.
Next 4 games will be telling for sure.
Panthers, Raiders, Chargers then Browns. We shouldn’t lose any of those, but watch and see if they are 1 score games with all of us having heart attacks in the 4th quarter.
Winning games like that just isn’t sustainable….usually. 😁
[deleted]
But last week people in this sub were acting like this was a deliberate and mature style of play and that it was needed to win championships. Turning Mahomes into a super charged dink and dunk specialist with a limited # of possessions is not something to be celebrated.
Yeah, yeah, yeah…
And “small ball” will never win a World Series.
Mahomes gotta be more accurate down the field
Worthy gotta get his feet in bounds more
And honestly just gotta take more shots
And have. That Bills game was a pretty perfect encapsulation of the Chiefs weaknesses. If we hit 2-3 of the big ones that didn’t hit, it’s possibly a totally different game.
We gotta save the wasps and corn dogs for the Playoffs. Can’t be using our best plays in the regular season like some casuals.
This team has “underperformed” this season and will cruise into the playoffs. I don’t see anything to panic about, great teams know when to turn up and turn it on and this is a great team.
13 comments
Interesting breakdown of the Chiefs offense by Sheil Kapadia
“The Chiefs have an explosive play problem.
Happy “What’s wrong with the Chiefs?” Week to all who celebrate. It’s happening a little later this year than usual. (I think that has something to do with the lunar calendar?) Sure, some people *tried* to get ahead of it in October and even September, but given that the team started out 9-0, the movement didn’t pick up a lot of followers. In Week 11, though, the Chiefs finally lost a game, 30-21 to the Bills in Buffalo. It was just the fifth time in 124 games with Mahomes as the starter that they lost by more than eight points—just a 4 percent occurrence! So now we get to have the discussion.
Let’s first establish some context. The Chiefs are not a juggernaut, but at 9-1, they still have the best record in the AFC and are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFL. They [are fifth](https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa) in DVOA. They are second in Super Bowl odds (to the Lions) and first in the AFC. They are on the short list of favorites to hoist the Lombardi.
Having said that, the Chiefs have flaws, and they are not as dominant as they’ve been in previous seasons. The Chiefs are 10th in point differential at plus-49, and they are an NFL-best 7-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer. So what are the areas where they might not be quite as strong as they were in the past? The defense isn’t the issue. Last season, the Chiefs finished seventh in defensive DVOA—their best ranking of the Mahomes era. This season, they are also seventh. What about special teams? Yup, that’s a good one. They’ve seen a dropoff there. The Chiefs [are 18th in special teams DVOA](https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa) this season. They were sixth last season.
And then we get to everyone’s favorite topic: the Chiefs offense. They [rank eighth in DVOA](https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/offense-team-dvoa), second in success rate, and seventh in EPA per drive. Those three metrics tell us different things. DVOA, for example, takes into account the strength of the defenses they’re going up against. Success rate tells us how often the Chiefs produce a positive play, but it gives less weight to things like turnovers and explosive plays. In other words, a 4-yard completion on third-and-10 is treated the same as an interception. Both are deemed unsuccessful plays. And finally, EPA takes things like turnovers and explosive plays into account, but it doesn’t factor for the strength of the opponents.
The most interesting thing to me about the Chiefs is that their success rate through 11 weeks (47.3 percent) is nearly identical to their average success rate with Mahomes from 2018 to 2023 (47.6 percent). On any given snap, their likelihood to produce a positive play is pretty much the same as it’s always been. If you’re a Chiefs fan, that’s good news. This offense isn’t broken. This season, only the Lions are more likely to produce a positive play on any given snap.
Now, the bad news. The Chiefs’ explosive play rate is a *disaster*. The Chiefs are producing an explosive play on just 8.4 percent of their snaps. That ranks tied for 29th—ahead of only the Raiders and the Giants. If we look at just explosive pass plays, they rank 24th. And on run plays, they rank 32nd. No team is less likely than the Chiefs to produce an explosive play on the ground. Last year, the Chiefs ranked 16th in explosive play rate—21st on pass plays and ninth on run plays. The other issue plaguing this offense is turnovers. The Chiefs rank 24th in EPA lost on turnovers.
The bottom line is that the Chiefs offense still works on a down-to-down basis. But because of the lack of explosives and the turnovers, they are losing in high-leverage spots, and their margin for error has shrunk. Is this going to continue the rest of the way? It doesn’t have to. Maybe getting Isiah Pacheco back will lead to more big gains on the ground. Maybe rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy will get more opportunities downfield. Maybe Mahomes’s chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins will continue to improve. And if none of those things happen, guess what? They can *still* get to the Super Bowl playing this methodical style. That’s the luxury of having Mahomes. So I see the flaws. I acknowledge the flaws. But my overall panic level is low.”
WE KNOW
Hit 1/2 of the Worthy deep targets and we have a solution
Which is not new. We need to continue to practice connecting with Worthy.
My take on this is that unfortunately, a lot of our deep routes are calibrated to Hollywood due to extensive practice during the offseason and we’re in the process of readjusting. It’ll take time.
Next 4 games will be telling for sure.
Panthers, Raiders, Chargers then Browns. We shouldn’t lose any of those, but watch and see if they are 1 score games with all of us having heart attacks in the 4th quarter.
Winning games like that just isn’t sustainable….usually. 😁
[deleted]
But last week people in this sub were acting like this was a deliberate and mature style of play and that it was needed to win championships. Turning Mahomes into a super charged dink and dunk specialist with a limited # of possessions is not something to be celebrated.
Yeah, yeah, yeah…
And “small ball” will never win a World Series.
Mahomes gotta be more accurate down the field
Worthy gotta get his feet in bounds more
And honestly just gotta take more shots
And have. That Bills game was a pretty perfect encapsulation of the Chiefs weaknesses. If we hit 2-3 of the big ones that didn’t hit, it’s possibly a totally different game.
We gotta save the wasps and corn dogs for the Playoffs. Can’t be using our best plays in the regular season like some casuals.
This team has “underperformed” this season and will cruise into the playoffs. I don’t see anything to panic about, great teams know when to turn up and turn it on and this is a great team.
Mahomes has a deep ball problem.