At the Cubs’ end-of-season press conference back in early October — which is when they happen if you don’t make the postseason — some things Cubs President Jed Hoyer said stood out to me, in particular. Or at least, how he said these things. In discussing Cody Bellinger’s then-coming decision to opt in or out of his deal for 2025, the Cubs president seemed to imply that the expectation was that Cody Bellinger was going to opt out of his deal for 2025, because of how good his season actually was under the hood, and because of how many options he’d have in free agency.
Brett clocked the comments the same way as they were happening, so I don’t think I’m sitting here in pure hindsight.
At face, the comments made a certain sense, but there was something about it that seemed a little too eager. A little too hopeful.
And it turns out, it was.
On November 2, Bellinger opted into his 2025 contract with the Cubs, and less than a week later, Jed Hoyer was reportedly trying feverishly to trade him. That, alone, isn’t groundbreaking news — we learned about the Cubs’ desire to trade Cody Bellinger last week, and there are arguments for why it could be the right thing to do. But the way Bob Nightengale just explained the effort to make a trade sure paints the Cubs in a poorer light. And I mean that by both definitions of the word:
‘The Cubs, whose 2016-era championship window closed abruptly, are a cash cow with one of the largest markets in baseball. Yet, instead of negotiating with any of the marquee free agents, they instead are focusing on the mid-market players. They’re probably out on Soto, Burnes, Fried and Snell.
The only thing that could change their plan is if they’re able to unload first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger.
The worst-kept secret at the GM meetings was the Cubs offering Bellinger to anyone and everyone. So far, no team has expressed strong interest.
“Come on,” one GM said, “who’s going to touch that contract? The risk is just too great for the production.”‘
Like Rosenthal and Sharma before him, Nightengale reports that any effort to move Bellinger this winter will necessarily require the Cubs to either (a) eat money in the deal or (b) take a bad contract in return. I spent a lot of time going over why dumping Bellinger JUST to dump him would be a mistake last week, so I won’t rehash those points here. But, yeah. This is definitely not what you want to hear at the outset of yet another offseason in which the Cubs need to make a real impact on this roster.
But once again, I will ask: Why do the Cubs seem so eager to save money this offseason? They’re not in on Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes? Okay, fine. Whatever. That’s business as usual in the Jed Hoyer era, and is more about the lengthy terms of the projected deals than about the 2025/26 budget. But being out on all of the top tier free agents? Potentially needing (or at least being way too eager) to move Cody Bellinger to make other moves of significance? It’s weird. It stands out.
Even before non-tendering or DFA-ing Yency Almonte ($2.2M), Christian Bethancourt ($2.5M), Mike Tauchman ($2.9M), Nick Madrigal ($1.9M), Patrick Wisdom ($3M), Adbert Alzolay ($2.3M), Trey Wingenter ($1.4M), Jimmy Herget ($900K), the Cubs had a good deal of payroll space available below their 2024 expenditure (~$238M). And that’s excluding the fact that the first tier of the luxury tax moved up another $4M this offseason.
But now, with all of those exits, the Cubs luxury tax payroll sits at ~$187M per Roster Resource. That gives them $54 million with which to work below the first tier of the 2025 luxury tax ($241M), even including Bellinger’s return.
So if they’re not in on the top or near-top of free agency, why in the world would the Cubs need to trade Bellinger? Again, even with his salary on the books, it’s not like they’re close to breaking the bank.
Well, one explanation would be that they’re trying to cut payroll from last year’s luxury tax-tickling level.
Now, the Cubs might argue any Bellinger trade would happen only to open up at-bats for their other top prospects. Which, sure. That might happen in the process, and there are some legit prospects who could be ready to contribute. But dumping Bellinger is not necessary to achieve that goal, and it’s certainly not a way to set high expectations for the 2025 season.
We can all agree that the market says Cody Bellinger is overpaid *relative to his expected production*, but that does not mean he’s not a good and useful player. In fact, I’d argue that he’s flatly one of the Cubs’ expected best players for 2025. Add to that the fact that his presence helps the team out across the board in ancillary ways: (1) Insurance for PCA and Michael Busch, (2) vastly improved defense in right field, and (3) provides a path for Suzuki to stay healthy and productive at DH.
I would be on board for a Bellinger trade if it meant the Cubs were going to go hog-wild in free agency (… even though, again, they already have a TON of payroll flexibility to do just that). But the clear trickle of rumors and behavior thus far tells us that’s not the case. So, yeah. Color me pessimistic on the Cubs suddenly spending huge sums this offseason.
I’ll caveat this entire story by reminding you of Jed Hoyer’s notoriously clandestine M.O., and extreme reluctance to let financial info slip out. Maybe he’ll surprise us all the way he did with Craig Counsell last offseason. But if he was really trying to offload Cody Bellinger on “everyone and anyone,” the way Nightengale tells it, my confidence for any sort of confidence-inspiring offseason is waning.
Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
As a related aside, there seems to be at least one clear path for a Cody Bellinger trade this offseason: The Yankees whiffing on Juan Soto. If New York’s American League squad comes up short in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, they’ll still want to make a number of additions and Cody Bellinger fits a number of their needs. Not only have the Yankees targeted Bellinger in the past, they could also use his positional flexibility as well as any squad (and, of course, have just about as much payroll capacity as any team in baseball). And, hey, maybe that short porch in right field will be more welcoming than the windy Wrigley Field was this past year. I could imagine Bellinger being kind of a monster at Yankee Stadium.
So I guess the good news is that Juan Soto is heavily expected to sign with the Mets and possibly even before the Winter Meetings? If that happens, I guess we can expect the Cubs and Yankees to talk and Jed Hoyer’s offseason – whatever it is he has planned – to get underway? Maybe? Fingers crossed for some positive surprises.
Brett Taylor contributed to this post.